NFL odds: Early spreads, betting lines for AFC, NFC ...

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We have made it! All 256 regular season and – since this year – twelve playoff games are in the books and there is just one matchup left to decide who will be crowned NFL champions. There are so many storylines leading up to the big game – the GOAT Tom Brady versus the kid Patrick Mahomes, two of the all-time great tight-ends on either side of the ball wearing number 87, the Buccaneers becoming the first ever team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, Andy Reid after all this time of coming up short, potentially winning back-to-back titles, while Bruce Arians is looking to finally get his first ring as a head coach and potentially becoming the oldest one to earn one in history, and many others.
As I do every year, I wanted to give a detailed look ahead to the big game, where I break down who these teams are, kind of how they got here and how they match up against each other. To do so I put together analysis of each offense and defense, plus where each could have the advantage, then I take a look back at when these two teams first met back in week 12, explain what they have and/or should have learned from it, give you an X-factor on either side of the ball for both and finally hand out my score prediction, while explaining what I believe will happen.
Let’s dive into it!
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Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense:

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The Tampa Bay offense has been transitioning throughout the season. Early on it was Bruce Arians’ system with a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel, trying to establish a gap-scheme power run game and taking play-action shots off it from under center. And then a second offense was kind of implemented, which was more suited to what Tom Brady was used to in New England, where they spread the field and attack defenses with the quick game. However, it really was two separate playbooks almost, that they worked in. I think we have seen a little more of a symbiotic relationship, which I believe Byron Leftwich has had a big role in putting together. They motion their backs in and out or use their receivers as pre-snap coverage indicators at a much higher rate, letting Brady be surgical in the quick passing game, but still attacking vertically and using Gronk and the tight-ends as that extra in-line blocker to get enough time, because Brady still more than enough juice in his arm to push the ball down the field. Since week ten, Cameron Brate has also played about 41 percent of the snaps and I believe he gives them more versatility in what they can be from two tight-end personnel, since he can basically be a big slot for them. Their receiving corp as a whole offers a lot of versatility, whether it’s Mike Evans moving more into the slot this season, Antonio Brown being able to line up at any of the receiver spots or specialists like Scotty Miller to attack down the field.
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It’s a well-established narrative that if you can get to Tom Brady early, he becomes a much less effective passer and if you look at the five games, that they have come up short in 2020 (Saints twice, Bears, Rams and Chiefs), they have lost the battle up front offensively. Since their week 13 bye, following their last loss to Kansas City (including the playoffs), they have gone undefeated whilst averaging 34.3 points per game, with at least 30 in all three postseason battles. Looking at those games in particular, the defense was dominant at New Orleans and set up scoring opportunities directly, but against Washington and Green Bay, they completed a combined 11 passes of 20+ yards. So it is still very much about the big plays through the air (finished top three in 20+ and 40+ yard passes), but the efficiency of this offense has really gone up to a different level. At Detroit they were so dominant that Brady sat out the entire second half, then they scored on all but one of their possessions against Atlanta and now over this three-game road playoff run, they have had only three combined three-and-outs and turnovers in each of them. A big key to that has been the Bucs offensive line keeping Brady clean, as he has gotten sacked only 11 times over their active seven-game win streak and just once in all but two of those contests. To go with having better solutions to beat the blitz in their system.
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https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/5o8inlufbif61/player
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Unlike a lot of modern NFL offenses, that have incorporated more RPO elements and try to create numbers advantages in the run game with spread sets, Bruce Arians still brings that old-school flair with multiple tight-end sets and the power run game. There’s not a lot of wide zone blocking, but rather they create vertical movement at the point of attack with a heavy dose of duo, get those big offensive linemen on the move on toss plays and then I love watching those receivers get involved as blockers in the box – especially Chris Godwin, who they seriously have leading up in the hole or trapping three-techniques. When they run play-action off those looks, they use a lot of seven- and eight-man protections and try to hit defenses over the top, whether it’s deep crossers and posts or straight go routes down the sideline. As much success as they have with that recipe, when you look at the analytics, their tendency to run the ball on early downs shows there’s plenty of improvement in terms of efficiency, which is something I want to see them do in this game, to not get behind the chains and allow the Chiefs defense to be as creative on third down. When they go into shotgun and spread the field more, they look for ways to attack the middle of the field with their inside receivers primarily and when they see one-on-one on the outside with Mike Evans or Antonio Brown, they will take their shots. Double-moves are a large ingredient to what they do, especially out-and-up routes.
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For the Chiefs defense, they looked like they had carried over that momentum from last year’s Super Bowl run into 2020, not giving up more than 20 points in any of their first four games. In week five, the Raiders out of nowhere exploded for 40 points and handed them their only loss outside of week 17, when they rested several starters, before having three more great showings at Buffalo, Denver and then hosting the Jets. But since then, they have allowed at least 24 points in six of their final eight games. Part of that negative turnaround was the injuries they have had in the secondary and the lack of takeaways (one per game). The biggest piece however has been their inability to keep teams out of the end-zone when they got close. Looking at the whole regular season, no other team has allowed their opponents to create a higher rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (74.1%). That’s why so many of their games stayed close deep into the fourth quarter, which I’ll get to more in a little bit. When you look into play-calling, you can see that they played a lot more zone-coverage and rushed only four or five, because they simply didn’t have the guys their could trust to cover in man. Outside of one game, where they felt like they had a great feel for the opposing route-patterns, which I’ll get to soon.
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Yet, once again, that unit has stepped up in the postseason and the two things that stand out to me are defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant game-planning and their ability to stop one-dimensional offenses. When I look at what they did against the Browns, if you take away one 23-yard burst from Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s elite running back duo was held to 78 yards on 18 carries, as Spagnuolo gave their opponents a lot of looks that they didn’t want to run into and then had a safety drop out of the box late. Then in the AFC title game, to take away Buffalo’s dynamic passing offense (which ranked top three in all major categories), they played a lot of cover-two and two-man, where their DBs pressed the hell out of the Bills receivers and then they played a lot of different versions of those two-high shells, like invert cover-two or bringing Tyrann Mathieu down as the MIKE in Tampa-two basically, which forced Josh Allen to hold onto the ball. What I can promise you is that they aren’t afraid of bringing heavy pressure and then having their coverage defenders well-schooled in the concepts they should focus on taking away primarily while the Honeybadger is often allowed to move pretty freely as the robber. Frank Clark hasn’t quite lived up to his contract, but he has had big moments in the playoffs these last two years, Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive interior D-linemen in the game, who they can move all over the line, and they have several big bodies they can rotate through to stay fresh and eat double-teams.
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Chiefs offense vs. Bucs defense:

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As much as we all love the Kansas City offense and we see them as this unit that blows us away with flashy play-designs and throws over the top, they have really been alternating their approach over the course of the season as well. When you go all the way back to their season-opener against the Texans, you see that they used more of a West Coast and RPO-oriented attack to punish a defense that played a lot of soft zones and invited them to throw the ball short. However, two weeks later at Baltimore, they were destroying the Ravens’ single-high safety and man-coverage principles by letting their speedy receivers streak down the field and call double-moves at 15+ yards of depth. Then three weeks after that, when they found themselves in a rainy setting at Buffalo against a soft interior run defense, they pounded the ball 46 times for almost 250 yards on the ground. So they have shown the ability to adapt to their opponents. However, with several injuries on the offensive line – most notably a turnstile at left guard and those two tackles, which will now both be out for the Super Bowl – and opposing defenses taking the approach of using a lot more split-safety looks and trying to take away the big play, they have turned back into being more methodical in their plan and putting together long drives. In the AFC Championship game in particular, with Patrick Mahomes coming off a turf toe injury, their gameplan and drive charts look almost like what they used to with Alex Smith, in terms of the West Coast designs and those glance or slant routes on the backside of RPO concepts.
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When you look at this KC offense, they have had large stretches of getting static in games and as great as they are at moving the ball between the 20s, they are only 14th league-wide in red-zone touchdown percentage (61%). Some people may not realize this, but since their week eight blowout win over the Jets, they had not won a game by more than six points until the AFC title game. That is due to a combination of tendency to start slow, their poor red-zone efficiency and the inability to run the ball consistently with all the movement they have had on the O-line, having rushed for 135+ yards just three times all season. With that being said, Darrell Williams has been a big factor as a power runner these playoff and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be back to full health. In addition to that, they find other ways to put the ball in the hands of their skill-players quickly, using the speed of their receiving crew on bubbles and speed sweeps, to go along with well-designed longer-developing screens, such as the double swing-fake and then middle screen to Travis Kelce. They also use their star tight-end quite a bit on those power shovels in short-yardage situations and I believe their most effective run play is the speed option, because of the way Mahomes can manipulate that end-man at the line.
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While I have seen them run anything from 23 personnel to going empty with Kelce detached from the line (so basically a five-wide situation), there are a few things the Chiefs love to run. Their go-to formation is a three-by-one set with Kelce as the single receiver, mostly flexed out wide, but also in-line. In 2019 they ran three verticals from that trips side and then had Kelce on a shallow crosser over and over again. This year they still run it quite a bit, but they let the tight-end run more corner or curl routes, to allow inside receivers from the other side attack the middle of the field and isolate their backs against the linebackers, in addition to running power that way. And then they motion someone like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman across, which for the most part gets opposing defense to move into two-high coverages and play off. So if KC runs either one up the seams, there’s usually a ton of space underneath. The two things that take this offense to the next level however, are trick plays and off-script production. What makes Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy great is not only their ability to exploit defensive schemes, but they are so creative and don’t shy away from throwing reverse passes, underhand shovels to their fullback or digging up tape from the 1948 Rose Bowl. And then there’s all the thing Mahomes can do off script. That guy is so slippery to extend plays while continuing to look downfield and his pass-catchers are so adept at adjusting on the fly and finding the open areas, especially that sixth sense-like connection he has with Kelce.
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I have been higher on the Bucs defense for pretty much the entire year, which was really up and down for them as a unit. They have had moments of dominance, like keeping three straight opponents to under 50 rushing yards each or holding Green Bay’s number-one ranked offense to just 10 points in their regular season meeting, but they also gave up a combined 72 points in their first two meetings with the Saints and got lit up for over 450 yards through the air when hosting these same Chiefs back in week 12 (I’ll analyze that matchup in detail in our next segment). During this playoff run however, they have really stepped up in big moments to get them to this point. Whether it’s forcing four turnovers at New Orleans or sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and making a historically great red-zone offense settle for a couple of chip-shot field goals at Green Bay. When you look at their duo of edge rushers, Shaq Barrett is tied for the lead-league in QB hurries (24) and only three players in the NFL (all DBs) have forced more turnovers than Jason Pierre-Paul (six). Then they have the most dynamic linebacker tandem in all of football, which are heavily involved in their pressure packages and make it nearly impossible to get outside the tackle box in the run game, and now with Vita Vea back in the lineup, they have a wall on the inside that nobody can run on consistently. That’s how they finished the regular season as the clear number one run defense in the league. The secondary has been the problem child at times, especially when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has put them in pure man-coverage, but by moving their safeties around more to bracket and help in certain areas of the field, they have really improved in that department.
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Bowles is an aggressive play-caller by nature and they have created a lot of problems for opposing offenses by bringing one more than you can block (blitzed on 39% of plays). It has bitten them in their behind at times as well, but from what I have seen on tape, they have been more strategic in how they use it. Especially on third downs, I love how they have used their safeties as moving pieces, having them key on certain areas of the field or defending the sticks. In the NFC Championship game for example, one of the biggest plays of the afternoon was that Aaron Jones fumble at the start of the second half, when the Packers thought they had defeated the man-coverage with a shallow crosser to Jones whilst picking the underneath coverage, but Jordan Whitehead raced up from the other side of the field and jarred the ball loose just as the RB tried to turn upfield and convert on third down. That willingness to drive on routes is also apparent when they run quarters coverage and you see Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. break on the ball, looking to take somebody’s head off, while they are also heavily involved in their blitz packages. That combined with those guys coming off the edges, Ndamokung as a bully on the inside and a pretty unknown contributor in William Gholston has them ranking in the top five in sacks, pressure percentage, turnovers and tackles for loss.
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Examining the first matchup:

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Like I already mentioned, these two teams met back in week 12. The Chiefs jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first quarter, with Tyreek Hill racking up over 200 receiving yards over those 15 minutes already and the Bucs offense having just one combined first down over the first four possessions. Kansas City was in the red-zone once more mid-way through the second quarter, but a Shaquille Barrett strip-sack gave Brady & company the ball with some life and they were able to go on the board. That really got things to click and they fought their way back to being down only three, despite a couple of interceptions for Tampa Bay’s QB killing drives, because after scoring a touchdown on their initial try for the Chiefs, the Bucs defense really stepped up and held their opponents scoreless the rest of the way. However, Mahomes and Hill were able to run down the final four minutes and close the game, not giving Brady’s troops another chance, as they were coming off consecutive TD drives at the end, to secure a 27-24 victory.
While the Chiefs certainly took their foot off the gas pedal and tried to run the ball more, which KC outside of what Mahomes did, rushed for only 59 yards on 16 carries, I really thought this was a breaking point for Tampa Bay as a team. The offense started finding a groove and the only two drives that didn’t result in points from that final first half possession on, ended in picks. The defense on the other hand adjusted what they were doing in coverage and held that explosive KC attack to just ten points through the final three quarters. So while I think the result may be a little deceiving and the Chiefs could have easily won by double-digits, I look back at this as more of a launching pad for a team that has been the best in the NFC from that point on and now represents that conference in the big game, with a chance to learn from their early mistakes. Here are a few things that really stood out to me when they first met:
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When you look back at the ridiculous first quarter Tyreek Hill had at Tampa Bay, what really stands out is how much he was left one-on-one in coverage, often times with Carlton Davis, who has had a good season in general, but is a bigger corner who ran in the low 4.5s at the combine – no way can he keep up consistently against the fastest man in football. Davis did follow Tyreek for the most part, in particular when he was the single receiver or the #3 in that trips set with Travis Kelce soloed up on the opposite side. And the Chiefs did a great job of creating those one-on-ones with motions, where they moved Kelce in line or forced Davis to trail Hill, when he came across the formation from that trips alignment. Tyreek’s two long touchdown came on a subtle double-move after they motioned Kelce in and then on a streak across the field as the #3 from trips. That opened up the middle of the field later on for Kelce on hook and dig routes. Something else Kansas City did in the first half particularly was using more 12 and even 13 personnel than I had seen from them all season long. They still couldn’t run the ball a lick out of those sets, but they were effective in the passing game when used, especially chipping both those guys off the edges for Tampa, with one of the TEs and the running back.
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Tampa Bay called a lot of passing concepts with five-man protections early versus Kansas City bringing an array of blitzes (18 on 42 drop-backs). Especially on third downs, they were able to create at least one free rusher and then they had one or two defenders bailing out to take away the middle of the field. However, the Bucs made some very effective adjustments in the second half with hot-route to defeat those blitzes and putting that “bail defender” I will call it here in a bind, with a seam and spot route underneath for example. Of course the Chiefs still got two interceptions off Brady, that stopped promising drives, but when you look at what went wrong on those plays, first Ronald Jones overset to the outside trying to pick up Tyrann Mathieu off the edge, which led to an underthrown deep ball by Brady that was brought in by Bashaun Breeland along the sideline, as Scotty Miller got pushed out wide on his release, and then Mathieu got an INT of his own, as Mike Evans didn’t recognize the pressure and the ball went off the helmet of a blitzing Daniel Sorensen. In general, they were able to get the ball out quickly – especially to their tight-ends – to take advantage of limited resources in coverage and on the final two drives, when KC brought heat almost every single snap, they were punished for it.
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What each team can take away:

A couple of adjustments that I already saw in the first meeting or that I would like to see for each team would be:
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For the Bucs, the one thing I want to see most is using more dummy counts to show pressure pre-snap and give Brady a clear picture. Whether they try to block it up with the tight-ends and backs in protection or alert the hot read, the more information they can get from a Spagnuolo defense that prides itself on disguising pressures and coverages, they more adept they will be at defeating those. Once they do that, this could turn into a chess match, where the Chiefs show something different intentionally to make Brady kill the original play and then have to pull the ball down anyway, as the picture changes once the snap is off. And something else they should take advantage of is isolating what is a below-average group of linebackers in the passing game. Their RB core isn’t overly impressive in terms of their receiving abilities, especially when you look at the amount of drops we have seen from Leonard Fournette, but maybe they dig LeSean McCoy out more for this matchup and see if he can win on option routes and Tampa actually put AB in the backfield a couple of times in the backfield in their prior meeting, only they ran him downfield on wheel routes.
Defensively I already saw some stuff that I really through quarters two to four, in terms of using their safety tandem to bracket Hill and Kelce on a lot of snaps and on key downs in particular, forcing the ancillary pieces of that offense to beat them. I will mention one of my X-factors and his role in how that “gamble” could end up in the next segment, but those two guys accounted for 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s total passing yardage. So it’s certainly a chance worth taking and if you go with a game-plan, where your two stand-up guys on the second level are more involved in covering space underneath, as Tyreek may be utilized as more of a decoy that runs off the deep coverage, you can eliminate a lot of yardage after the catch, since teams that rush four and play coverage have been the ones giving the Chiefs some issues at times. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want the Bucs to not use their linebackers as blitzing threats. They should try to cover up the open gaps with those guys and create one-on-ones across the board, to enable their edge rushers to dominate against KC’s backup tackles. And something the Browns against them a few times, which I really liked, was rushing four or five, but not giving up assets in coverage, as they had somebody drop out to replace those blitzers and still create a free rusher.
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On the Chiefs’ side, I really liked the plan of chipping those two guys off the edges, as I already discussed, with an extra tight-end on the field, and while they are a spread-oriented offense, they had a lot of success when they used 12 personnel and threw the ball out of those looks. Because you can’t cover the whole field and have to take away what Kansas City sends vertically, those TEs and backs are often times all by themselves as they release into the flats. If that happens, like it did in their prior meeting, Mahomes has to take the free yardage and open up the deeper areas of the field again, as the Bucs have to re-adjust. The other thing I can tell you for sure is that the Bucs are obviously terrified of Tyreek burning them deep again and I’m sure there won’t be many chances to just attack their corners in man-coverage for big plays. So if they give Hill a lot soft cushions, they have to repeat what did to the Bills’ Tre’Davious White in terms of getting him the ball quickly on smoke routes and forcing those guys to tackle their electric receiver. While vertical prowess has to be used as a decoy, in terms of putting him in the slot of those three-by-one sets and having him run up the seam, while you attack underneath that. If you get Mecole Hardman one-on-one with their third-best CB on a post-corner route, while the flanker runs a hitch or square-in to bind the guy on the outside, that could be free money.
When I switch to defense, they had a ton of success bringing the blitz and not allowing Brady to step into throws. I would certainly say they were happy with that game-plan and they have reason to feel confident in the guys they have on the back-end, with the way they have showed out so far in the postseason. However, I have now talked about this at length and the Bucs have watched that tape over and over again. There is no way, those guys will be as ill-prepared to counter those pressure packages as they were back in November. Hell, Brady was dicing them up in the fourth quarter and I just detailed how those two picks came about. So Steve Spagnuolo can still bring the heat in certain situations and test Tampa Bay in their ability to pick up the blitz, but he has to be more strategic in how he uses it. The second thing to consider here is how you mask those linebackers, when you decide to utilize them more in coverage. Those players can be very effective as downhill thumpers in the run game, taking on pulling guards and filling holes, but they aren’t great in space. The Raiders in their two matchups against Kansas City had a lot of success attacking that area of the field with crossing routes. Chris Godwin and Gronk would be guys for that task, so maybe if you have them to one side, the opposite linebacker is the one you blitz and you bring down Sorensen or Mathieu to replace him in that hook-area, while looking to pick up anybody working across the field.
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X-factors:

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Buccaneers – Aaron Stinnie & Jamel Dean

I’m not going to give you a name like Scotty Miller here, because at this point, he is more likely to catch at least one deep ball than not. Ronald Jones’ health will be key as well, to give the Bucs that physical one-two punch out of the backfield. However, I’m going with their starting right guard Aaron Stinnie, who just got his first two starts of the year during these playoffs. The Bucs O-line has been dominant over the course of this seven-game win streak, like I already mentioned, holding opponents to just 11 sacks combined in those games and an average of 115 rushing yards during these playoffs, despite some tough competition. Alex Cappa was one of the road-graders on the interior for Tampa and only missed three total snaps throughout the regular season, before fracturing his ankle mid-way through their Wildcard game at Washington. Stinnie has since stepped since then and played pretty well, but he was also responsible for the only sack on Brady in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, when Kenny Clark went right through him on a bull rush. Well, the challenge will not get any easier, as I’d expect the Chiefs to line up Chris Jones in the B-gap as much as possible and try to exploit that matchup, on passing downs in particular. That’s why it will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the chains, unlike they did in the first matchup, and slow the rush down a little bit. Good thing Stinnie is lined up in-between arguably the top rookie right tackle of 2020 in rookie Tristan Wirfs and one of the better centers in Ryan Jensen, who will be looking to land a rib-shot on the guy over Stinnie, on the snaps that he is uncovered for.
As for the Bucs defense, that whole group of corners will have to step up in a major way, as they hope to slow down this explosive KC passing attack. Obviously, Carlton Davis’ name will come up a whole lot early on during the broadcast, as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz show what Tyreek Hill did to him early on in that week 12 meeting, and I could see Hill be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot a whole lot as well, but since I expect the safety to that side to keep his eyes constantly on him, when he lines up inside and makes it easier to bracket to some degree. Instead, I’m looking at Jamel Dean, who primarily is Tampa Bay’s field-side corner, unless they have Davis travelling with the opposing team’s number one receiver in certain matchups, which I wouldn’t expect, as the Bucs coaches go back to the tape of that first matchup. If Todd Bowles is smart – and from what I’ve seen from his as a coach, as much as aggressiveness may have hurt him at times, he is – he will build on what they did in the second half of that last game, when he used his two safeties to bracket Hill and Kelce almost every snap and forced the rest of that receiving corp to beat them. That puts the spotlight on guys like Sammy Watkins if they line him up more at Z, Demarcus Robinson and others, as those guys will pretty much be one-on-one with Dean. While the coverage numbers would indicate otherwise – in part because he draws the easiest assignments – to me he is the weakest link of this secondary and has been highly vulnerable to double-moves. The Chiefs might be burn him once more on Sunday.
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Chiefs – Andrew Wylie & Juan Thornhill

I thought about going Sammy Watkins here for the Chiefs offense, because he hasn’t suited up for them since week 16 and he hasn’t caught at least five passes in a game since week three, but averaged almost 100 receiving yards during last year’s playoff run. And you should also get accustomed with who wears number 48 for them, because Nick Keizer may have only caught six passes through the regular season, but he has become KC’s TE2 on the depth chart, playing just over a quarter of the snaps, and he could have a key role as an extra protector or chipping those edge rushers. Instead, I’m going with KC’s new starter at right tackle, who was slotted in at RG for all but one game so far. With blindside protector Eric Fisher unfortunately tearing his Achilles late in the AFC title game, Mike Remmers – who originally replaced Mitchell Schwartz on the right end of the line – is now switching sides and Andrew Wylie is sliding one spot outside. And he will face a tough task, after only having started one game on the edge against the Saints and now getting a heavy load of Shaq Barrett, who primarily rushed off that side. Let’s see if Wylie has the quickness in his kick-slide to counter Barrett’s speed and if the latter can get him on a dip-maneuver, like he beat Eric Fisher for a strip-sack on when these two teams last met. Steven Wisniewski will step in at Wylie’s original spot, but he has been one of the most dependable veteran linemen of the last decade in my opinion.
Defensively, I’m looking at the guy who missed Kansas City’s Super Bowl run last year, after an excellent rookie campaign. Their secondary was the star of the show against Buffalo, to send them to the Super Bowl, by disrupting route patterns at the line of scrimmage and not allowing receivers to separate late. A big reason they felt comfortable doing that was their safety tandem, with Tyrann Mathieu being in more of a robber role and dropping down in Tampa-2, to go along with the rangy Juan Thornhill, who broke up four passes and nearly picked off two of them. Steve Spagnuolo has those safeties doing a ton of late rotations, bailing Daniel Sorensen out for two-high shells, Honeybadger turning into a freely roaming robber and often times Thornhill ending up as the deep middle safety. As a single-high defender, he makes it almost impossible to push the ball down the hashes and he has the ability to make plays outside numbers. That will be crucial against all the deep balls Tampa Bay attempts and if one of those corners loses Mike Evans or Antonio Brown off the line by lunging in press, he could be the guy who decides if there will be a 40+ yard gain or maybe even an interception, if Brady puts too much air under the ball and tries to give his receiver time to track it. I can’t wait to watch that chess game between the Chiefs’ second-year safety and the ultimate student of the game in Brady, who will try to manipulate him with his eyes and body language, in order to keep the defender away from where he wants to go with the ball.
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Prediction:

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On paper, the Bucs have the better and healthier roster at this moment. You look at the offensive line in particular, where they still have four of their day one starters, while the Chiefs’ only full-time starter at his original position is center Austin Reiter and they will have two guys at those tackle spots, that have barely never played there for Kansas City. In terms of pass-catchers, it’s hard to argue that you could put anybody above the Chiefs group of track stars, but you don’t need a full hand to count off the teams that you would put ahead of the Bucs. There is also a pretty clear advantage on the defensive line for the home team, when you look at them being top three in pressure percentage, while KC is outside the top ten. And while I would give the Chiefs the nod in terms of the back-end, seeing how they have stepped up so far this postseason at full health, the Bucs’ group has made plenty of plays to take them to the Super Bowl and linebacker is not even a competition, watching Devin White and Lavonte David fly around the field. And of course, they have the number one rush defense, while the Chiefs rank 21st, and they are both average at running the ball themselves.
Schematically, Tampa certainly has to make some adjustments, as I have already discussed in length, having solutions for the blitz packages Steve Spagnuolo will throw at them and not allowing the Chiefs two main weapons to beat them. Right now, I give the clear advantage to the reigning champs when it comes to the coaching staffs and as great as Brady has been for two decades now and the how clutch he has been on the game’s biggest stage, we may be witnessing the one guy, who has a chance of dethroning him one day as the GOAT. Spags has a proven track record of success against Brady and I’m sure Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been in the lab, cooking up new things to throw at the Bucs defense, figuring out ways to score points all four quarters, but in the end it comes down to Patrick Mahomes being able to make plays nobody else in football can. Shaq Barrett and JPP could have a field day against these two backup tackles and I think Todd Bowles will also have a couple of things up his sleeves that the Chiefs haven’t seen, but last year’s Super Bowl MVP is the ultimate equalizer. He will shake out of a sack and find Kelce for a huge third-down conversion and he will have another like twelve-step drop and fire a deep ball off his back-foot to break Tampa’s neck.
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https://preview.redd.it/njt5v586cif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c20c0b875bf0f9fb7d19841500f93ec8ad78f42
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Chiefs 34 – Bucs 28

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So give me the Chiefs here and I’ll take the chalk with Mahomes earning MVP honors, winning back-to-back titles and setting the foundation for a potential dynasty in Kansas City.
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If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece!
Also make sure to check out my video on the ten biggest questions heading into Super Bowl LV!

I seem to remember someone doing this a few years back and really enjoying it, so I thought I'd give it a shot with the condensed schedule leaving so many games on the schedule each night. I'm ranking each game in three categories: competitiveness, importance, and style points/storylines (which includes star power, the style of basketball, and any intriguing stories to watch). I'll include a survey at the end where you can predict the winners of each game!
Let me know if this is something you'd like to see again!
10) Milwaukee Bucks (1-1) vs. New York Knicks (0-2) at 7:30 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Milwaukee -11
Last Meeting: January 14th, 2020. RJ Barrett drained five threes and Bobby Portis scored 20 off the bench, but the Bucks dominated the Knicks at Fiserv Forum 128-102. The two teams combined for a whopping 79 points in the third quarter.
The Bucks have won their last five meetings with the Knicks, with the last New York win coming in an overtime thriller at the Garden in December of 2018.
Competitiveness: A championship contender that dismantled the Warriors by 40 facing the Knicks on the tail end of a back-to-back. Not much else to say here. 1.5/10
Importance: This game is essentially a scheduled win for the Bucks, and a chance for the Knicks to test their young guys and let them grow up a little. Unfortunate that Obi Toppin will be on the sidelines for this one. 2/10
Style Points: The high-flying Bucks offense has been off to another hot start, topping the 120 point mark in both of their games. The Knicks' young guns have shown promise and made so flashy plays, but they also turn the ball over a lot. Neither team tends to foul a lot or shoot a ton of free throws, which will help game flow.
Some might keep an eye on Giannis' free throw shooting, but the real story to watch is RJ Barrett's three point accuracy. He lit it up from distance against Indiana, but struggled mightily against Philly. Can he take a step forward in that department this season?
Bonus points for the MSG crew calling this game. 6/10
Overall Rating: 3/10
9) Brooklyn Nets (2-0) vs. Charlotte Hornets (0-2) at 7:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: NBA TV
Spread: Brooklyn -7.5
Last Meeting: February 22nd, 2020. The Nets used a third quarter explosion to turn a comfortable win into a rout as they won 115-86. Luwawu-Cabarrot led the team in scoring with 21, while Garrett Temple of all people snagged eleven boards.
Competitiveness: The Nets have steamrolled over their competition so far, blowing out the Warriors and Celtics by 20+ points. The Hornets have struggled with two losses to non-contenders, and come into this game on the wrong end of a back-to-back. 1.5/10
Importance: A contending Nets team cannot afford to drop games like this one, especially in the early part of the season when there are so many eyeballs on KD and Kyrie. The Hornets could really use a positive performance to get their season headed in the right direction. 4/10
Style Points: The Nets have stars all over the court and have looked like a juggernaut early this season, making them one of the most intriguing teams to watch, and a fun one too, as they've played fast and made lots of threes. Charlotte ranked last in pace of play last season but seems to be trying to pick things up. You'll get the Charlotte crew for this game on NBA TV, and they call a fun game.
Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward are two guys to pay attention to- Rozier dropped 42 on a Cavs team that sucks at defending point guards. Is he headed for a breakout season? Hayward was shut down by the Thunder last night and will look to get things going. Plus LaMelo Ball! 8/10
Overall: 4.4/10
8) Golden State Warriors (0-2) vs. Chicago Bulls (0-2) at 8:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Golden State -2.5
Last Meeting: December 6th, 2019. Glenn Robinson III made the go-ahead layup with a minute left and a very different looking Warriors team beat the Bulls 100-98 in Chicago. Denzel Valentine was ejected in the third quarter for yelling at the Warriors' bench.
Competitiveness: The Warriors have been blown out by two great teams so far. The Bulls have been blown out by two mediocre teams and just played a deflating contest against the Pacers last night. 4.5/10
Importance: Both teams could really use their first win of the season. The Warriors cannot afford to lose to teams like the Bulls if they're going to contend for the playoffs. This probably still figures as a matchup of two non-contenders, though. 5.5/10
Style Points: The Bulls have lots of exciting young players, but they seem turnover-prone and have struggled to score. Neither team has been able to stop literally anyone on defense so far (lol thanks Golden State for taking Wiggins), so there's a chance this turns into one of those ridiculous shootouts where both teams top 70 in the first half.
Patrick Williams looked good in his first game against the Hawks, but the Pacers were able to shut him down. Watching him adjust to the breakneck pace of games and the new level of competition will be interesting. The Warriors will need to find other sources of offense besides Curry and Wiseman, and this game is a perfect chance for them to do so. Definitely opt for the Chicago broadcast if you tune in. 4.5/10
Overall: 4.8/10
** 7)Philadelphia 76ers (2-0) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (2-0) at 7:30 pm EST**
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Philadelphia -6
Last Meeting: February 26th, 2020. The Sixers had to play most of the game without their two best players as Joel Embiid left in the first quarter with a sprained shoulder. The Cavs, then the worst team in the East, led the entire way and won 108-94.
Competitiveness: The Cavs look like a much better team this year as Sexton has another year under his belt and they have Drummond underneath. There's a long way to go to challenge the Sixers, though, and they played an exhausting two-overtime trench war with the Pistons last night while Philly coasted to an easy win over the Knicks. 5/10
Importance: Definitely a litmus test game for the Cavs- can they hang with Philly and prove that they can be that dangerous team no one wants to face in the east play-in tournament? The 76ers might be looking past this game as they have a big clash with Tampa Bay coming up on Tuesday. 4/10
Style Points: This game gives us two matchups between stars. Joel Embiid has been on a mission to start this season, following up his 29/14 against Washington with a 27/10 against the Knicks. His matchup with Andre Drummond will be one to watch. At point guard, Simmons-Sexton could be an even more exciting face-off. The Cavs have played a more fun style of basketball this season, using Sexton to ignite a high pressure defense that stole a win in Detroit. That double-overtime win might prove costly tonight, though, when they run out of gas against a deeper and more talented Sixers team. Bonus points for the Cavs having that really fun color guy, I guess. 6.75/10
Overall: 5.25/10
6) Minnesota Timberwolves (2-0) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (1-1) at 10:00 pm EST
Where to watch: NBA TV
Spread: Los Angeles -11
Last Meeting: December 8th, 2019. AD dropped half a hundred and LeBron put up 32 and thirteen assists as the Lakers won a 142-125 slugfest. The Wolves hung around and trailed by only seven after three quarters before LA pulled away.
Competitiveness: The Wolves are off to a surprising 2-0 start, including an impressive win in Utah last night. Most would write this off as a scheduled loss, though, with a back-to-back against the defending champs and KAT getting dinged up at the end of the Jazz game. Still, it will be interesting to see how this new-look Wolves team trades punches with AD and Bron in the first half. 6/10
Importance: The Lakers seem to finally be settling into the new season after a disappointing showing on opening night, and will be looking for another statement win. Some Wolves fans have speculated that they will rest KAT after his injury scare tonight. I'd expect him to play, but no one in Minnesota thinks they will win this game. 3/10
Style Points: Anthony Edwards going up against two of the best in the game? DLo back in LA? Upstarts against the defending champs? Top notch storylines for this game, where the first half will be a good litmus test for Minnesota, before fatigue probably sets in for guys like Edwards and Culver and the game gets pretty ugly.
Minnesota's defense looks much improved this season, and their explosive bench can keep this game fun. And you know what you're getting with the Lakers' stars. Unfortunately the NBA TV rights to this game mean most fans will get the LA crew and miss out on the top notch Fox Sports North announcers. 8/10
Overall: 5.6/10
5) San Antonio Spurs (2-0) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (1-1) at 7:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: New Orleans -5
Last Meeting: August 9th, 2020. The Spurs and Pels faced off for a high-scoring showdown in the bubble that saw the two teams combined for 77 fourth quarter points. JJ Redick went off and hit eight threes and Zion chipped in 25, but the rest of their teammates shit the bed and the Spurs won 122-113.
Competitiveness: The Spurs are off to a fast start, most recently squeaking out an impressive win over the Raptors last night. The Pelicans have produced mixed results, but beat Tampa by a more impressive margin and have an extra day of rest. Expect a close one early, with New Orleans having a sizeable edge late. 6.5/10
Importance: Both teams figure to be in the hunt for the final playoff spots and will see each other plenty this season as they are both in the same division. I doubt the Spurs would sweat this B2B loss too much, though. 7/10
Style Points: Zion put up a highlight-worthy 32 and 14 on Christmas Day against the Heat, and the Pels look like a new team on defense, making them one of the most interesting squads to watch this year. Ingram, Redick, Hart, and Lonzo can combine for an offensive explosion at any time. The Spurs can play kind of a bland style sometimes, especially with 35 year old LaMarcus Aldridge playing on a back-to-back. Dejounte Murray, who just posted his first career triple double and looks much improved this season, will be an interesting to player to watch today. This one feels like it could be a snooze-fest or a barn-burner, with nothing in between. 6.75/10
Overall: 6.7/10
4) Boston Celtics (1-1) vs. Indiana Pacers (2-0) at 8:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Boston -2.5
Last Meeting: Tuesday March 10th, 2020. The Celtics were the last team the Pacers faced before Miss Rona stepped in and put a stop to the basketball for awhile. Marcus Smart made the go-ahead layup to rescue Boston in the final minute after they blew a 19 point lead, and they held on to win 114-111. Sabonis posted a 28-9-8 night for Indiana.
Competitiveness: The Celtics have the rest advantage, as they got the night off to lick their wounds after a Christmas Night Stomping at the hands of KD and Kyrie, while the Pacers had to take the floor last night and beat up on the Bulls. The Pacers figure to be in the middle of the playoff pack, while the Celtics would like to challenge the Bucks and Nets at the top, and this game will be a huge early measuring stick for both teams. The Pacers will have home floor, which makes this anyone's game. 8/10
Importance: It's never too early to have a big game for playoff seeding! The Celtics will be anxious to prove that their opening game win against Milwaukee was no fluke, while the Pacers need to show us that they can beat someone better than the Knicks and Bulls. 7.5/10
Style Points: This is where this game kind of falls short. Tatum, Kemba, Sabonis, Brown, and others all provide lots of star power, but aren't the big names featured elsewhere on this list, and both teams tend to play slower, more defensive-oriented basketball. The Celtics' thumping at the hands of the Nets is more of a story for Brooklyn than for Boston, and Indiana has maybe been the playoff team that jumped off the page less than anyone else so far. Add in a game that's only broadcast locally and that overlaps with every other game but two and this game takes a bump in a packed Sunday night slate.
Still, this should be a very good game between two playoff teams, and a fun one to tune in for down the stretch if the Pacers keep it close. 5.5/10
Overall: 7/10
T-2) Orlando Magic (2-0) vs. Washington Wizards (0-2) at 7:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Washington -1.5
Last Meeting: Last night! The Magic and Wizards squared off for their first of back-to-back games, which was an exciting back-and-forth contest. The Magic had the edge on the glass for much of the game, which only intensified late as they pulled away and the Wizards started pressing and taking bad shots. Beal went off for 39 points while Westbrook posted a triple-double, proving that they can in fact play together just fine.
Competitiveness: Last night's game was a see-sawing battle for most of the evening. Orlando looks like the better team and one of the more improved squads in the East, if their win against Miami is any indication. Still, beating a team on their home floor twice in a row is extraordinarily difficult, and the Wizards get to regroup and see if they can fix their rebounding woes against the same team. Expect another entertaining toss-up!9/10
Importance: Both teams are in roughly the same boat: improved squads who will likely find themselves sitting on the edge of the Eastern Conference playoff field. They won't see each other again in the first half of the season, and to pick up a quick two games on their competition would be an enormous boost for Orlando. 7.5/10
Style Points: The Wizards have been playing a fun new style with Russ and Bradley Beal sharing the load on offense, and early speculation about how the pair will get along on the court has been promising. The Magic get the job done with comparatively little star power, but Vucevic has always been one of the more underrated players in the league and deserves some recognition. Terrence Ross and Davis Bertans will be other players to keep an eye on- Ross has been extremely hot offensively in his first two games, while Bertans is a streaky shooter who can be the key to Washington winning or losing.
Perhaps the most interesting storyline, though, is the back-to-back baseball-style two game series. College leagues are trying this out across the country and we've seen in leagues like the MAAC, Mountain West, and others how hard it is for superior teams to beat the same team on consecutive nights. We've also gotten a glimpse of this in the NBA preseason. This time, the teams are very evenly matched. How will the Wizards adjust tonight? What effect will the wonky scheduling have? 8/10
Overall: 8.2/10
T-2) Dallas Mavericks (0-2) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (2-0) at 3:30 pm EST
Where to Watch: NBA TV
Spread: Los Angeles -5
Last Meeting: August 30th, 2020. The Clippers knocked the Mavs out of the first round of the playoffs, winning Game 6 after the game was moved back due to the player strike. Doncic dropped 38 and Dorian Finney-Smith chipped in 16, but only one other Dallas played cracked double digits. L.A. moved on to the next round where they cruised through the first four games against the Nuggets and...oh wait hahahahahahahahahaha.
Competitiveness: The Mavs need to get their shit together. They posted a close opening night loss against the Suns and then got their doors kicked in by the Lakers... neither of those are alarming results, but they're not the mark of a playoff team. The Clippers are angry at the way last season ended, ready to take it out on the league, and they've looked like a juggernaut with Nic Batum in their lineup, putting up convincing wins over the other top two teams in the West. Doncic can keep any game close, but he needs his teammates to carry some of the load, and the Clippers are still the clear favourites here. 6.5/10
Importance: Dallas needs to show that they can beat playoff teams, as their schedule for the next few weeks doesn't get any easier after tonight. They'll face the Heat, Rockets, Magic, Nuggets, and Pelicans. They'll have to figure out who their second and third best scoring options are in the process. Both teams will be looking for a statement win on a national stage- they're the only teams playing in the afternoon tomorrow and get a national broadcast on NBA TV. 8/10
Style Points: Kawhi... Luka... PG13.... could you really get any more star power? The Mavs looking for revenge on the team that knocked them out of the playoffs by beating them in a Sunday Showcase game (albeit on NBA TV) in their house provides a great story to go along with the stars. The Clippers have been red hot from three point range to start the season, and a Mavs defense that allowed 138 points to the Lakers will probably provide plenty of opportunities for more fireworks. If not for the potential of a lopsided final score, this would be the #1 game of the day. Tune into this instead of football on a relatively light NFL day. 10/10
Overall: 8.2/10
1) Phoenix Suns (1-1) vs. Sacramento Kings (2-0) at 9:00 pm EST
Where to Watch: League Pass
Spread: Phoenix -3.5
Last Meeting: Last night! Sacramento jumped out to a 15-2 lead, but the Suns almost immediately cut that in half, and tied the game early in the third quarter. The teams traded baskets for much of the second half, with DeAaron Fox and Buddy Hield carrying the offensive load for the Kings, who held on to win thanks to some timely offensive rebounding from Richaun Holmes.
Competitiveness: Aside from the early flurry from the Kings, these teams were as evenly matched as they come, trading punches for the entire second half. The Suns probably won't shoot 11-44 from three point range again tonight, and the Kings will probably take better care of the basketball. Regardless, we're in for a fascinating rematch of two Western Conference playoff hopefuls. 10/10
Importance: Both the Suns and the Kings are exciting young teams with opportunities to improve on last season, and both figure to end up in that 7-10 seed range in the Western Conference. These two teams won't see each other again in the first half of the season, and the Suns cannot afford to drop back-to-back contests against one of their competitors for the last couple of playoff spots. The Kings, meanwhile, were largely overlooked by fans and writers heading into the season and look poised to outperform expectations. Going 3-0 to start the season would do a lot to quiet the doubters. Regardless, this two game series will likely end up mattering down the road. 8/10
Style Points: The Suns were the talk of the NBA Bubble in August and have continued turning heads with their opening night win against the Mavs. Chris Paul's presence at point guard allows them to run a better offense than "just let Devin Booker chuck as many threes as he wants and hope Ayton rebounds enough to let us eke out a close win". They're still a fun, up-tempo team that shoots lots of threes, and finally play some good defense if that's your thing too. Sacramento announced themselves as a team not to be slept on with their opening night win against the Nuggets (thanks Will Barton), and the trend continued last night. They've attempted the fewest threes of any team through two games this year, and their game plan of Fox driving and everyone crashing the glass gives us an intriguing contrast of styles.
Like I mentioned for the Wizards game, the baseball-style series also presents us with interesting questions to answer in this game (how will the Suns adjust on the glass? can the Kings beat the same team twice in a row?), and a nerve-wracking two games between two teams who are very close in talent level and playoff hopes. Perhaps most importantly, Phoenix's broadcast is the only one on League Pass so far that has figured out their on-court audio and actually sounds normal. Keep that one in mind! 8/10
Overall: 8.7/10
I also made a Google Form where you can pick all the winners of today's games... I'll link that below. Thought it would be cool to see how Reddit does predicting the winners. I'll close the form at 3:30 when the Mavs and Clips tip off. I'll try to pare this down length-wise if and when I do this again. Thanks for reading!
Pick the winners here!

Just about all of you are weighing in on the Deshaun Watson controversy and the hiring of the new head coach. I expect Watson, or his people, to make an official trade demand soon, and we’ll see where it goes from there. They can trade him or let him sit out, if it comes to that. I hope it doesn’t get James Harden ugly.
If you’re venting and don’t ask for an answer, I’ll just run your comment.
The Watson controversy could drag on for a long time. Meanwhile, general manager Nick Caserio is getting closer to recommending a new coach to Cal McNair, who’ll sign off on it.
There’s a good chance the next head could be a coordinator in the AFC Championship Game — Buffalo defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier or Kansas City offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. I think Indianapolis defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is a strong candidate, too.
Q: Does anybody really know what’s going on with Watson? No doubt he is a tremendous talent and I have always gotten the impression a stand-up guy. All the news/ESPN hype aside why hasn’t he stated his position. What the news is reporting is second- or third-hand information. I don’t believe in Twitter, etc., to communicate in a situation like this. The owner, GM and Watson needs to sit down and talk. If there is a problem or issue, lay it out on the table. They all need to man up. If Watson doesn’t want to be a Texan after they gave him the contract and money, Watson needs to move on. McNair owns the club, you may not agree with how everything is done but he is the owneboss. I hope Watson decides he wants to be a Texan, but that is his call. If not he is a distraction and remember there is no I in team. — Bill B.
A: Sitting down and talking makes too much sense, Bill. So far, Watson hasn’t said what he wants. It’s all come from unnamed sources close to Watson.
Q: The rhetoric around Deshaun displeasure seems to be escalating. My personal opinion is that Deshaun shows a lot of audacity demanding that the owner of the company he works for must consult with him on who he hires to be his boss. Any other industry and he would be in the parking lot with a pink slip in his hand. But then I'm an old guy and not in tune with today’s youth. My question is in regard to his contract. If he stays mad and won't play and demands a trade are the Texans obligated to trade him, or can they not pay him for showing up for work and hold him accountable for the length of the contract? — Eric R.
A: Times have changed, Eric. Some agents and players in the NFL want it to be like the NBA, where the agents and players control so much, like who goes where. If Watson sits, he doesn’t get paid. If he sits out the season, he loses credit for the season and has to start over in 2022. He can do like James Harden and make it so ugly they have to trade him, but I can’t imagine Watson doing what Harden did. That’s not the Deshaun I’ve covered since the day he was drafted.
Q: Does McNair’s decision to keep Easterby send the message to Deshaun (and the others in the locker room that consider Jack toxic) that Easterby is more valuable to the Texans organization than Deshaun. Cal called the Easterby criticism “unjustified.” I get it — it’s unjustified, to Cal. But isn’t it totally justified to 85 to 90 of the locker room (if the Sports Illustrated article and interviews are accurate). — David M.
A: I don’t know what the other players think. Charles Omenihu said at a charity event this week he didn’t have a problem with Easterby. Brandin Cooks, who met Easterby at New England, has praised him, too. What McNair is saying is that nobody is going to tell him to hire or fire, like the owner of most businesses I know.
Q: I know you keep reassuring everyone Watson isn’t going anywhere, but the situation seems to be escalating. The Texans are finding more and interesting ways to keep the fans churned up. It is like a tempest in a teapot. One issue you touched on is will the Texans be able to attract the right candidate if they don’t get this Watson situation fixed. McNair seems to be willing to win the battle at the cost of the war. I am so disgusted with that organization for being so out of touch. One question about Easterby. Is it his ties to OB or is he doing things in the organization to create divisiveness? I can’t understand how somebody can be this polarizing to so many people within the organization and so popular with management. None of this makes sense! — Randy S.
A: You’re right about it not making sense, Randy. I think players and fans believe every bad decision OB made was also made by Easterby. I know many don’t like that Easterby has his fingerprints on so many parts of the organization rather than staying in his lane like he did with the Patriots. But McNair has given him that authority, and Easterby answers to only one person.
Q: I don’t really understand what Easterby did that was so offensive to Watson and Andre Johnson. It’s like the teacher going to the superintendent and telling him to fire the principal. But in this case, Easterby doesn’t directly work with Watson. You’ve been at the Chronicle a long time and are highly respected, but you don’t tell the publisher what to do or you wouldn't be there much longer. — Joe T.
A: You’ve got that right, Joe, but times are different today. Players and agents want control. The Texans negotiated a contract in good faith for $156 million, and they don’t want to trade Watson. They’ve done nothing but praise him to the high heavens. But if Watson is determined to get traded, it’s going to deteriorate. McNair apologized to Watson for the miscommunications on the Caserio hire. McNair and Caserio assured everyone they’d keep Watson updated on the coaching search. ESPN reported Sunday that Watson won’t return their calls. If that’s the case, how does he keep up with their coaching search?
Q: Why do people not like Easterby? Evidently McNair is one of the few who support him. Watson deserves to have some input. We wasted too many years with O’Brien. — Carole R.
A: I’m not exactly sure why they don’t like him, Carole, other than his close association with OB, being part of a total collapse in a disastrous season, having Watson and Andre Johnson taking public shots at him. Nobody has detailed what they don’t like.
Q: Watson's feud. Another employee that wants to be boss. And a rich one at that. Really never heard about Easterby until lately. Let's not forget that Cal McNair let O'Brien take over. O'Brien along with McNair, will never be forgiven here in Houston for giving Hopkins away. Hiring a coach means more to your readers/fans than anything a guy like Caserio could. You've been here. You know as much as anyone, maybe more. Can anyone point McNair in the right direction? Let's see. Caserio has been here a week! Please continue to keep us aware. — Lyn B.
A: Caserio has been in personnel for 19 of his 21 years in the NFL, Lyn. There was no personnel director more deserving of getting a chance to become personnel director than Caserio. It’s going to take a lot of work, starting with the new coach and his staff.
Q: Once again I enjoyed your Mailbag this week. Under one of the Chronicle pictures of Deshaun Watson in said he was unhappy with his lack of involvement in searches for GM and coach. How can he be unhappy when his paycheck hits the bank each week. Someone should remind him that he was hired to be the QB, not the GM or coach. And I do mean sit him down for a little owner-to-QB session and remind him who signs those paychecks since he wants to talk to McNair so badly. Sounds like another entitlement issue to me. Quite frankly, I think he gets too much credit and week after week he makes his share of mistakes that contribute to losses. Not sure why the masses are willing to look beyond that. How could the Texans give him any more than they have already? As far as his no-trade clause, the backup quarterback position might just show him a bit of humility or appreciation for where he is and what he has. Time for someone to put these prima donnas in their place. With a good GM and a good coach in place the Texans can do better without him as the starting QB. Let him watch a few Texan wins from the bench for awhile and let’s see how much input he thinks he should have in GM and head coach hires. — Will W.
A: Will, Watson won’t be sitting on the bench. If he’s here, he’s starting. If he’s not, he’s starting somewhere else.
Q: I am a Chronicle subscriber, have read your column for years. I read how the Texans re-did Andre's contract. Then he was an assistant (or similar) in recent years. I understand Andre taking up for Deshaun but I do not understand such sharpness being tweeted out. That seems completely unlike the Andre that the public knows. How was Andre so wronged? — Ed K.
A: He wasn’t wronged, Ed. I think when he suggested that Watson stand his ground and then ripped Easterby, he was telling us what he thinks.
Q: Watson not happy? Let's kiss his butt to make him happy. Last time I checked he was an employee, not a part owner. Many employees are not happy with certain things in their workplace, but they get over it. Show him the door. — Gene C.
Q: OK, it’s crunch time. My opinion, hiring Bieniemy or possibly Frazier is the only thing that keeps Watson. — Scott M.
A: I’m guessing it’s got to be more than that, Scott.
Q: I think I’ve finally reached my tipping point. That is saying a lot after a year like 2020. The Harden situation was surprisingly easier. I’m a die-hard Rockets and basketball fan. I’ve had season tickets or have been buying tickets since 1991. And yet when it comes to Harden, good riddance. Take it somewhere else. Watson is a whole different deal. While the old-school part of me laughs a little at the Gen Y and Gen X demands and attitudes, that train has left the station. When you give a “kid” $100-200 million it’s hard to expect the maturity or experience of someone in their more developed years. That said, how could McNair let this get so bad? Not sure what to believe in this world of blogger news, but where there is smoke, there is fire. I guess as long as Cal believes we will keep buying tickets and watching on TV then he too can do what he wants. I will say if Watson goes, I will be remorsefully selling my PSLs at first opportunity. Even if our new GM pulled of a Herschel Walker-like trade. I believe in loyalty. It’s important in life. But there is nothing Easterby can be providing that outweighs the damage that seems well documented in and out of the organization. It’s just unbelievable to me and frankly bums me out. I handled the Astros. I’m OK with the Rockets. I’ve accepted the mask. I’ve accepted the election. I just can’t get my head around the situation with Watson. — Keith C.
A: I imagine many of us feel like you do, Keith.
Q: By the way, I’m tired of the sophomoric name-calling in many of your e-mails. You should be able to make your point without stooping to name-calling, right? Thank you. — Mike A.
A: The e-mails have been better this week, Mike. Thank everyone for ditching the name-calling. I’ve deleted several e-mails because I don’t want to take the time to edit out the name-calling.
Q: Congratulations on the Cal McNair interview about Easterby. National media giving you credit for it as well. The news about McNair being so entrenched was nauseating at best but at least it provides certainty. Let's hope the players can convince Caserio to wall him off from them so he isn't a distraction. I sincerely hope fans are allowed in the stadium next year so they can provide direct feedback to McNair and his boss. I can think of no other situation in American business when a subordinate has withstood this much hostility and venom. Maybe in a cult, but not a business. How terribly unfortunate. Thanks for being the messenger. — Ray M.
A: Thanks very much, Ray.
Q: I read your articles and watch your videos. Cal McNair apologized for his actions or communications that created mistrust. Few hours after that Deshaun Watson puts another cryptic tweet about 2 and 10. Why does such a smart player and good person put out such tweets that hurt the reputation of the team and ownership? Is he misguided? Wish tweets could be used to spread positivity, awareness on social issues instead of riling public opinion against team ownership. Why is it hard for players to sort out differences directly as grown-up adults instead of washing dirty linen in public? I want Deshaun to stay in Houston but these cryptic tweets and media leaks (anonymous sources) are beginning to damage his reputation as well. — Jeevan R.
A: It’s a new era, Jeevan. That’s just the way a lot of people operate today. One-on-one communication seems to be a thing of the past.
Q: If Easterby was such a help to the organization here are some suggested comments McNair might have made:

1. You know we could not have pulled off the trading of Hopkins without his help, this was a really successful moment for our franchise, he advised O'Brian perfectly on this trade.
   
2. Why would people question the decision to keep Easterby, after all who would listen to Andre or Watson, they were just players and you can never get enough advice for someone who has been in New England
   
3. Our new GM needed to have friends around to support his decision making and Easterby is that guy
   
4. Why should I listen to a quarterback or a retired wideout when choosing a GM, after all I have Easterly to advise me, let Watson vacation in Cabo
   
5. Andre simply has not gotten to know "Jackie" like I have.
   
6. You will see when our team advised by my close buddy Jack Easterby chooses our head coach. No I do not think a quarterback of a losing team should have any say, why would I think of that? After all he is not Elway or Manning or even Blanda. You will see Easterby's worth when we choose the new coach.
   

Sorry David Barron is retiring, you now have to be the old wise owl. — Don H.
A: We’re all sorry Barron is retiring, Don. He leaves a huge hole in our sports coverage and will be missed by so many of us.
Q: On the coaching search by Texans, this year it seems the new slogan for teams looking for the HC is a leader of men. In a football world of Alphas, not all coaches and players are Alphas. Bill O'Brien wasn't necessarily an Alpha. Mike Vrabel was an Alpha, as evidenced by the many complimentary comments from Texan players during Vrabel's time here. It's been no surprise to me that the Titans have excelled under Vrabel's stewardship. He's supported by a good GM who has had some recently productive drafts. I won't be surprised when the Titans go Super Bowling. How does an NFL owner or GM identify that Alpha quality in a HC candidate? — Roy S.
A: It’s pretty easy to identify, Roy, if you know what you're doing, have a lot of experience in the NFL and have a lot of contacts to investigate candidates’ strengths and weaknesses.
Q: It seems like almost everybody has agreed that Watson will be traded. I don’t think Caserio will do that, but what do you think it takes for Watson and the Texans to get their relationship back on track? And do you think this has hurt the search for a new HC? Med venlig hilsen. — Kristian S.
A: I don’t think it’s hurt the search, Kristian. There are only 32 of these jobs in the world, and they’re coveted by so many. Not to mention the new coach will probably get about $5 mil a year — lots more than an assistant coach. Med venlig hilsen to you, too.
Q: If Watson does not trust Easterby, and Caserio has said that they have a long-term relationship, don't you think it's just better for them to part ways? Get someone who wants to be here and can buy in to what Caserio is building, otherwise there will always be some kind of drama. Watson seems to be a great guy, but he wants to be at a place where he feels like he's respected, clearly he feels that he has not been, right or wrong! I don't care how much money you make, nobody wants to go to work looking over their shoulder every day. Sounds like a clean break is needed. I'd hate to see him go, but hey they traded Olajuwon! — Robert T.
A: Why would Watson have to look over his shoulder every day, Robert? Perhaps they will make a clean break. Perhaps it’ll get real ugly like Harden. Or maybe they can work it out if Watson wants to work it out.
Q: With Cal "running” things, Texans deserve what they get. But the fans don’t deserve this crap. Jack Easterby is now a known problem — nationwide — but Cal can’t see it. Respected SI writers go on for pages about his crap. Cal: unjustified and we own it in the building. It's beyond reproach that the building is an abject disaster. Did Cal say why he is retaining JE? Did he say why, when it's jeopardizing the team, Deshaun, the fans, etc; was he asked to address and respond to the litany of the events outlined in the SI article? Was he asked if 20 percent of that is true, all is probably true, Why is JE being retained? Did he answer why he is being retained when, according to O’Brien, he was intimately involved in all the horrendous decisions since he arrived? If he wasn’t asked these things, then why not?? These are the questions that 90 plus percent of Texans fans deserve answers to. And last, was he asked why, in view of all of the press and backlash, locally and nationwide, he hasn’t had a press conference so that he can field questions from a variety, not just insiders? Cal is damn lucky he’s here in Houston, and not another city where the media and fans demand performance and are exacting in their review. See Philly! Firing a pretty damn good coach who Texans ought to consider, but JE won’t approve, so no chance. Not to mention not even interviewing Saleh and asking for Bieniemy 2 weeks late. The ticket holders should boycott! Once Cal’s cash train comes to a grinding halt, maybe things will change. — Steve C.
A: Steve, I guess you missed McNair answering every question the media had about Easterby on the Zoom call with the media. I guess you missed what’s been reported over and over: It’s Caserio’s search and hire. As soon as he got here for his first day on the job, he notified the league he wanted to interview five coaches, including Bieniemy. And I guess you’ve missed all those times it’s been written, broadcast and tweeted: McNair says Easterby is here because the owner thinks he does a good job. No other explanation is necessary.
Q: Shades of the Houston Oilers. Reminds me of the yesterdays when Bud Adams didn't know what he was doing. McNair standing up for a man that was totally bamboozled and steamrolled by Bill O'Brien is a joke. It just tells me that the owner doesn't have a clue about football management. Mr. McNair seems to be a good man, and a man that knows how to make money. But his personnel skills are lacking. By standing up for Easterby, he has endorsed the failures of the past 5 years under O'Brien. The man that dismantled the Texans and left them non-competitive. But Deshaun knows Easterby is zero help. Why didn't Deshaun say something before or after he signed his huge contract? Why did J.J. Watt wait so long to speak out? Easterby was there to listen to them. I predict the Texans will continue to lose for the next 5 years. New coach? Who wants this job? Texans will have to beg to get a coach. Interviews mostly with retreads Jim Caldwell, Marvin Lewis? Are you kidding me? Losers. Watt will be gone to a potential championship team like Green Bay. The Texans will not beat the Jaguars again. You will see what real coaching does. Watson will remain unhappy and frustrated fans will still buy tickets, based on a sales pitch. Easterby will get it done. Seen it all before. Thank God I don't have season tickets with a seat license. — Kelley J.
A: I disagree about failure for the last five years with OB. Winning four division titles in five years and two playoff games isn’t failure. Let’s be fair. The Texans have interviewed eight candidates, including five who’ve never been a head coach. By the way, some other retreads who’d been fired: Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, Tony Dungy, Marty Schottenheimer, Dan Reeves, Andy Reid, Jon Gruden and Gary Kubiak, just to name a few.
Q: I'm from Boston and subscribe to Texas Sports Nation to read your stuff. We had a sportscaster named Bob Lobel who would show highlights of former players and say, "why can't we get guys like that." I hope Nick and Easterby (who reminds me of Rasputin and I'm glad he's Houston's problem) ship him (Watson) to New England. Stranger things have happened. More likely the Jets for Darnold and great picks. — Vic L.
A: Vic, what do you have to offer for Watson to go to the Patriots to work with Belichick and Josh McDaniels.
Q: I’m sure I’m not telling you anything you don’t know, but in my view, regardless of how his role evolved, a critical part of Easterby’s position was to maintain a good relationship with players. Most of all, the team leaders such as Deshaun Watson. If he has not done this, he has failed at a significant part of his job. Just like with any other job, I don’t really think it matters what the reasons are. He has obviously failed at it. Personally I try to form my opinions from the information I have available to me. There is a lot of information out there regarding Deshaun Watson, from his childhood, to college, to NFL. He does not appear to be someone to me that is unreasonable or difficult to deal with. If he was, then maybe this breakdown with Easterby would be excusable. I think where there is smoke, there is fire. And there is just too much smoke around players having problems with Easterby. So, in my opinion, McNair keeping him around may not be the easy way out, but it also may not be the right decision. I just don’t think it should have been that hard for Easterby to maintain those relationships. Sometimes in life if situations degrade then it just needs to be changed, regardless of the perspectives of those involved. — David G.
A: David, Easterby’s job has nothing to do with his relationship with players. That was at New England. He’s the executive vice president of football operations who works closely with the GM who has final say on all football decisions.
Q: McNair’s every word, action and decision show he is simply not intelligent enough to be an NFL owner. The smartest thing Cal McNair could do is find someone smart enough to operate the Texans football franchise and step out of the way. Maybe that person is Nick Caserio? Maybe that is the new real question? — Deanne N.
A: The idea, Deanne, is for Caserio to hire the coach to be the face of the franchise, and McNair and Easterby slip into the background.
Q: Texans fans badly need to understand the what and why the Texans have completely fallen apart since the playoff game last year against Kansas City. While Bill O’Brien had not won a Super Bowl, he had considerable success and seemed on the brink of winning the big one. The crazy trades, the demise of any defense, all this attention of Jack Easterby, etc. What does he do that is good or bad? It appears that with the passing of Bob McNair, things have deteriorated greatly. The Chronicle needs some in-depth reporting on the matter to the benefit of those paying the tab. No diatribe from the two columnists, please. — Charles M.
A: Charles, if I had a dollar for every time I’ve written about the demise of the Texans dating back to the second quarter of the Kansas City playoff game I could buy out Cal McNair.
Q: I take it you watched the Bills vs Baltimore playoff game. The Bills beat Lamar Jackson badly. That drops the stock of Balt's OC. They couldn't do that against Watson. That game only made Watson more priceless. There's not another QB in the NFL capable of the DW4 heroic plays. But what does Houston gain by declaring him untradeable? If the D can't improve substantially during his contract, he's going to leave Houston when it expires. Doesn't it make more sense to ask for a king’s ransom now? Hypothetically speaking, if Houston were to trade him, where does Chicago rank as a trade partner? All things considered, can Houston rebound defensively and compete for the AFC crown next year? — Juan B.
A: Watson has a no-trade clause. I doubt seriously he’d agree to be traded to the Bears. I don’t think the Texans can compete for the AFC crown next season, Juan. If they trade Watson, they’ll compete for the first pick in the draft.
Q: What would happen if J.J. Watt and Deshaun Watson both say they don’t want to play for the Texans as long as Easterby is in the building? What would happen if the Texans hire a coach that Deshaun Watson isn’t happy with? Easterby knows that he is toxic amongst the best players on the team and Cal knows that. What if Watson says I’m not coming unless Easterby is gone or if J.J. Watt says I’m not coming back to camp unless Easterby is gone? I feel bad for Caserio. — Glen K.
A: I feel bad for Caserio, too, Glen. He’s waited 20 years for a chance to become a GM and he starts with this mess.
Q: Hard to imagine the hold Easterby has on McNair. His background purportedly was as a character coach when he was brought in. Instead he has apparently done only one thing right — ingratiating himself with McNair and Caserio. It’s hard to imagine we may lose an unbelievable talent like Watson because of a character like Easterby. His skill set was supposed to be building team chemistry. He has done a tremendous job of doing the exact opposite. It sounds like players see him for what he is, a poser. Amazing! Casserio could salvage everything by calling Bieniemy and offering him the job immediately. Watching KC’s offense and the higher level creativity is just too good to pass on. Or we can take the safe route, dawdle and get stuck with whomever is left and have that as an excuse. Fortunately, it will probably be a defensive coach and we will need a great D without Deshaun here. — Mike D.
Q: I am a daily reader. I just got through reading the Sports Illustrated article online about Easterby. I'm trying to figure out other than the fact that he prays, what is the specific issue. Maybe everybody's avoiding coming right out and saying it due to a legal liability, but I have been unable to find anything other than vague references to the fact that Easterby's being here has somehow caused the Texans to play terribly. I also have not seen anything in the media that says a billionaire has to run his business according to public opinion which may not even represent the majority. I'm not a defender of either person, it just seems that there's a lot of smoke and not the whole lot of specific fire. No one wants to lose so maybe that's the biggest thing. Why Deshaun Watson at 25 thinks he should be able to dictate to the people who pay him a hundred and fifty million dollars is still a puzzle to me. According to SI online when asked why Caserio wasn't on their list, Korn Ferry said they knew that he was already on the Texans list so they did not add his name. I have not seen this detail in any local media, which seems to make the issue of Caserio not being on Korn Ferry list something that we should think about. — Charles W.
A: Charles, I don’t give a damn about Korn Ferry. Jed Hughes recommended they hire Brian Schottenheimer as their head coach, and he was fired by Seattle. A search firm is paid to compile information and make recommendations. This was the third time the Texans tried to interview Caserio dating back to 2017 when they had to replace Rick Smith. Caserio is one of the most respected personnel men in the NFL. That’s not debatable. Who gives a hoot if he was on the Korn Ferry list?
Q: I have no insight into the operation of a football organization. My Ph.D. is in management and have a very good understanding of organizations outside of football. I don't understand the upset QB and I am guessing many of his supporters. Let me frame my question. The CEO runs the company. His/her direct reports are probably VP's, then there are managers and report to them are various staff. I was once a college president. If a hot shot staff member had demanded that he/she be part of the selection of a VP or their direct boss I would tell them they have no business selecting senior members of my staff and I would guess that other CEO's would tell the staff member the same thing or would no longer have a job. Here is my question. Why does Watson think he should be in or hiring Caserio or the next head coach? — Rudy S.
A: That’s the way it is in just about every business, Rudy, but not the business of sports.
Q: I have not written to a newspaper writer in my 71 years on this earth, but I am highly disappointed in what is going on with the Texans. I have been a season ticket holder since 2003 and have stood by the team each year be it good or bad. Deshaun Watson has lost my respect as a player and a person. He has lowered himself to acting like a spoiled NBA player. He is paid to play football not manage the team. People are down on Jack Easterby but no reasons have been put forth for their dissatisfaction. So what is the story? The McNair family owns the franchise and funds it so that makes them the boss. I would like to see Deshaun play for the Texans but what he is doing right now is destructive and stirring up trouble for the team, fans and ticket holders. This kind of behavior is going to drive away ticket holders. A sad season ticket holder. — Jo Ann C.
A: Many feel as you do, Jo Ann. Unfortunately, times are different. Agents and players have a lot more power than they used to.
Q: It’s sad that a premier QB is now executive management. He should do his job and improve like not throw 1 interception ever again. So now we’ve established no one’s perfect, lets address coaching. Texans hired great GM, let him do his job. — Stephen G.
A: I agree, Stephen, to let Caserio do what he was hired to do.
Q: I'm heartened by last week's Mailbag participants whose concerns I shared about religion and hiring within the Texans organization. And thank you for your enlightening information in that regard. Should Deshaun Watson (or anyone) have been angered that Bieniemy wasn't interviewed before Caserio was hired to search for a coach? That confusion seems like an easy thing to smooth over. If not and Watson leaves, the organization would no longer be qualified to represent the great city of Houston. Especially after the excellent season Watson had. I'm not sure which he needed less, the support of a running game or Bill O'Brien calling plays. Am I wrong in thinking if Jamey Rootes resigns, as he was rumored to want to after all the reported GM hiring chaos, it means all that reported chaos is true? In which case, aside from Watson leaving, Rootes departing would also be a strong indictment of Cal McNair's management. If the Texans hire a defensive coordinator as head coach, does that mean Tim Kelly has a chance to stay on? — Tim K.
A: I should point out, Tim, that you’re not the Tim Kelly. I’ve said all along I thought it was a waste of time to interview a candidate before the GM was hired. Caserio is running the search, and McNair will sign off on his recommendation. I think Kelly has a chance to stay no matter who they hire. Watson wants him, and he helped Watson have his best season.
Q: What value does Jack Easterby bring to the Texans organization? How much value does this man hold if keeping him around could cost the team the one thing an NFL team needs to succeed - a transcendent quarterback. With the SI articles, it's clear there's something rotten in NRG. You keep saying Watson won't be traded, but every day that goes by is a day that the possibility increases. Firing Easterby would be the beginning of mending fences. I don't think McNair and Caserio are willing to do it. Houston seems to have got lucky to be able to interview Eric Bieniemy due to the bad press about the lack of Black coaches being hired this offseason. Although there's a limited number of these jobs, it seems to be less desirable with Easterby in the building. Can you just explain, what does that man do? If it's to provide comfort, it ain't working. It would be better the Texans bring in rescue puppies and kittens in to pet once a week. — Louis E.
A: His job isn’t to provide comfort, Louis. He’s the executive vice president of football operations. He does things on the football side to help the GM, who has final say. Easterby’s involved in everything on the football side and some things on the business side.
Q: Instead of being a reporter, how about being the GM of the Texans for a day. Granted you aren’t able to interview the coaching prospects or D4, but if you had the chance to pull the strings what would you do for coach, QB and other positions you feel need to be addressed. — Mike P.
A: I’d bring in the two or three finalists for in-person interviews. Then, I’d make my recommendation to McNair. After he signs off on it, the coach would be hired. The coach and I would sit down and figure out a way to get Watson to communicate with us. We’d offer to fly to where he is for some one-on-one communication. I might even bring my OC, Tim Kelly, along since Watson was adamant he wanted to keep Kelly as the play-caller.
Q: You have certainly added logs on them. Marketing fire to help Caserio maintain the less than stellar historical glow of the burdened mid market Texans! Honestly, in my 35 years living my life in Texas, which I continue to celebrate; for the life of my I still wonder how we get mid market and Houston disproved as in the same sentence! Stay strong John! — Bob B.
Q: The history of the Texans success is directly related to their players injuries each season. Recognition of this should be the team’s primary goal for its future. Miami coach Don Shula installed a program to prevent player injuries, and that likely played significantly in their success. If ever a team needed such a program, it's the Houston Texans. — Don S.

The insanity that is "Super Bowl Rings". A lot of people like to toss this around first, just like with Joe Montana and Eli Manning, and whomever, because it apparently 'makes you a better quarterback'. It doesn't. Before the era of QB driven league (which I think began in 2007, right after Chicago's loss to Indy in the Super Bowl), there was a clear balance of teams that were both good at scoring points and preventing points winning the Super Bowl, the Patriots were chief among those, with their wins in 2001, 2003, and 2004 being highlighted by excellent point defenses (fewest points scored) and a superb bend-but-don't-break philosophy, and it wasn't really until 2004 that Brady was the reason why the Patriots have done so well. Their defenses in 01-04 were in the top quarter of all defenses, and especially in 2003, was the predominant reason for their success that year. Think: Ben Roethlisberger's early career. From then on, especially post-QB driven leagues, what have the Patriots done? Broke a couple of offensive records.
I mean, I do think Tom Brady is a great quarterback, but much of that I think also has to do with his development and Belichick's ability to gameplan the system to weaknesses of the opponents incredibly well. The Patriots were ahead of the curve in 2007 with their offense, by at least 2 years, but you saw by 2009, the league caught up, and the Patriots, and Tom Brady were no longer lone leaders to offense. I can't help but believe, part of it was schematic, much in the same way that New Orleans got Brees schematically attached, and allowed him to be as consistent as he is. And that's the thing. I don't think Brees' offenses (outside of 2013), have been that much better than Brady's. They have different running games and intents, but talent wise? I think they've been pretty similar in rarely having a first tier WR, but outstanding TE play, just look at 2012, where the Patriots offense was revamped again to personnel, and Brady, and this is what I think one of his best assets is, basically changes his system and offensive intents every other year or so, as Patriots offensive coordinators have been hot commodities since 2007 as head coaches. They all fit with that certain scheme and terminology, but with Belichick, they do different things, and attack differently. They're constantly ahead of the curve.
I don't like to compare based a lot around strengths, especially with arm strength and mobility, because there's molds of quarterbacks that just don't fit, but still are extremely good. Where I want to compare is his accuracy, which I think is overrated. He's a career 63% completion rate passer, whereas Brees and Manning are both over 65%. Brady's first 5 years? 61.9. And neither Brees nor Manning had accuracy that low. When New England's scheme changed in 2006-2007, you saw Brady's accuracy jump up, tremendously. How many schemes has Brees played in? 2. In 2003-2004, Brees started adjusting and performing better in Martyball, and under Sean Payton, continued his trajectory that was apparent. Manning played under Tom Moore for most of his tenure, and schematically the Colts didn't change dramatically at any point and time. It took a dramatic schematic change though for Brady to reach his passing potential. And that's how we look at it. Watch the 2006 Patriots vs the 2007. There's such a huge difference in the way they executed the offense, and that allowed Brady's natural strengths to come out a little better. Which are his ability to build rapport with receivers and throw consistent balls to his receivers, and as importantly, know what he cannot do.
You rarely see Brady try to do more than he's physically able, in ways that you see Manning and Brees more often forcing their play sometimes. Manning and Brees I think are generally better at identifying all targets quickly and spreads the ball around effectively. He doesn't possess any truly best-in-class categories, but is very good at a lot of traits necessary to be extremely successful as a quarterback. His mechanics are so solid, so fluid, that it negates his lack of arm strength in being able to deliver quality balls. He doesn't have the strength of Brees nor his ability to do touch passes as effectively, and his decision making and speed of progressions doesn't match Manning in finding the absolute best receiver open. Both Brady and Manning are not even remotely close to mobile QB's. But, 5% of Brady's dropbacks result in sacks vs 3% of Mannings, while Brady is consistently one of the least blitzed QB's in the league, and Manning performs better against the blitz than Brady does (and Rodgers generally has both of them beat) over the past 7 years. Brady takes more coverage sacks than Brees and Manning, and part of that you can attribute to... his ability to read progression and receiver matchups at the speed that Manning and Brees does.
When you take out the Super Bowl Victories argument, which I think even unfairly weights Montana and Brady above a lot of other better quarterbacks, I don't even think he's the greatest QB of the past decade. Doesn't mean he's not a HoF QB, he's just not the best of the league since he's been playing.
One last point, that says basically, everything that I've said, only with a lot more graphs.
http://captaincomeback.wordpress.com/2014/01/19/nfl-conference-championship-predictions-manning-is-better-than-brady-but-so-what-edition/
That's basically the masterpost of every other reason possible why Manning is better than Brady.

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We have made it! All 256 regular season and – since this year – twelve playoff games are in the books and there is just one matchup left to decide who will be crowned NFL champions. There are so many storylines leading up to the big game – the GOAT Tom Brady versus the kid Patrick Mahomes, two of the all-time great tight-ends on either side of the ball wearing number 87, the Buccaneers becoming the first ever team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, Andy Reid after all this time of coming up short, potentially winning back-to-back titles, while Bruce Arians is looking to finally get his first ring as a head coach and potentially becoming the oldest one to earn one in history, and many others.
As I do every year, I wanted to give a detailed look ahead to the big game, where I break down who these teams are, kind of how they got here and how they match up against each other. To do so I put together analysis of each offense and defense, plus where each could have the advantage, then I take a look back at when these two teams first met back in week 12, explain what they have and/or should have learned from it, give you an X-factor on either side of the ball for both and finally hand out my score prediction, while explaining what I believe will happen.
Let’s dive into it!
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Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense:

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The Tampa Bay offense has been transitioning throughout the season. Early on it was Bruce Arians’ system with a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel, trying to establish a gap-scheme power run game and taking play-action shots off it from under center. And then a second offense was kind of implemented, which was more suited to what Tom Brady was used to in New England, where they spread the field and attack defenses with the quick game. However, it really was two separate playbooks almost, that they worked in. I think we have seen a little more of a symbiotic relationship, which I believe Byron Leftwich has had a big role in putting together. They motion their backs in and out or use their receivers as pre-snap coverage indicators at a much higher rate, letting Brady be surgical in the quick passing game, but still attacking vertically and using Gronk and the tight-ends as that extra in-line blocker to get enough time, because Brady still more than enough juice in his arm to push the ball down the field. Since week ten, Cameron Brate has also played about 41 percent of the snaps and I believe he gives them more versatility in what they can be from two tight-end personnel, since he can basically be a big slot for them. Their receiving corp as a whole offers a lot of versatility, whether it’s Mike Evans moving more into the slot this season, Antonio Brown being able to line up at any of the receiver spots or specialists like Scotty Miller to attack down the field.
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It’s a well-established narrative that if you can get to Tom Brady early, he becomes a much less effective passer and if you look at the five games, that they have come up short in 2020 (Saints twice, Bears, Rams and Chiefs), they have lost the battle up front offensively. Since their week 13 bye, following their last loss to Kansas City (including the playoffs), they have gone undefeated whilst averaging 34.3 points per game, with at least 30 in all three postseason battles. Looking at those games in particular, the defense was dominant at New Orleans and set up scoring opportunities directly, but against Washington and Green Bay, they completed a combined 11 passes of 20+ yards. So it is still very much about the big plays through the air (finished top three in 20+ and 40+ yard passes), but the efficiency of this offense has really gone up to a different level. At Detroit they were so dominant that Brady sat out the entire second half, then they scored on all but one of their possessions against Atlanta and now over this three-game road playoff run, they have had only three combined three-and-outs and turnovers in each of them. A big key to that has been the Bucs offensive line keeping Brady clean, as he has gotten sacked only 11 times over their active seven-game win streak and just once in all but two of those contests. To go with having better solutions to beat the blitz in their system.
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https://reddit.com/link/lddhwe/video/4vcb8675apf61/player
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Unlike a lot of modern NFL offenses, that have incorporated more RPO elements and try to create numbers advantages in the run game with spread sets, Bruce Arians still brings that old-school flair with multiple tight-end sets and the power run game. There’s not a lot of wide zone blocking, but rather they create vertical movement at the point of attack with a heavy dose of duo, get those big offensive linemen on the move on toss plays and then I love watching those receivers get involved as blockers in the box – especially Chris Godwin, who they seriously have leading up in the hole or trapping three-techniques. When they run play-action off those looks, they use a lot of seven- and eight-man protections and try to hit defenses over the top, whether it’s deep crossers and posts or straight go routes down the sideline. As much success as they have with that recipe, when you look at the analytics, their tendency to run the ball on early downs shows there’s plenty of improvement in terms of efficiency, which is something I want to see them do in this game, to not get behind the chains and allow the Chiefs defense to be as creative on third down. When they go into shotgun and spread the field more, they look for ways to attack the middle of the field with their inside receivers primarily and when they see one-on-one on the outside with Mike Evans or Antonio Brown, they will take their shots. Double-moves are a large ingredient to what they do, especially out-and-up routes.
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For the Chiefs defense, they looked like they had carried over that momentum from last year’s Super Bowl run into 2020, not giving up more than 20 points in any of their first four games. In week five, the Raiders out of nowhere exploded for 40 points and handed them their only loss outside of week 17, when they rested several starters, before having three more great showings at Buffalo, Denver and then hosting the Jets. But since then, they have allowed at least 24 points in six of their final eight games. Part of that negative turnaround was the injuries they have had in the secondary and the lack of takeaways (one per game). The biggest piece however has been their inability to keep teams out of the end-zone when they got close. Looking at the whole regular season, no other team has allowed their opponents to create a higher rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (74.1%). That’s why so many of their games stayed close deep into the fourth quarter, which I’ll get to more in a little bit. When you look into play-calling, you can see that they played a lot more zone-coverage and rushed only four or five, because they simply didn’t have the guys their could trust to cover in man. Outside of one game, where they felt like they had a great feel for the opposing route-patterns, which I’ll get to soon.
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https://reddit.com/link/lddhwe/video/k57xtmk6apf61/player
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Yet, once again, that unit has stepped up in the postseason and the two things that stand out to me are defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant game-planning and their ability to stop one-dimensional offenses. When I look at what they did against the Browns, if you take away one 23-yard burst from Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s elite running back duo was held to 78 yards on 18 carries, as Spagnuolo gave their opponents a lot of looks that they didn’t want to run into and then had a safety drop out of the box late. Then in the AFC title game, to take away Buffalo’s dynamic passing offense (which ranked top three in all major categories), they played a lot of cover-two and two-man, where their DBs pressed the hell out of the Bills receivers and then they played a lot of different versions of those two-high shells, like invert cover-two or bringing Tyrann Mathieu down as the MIKE in Tampa-two basically, which forced Josh Allen to hold onto the ball. What I can promise you is that they aren’t afraid of bringing heavy pressure and then having their coverage defenders well-schooled in the concepts they should focus on taking away primarily while the Honeybadger is often allowed to move pretty freely as the robber. Frank Clark hasn’t quite lived up to his contract, but he has had big moments in the playoffs these last two years, Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive interior D-linemen in the game, who they can move all over the line, and they have several big bodies they can rotate through to stay fresh and eat double-teams.
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Chiefs offense vs. Bucs defense:

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As much as we all love the Kansas City offense and we see them as this unit that blows us away with flashy play-designs and throws over the top, they have really been alternating their approach over the course of the season as well. When you go all the way back to their season-opener against the Texans, you see that they used more of a West Coast and RPO-oriented attack to punish a defense that played a lot of soft zones and invited them to throw the ball short. However, two weeks later at Baltimore, they were destroying the Ravens’ single-high safety and man-coverage principles by letting their speedy receivers streak down the field and call double-moves at 15+ yards of depth. Then three weeks after that, when they found themselves in a rainy setting at Buffalo against a soft interior run defense, they pounded the ball 46 times for almost 250 yards on the ground. So they have shown the ability to adapt to their opponents. However, with several injuries on the offensive line – most notably a turnstile at left guard and those two tackles, which will now both be out for the Super Bowl – and opposing defenses taking the approach of using a lot more split-safety looks and trying to take away the big play, they have turned back into being more methodical in their plan and putting together long drives. In the AFC Championship game in particular, with Patrick Mahomes coming off a turf toe injury, their gameplan and drive charts look almost like what they used to with Alex Smith, in terms of the West Coast designs and those glance or slant routes on the backside of RPO concepts.
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When you look at this KC offense, they have had large stretches of getting static in games and as great as they are at moving the ball between the 20s, they are only 14th league-wide in red-zone touchdown percentage (61%). Some people may not realize this, but since their week eight blowout win over the Jets, they had not won a game by more than six points until the AFC title game. That is due to a combination of tendency to start slow, their poor red-zone efficiency and the inability to run the ball consistently with all the movement they have had on the O-line, having rushed for 135+ yards just three times all season. With that being said, Darrell Williams has been a big factor as a power runner these playoff and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be back to full health. In addition to that, they find other ways to put the ball in the hands of their skill-players quickly, using the speed of their receiving crew on bubbles and speed sweeps, to go along with well-designed longer-developing screens, such as the double swing-fake and then middle screen to Travis Kelce. They also use their star tight-end quite a bit on those power shovels in short-yardage situations and I believe their most effective run play is the speed option, because of the way Mahomes can manipulate that end-man at the line.
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https://reddit.com/link/lddhwe/video/u5tfemudapf61/player
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While I have seen them run anything from 23 personnel to going empty with Kelce detached from the line (so basically a five-wide situation), there are a few things the Chiefs love to run. Their go-to formation is a three-by-one set with Kelce as the single receiver, mostly flexed out wide, but also in-line. In 2019 they ran three verticals from that trips side and then had Kelce on a shallow crosser over and over again. This year they still run it quite a bit, but they let the tight-end run more corner or curl routes, to allow inside receivers from the other side attack the middle of the field and isolate their backs against the linebackers, in addition to running power that way. And then they motion someone like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman across, which for the most part gets opposing defense to move into two-high coverages and play off. So if KC runs either one up the seams, there’s usually a ton of space underneath. The two things that take this offense to the next level however, are trick plays and off-script production. What makes Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy great is not only their ability to exploit defensive schemes, but they are so creative and don’t shy away from throwing reverse passes, underhand shovels to their fullback or digging up tape from the 1948 Rose Bowl. And then there’s all the thing Mahomes can do off script. That guy is so slippery to extend plays while continuing to look downfield and his pass-catchers are so adept at adjusting on the fly and finding the open areas, especially that sixth sense-like connection he has with Kelce.
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I have been higher on the Bucs defense for pretty much the entire year, which was really up and down for them as a unit. They have had moments of dominance, like keeping three straight opponents to under 50 rushing yards each or holding Green Bay’s number-one ranked offense to just 10 points in their regular season meeting, but they also gave up a combined 72 points in their first two meetings with the Saints and got lit up for over 450 yards through the air when hosting these same Chiefs back in week 12 (I’ll analyze that matchup in detail in our next segment). During this playoff run however, they have really stepped up in big moments to get them to this point. Whether it’s forcing four turnovers at New Orleans or sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and making a historically great red-zone offense settle for a couple of chip-shot field goals at Green Bay. When you look at their duo of edge rushers, Shaq Barrett is tied for the lead-league in QB hurries (24) and only three players in the NFL (all DBs) have forced more turnovers than Jason Pierre-Paul (six). Then they have the most dynamic linebacker tandem in all of football, which are heavily involved in their pressure packages and make it nearly impossible to get outside the tackle box in the run game, and now with Vita Vea back in the lineup, they have a wall on the inside that nobody can run on consistently. That’s how they finished the regular season as the clear number one run defense in the league. The secondary has been the problem child at times, especially when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has put them in pure man-coverage, but by moving their safeties around more to bracket and help in certain areas of the field, they have really improved in that department.
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Bowles is an aggressive play-caller by nature and they have created a lot of problems for opposing offenses by bringing one more than you can block (blitzed on 39% of plays). It has bitten them in their behind at times as well, but from what I have seen on tape, they have been more strategic in how they use it. Especially on third downs, I love how they have used their safeties as moving pieces, having them key on certain areas of the field or defending the sticks. In the NFC Championship game for example, one of the biggest plays of the afternoon was that Aaron Jones fumble at the start of the second half, when the Packers thought they had defeated the man-coverage with a shallow crosser to Jones whilst picking the underneath coverage, but Jordan Whitehead raced up from the other side of the field and jarred the ball loose just as the RB tried to turn upfield and convert on third down. That willingness to drive on routes is also apparent when they run quarters coverage and you see Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. break on the ball, looking to take somebody’s head off, while they are also heavily involved in their blitz packages. That combined with those guys coming off the edges, Ndamokung as a bully on the inside and a pretty unknown contributor in William Gholston has them ranking in the top five in sacks, pressure percentage, turnovers and tackles for loss.
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Examining the first matchup:

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Like I already mentioned, these two teams met back in week 12. The Chiefs jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first quarter, with Tyreek Hill racking up over 200 receiving yards over those 15 minutes already and the Bucs offense having just one combined first down over the first four possessions. Kansas City was in the red-zone once more mid-way through the second quarter, but a Shaquille Barrett strip-sack gave Brady & company the ball with some life and they were able to go on the board. That really got things to click and they fought their way back to being down only three, despite a couple of interceptions for Tampa Bay’s QB killing drives, because after scoring a touchdown on their initial try for the Chiefs, the Bucs defense really stepped up and held their opponents scoreless the rest of the way. However, Mahomes and Hill were able to run down the final four minutes and close the game, not giving Brady’s troops another chance, as they were coming off consecutive TD drives at the end, to secure a 27-24 victory.
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While the Chiefs certainly took their foot off the gas pedal and tried to run the ball more, which KC outside of what Mahomes did, rushed for only 59 yards on 16 carries, I really thought this was a breaking point for Tampa Bay as a team. The offense started finding a groove and the only two drives that didn’t result in points from that final first half possession on, ended in picks. The defense on the other hand adjusted what they were doing in coverage and held that explosive KC attack to just ten points through the final three quarters. So while I think the result may be a little deceiving and the Chiefs could have easily won by double-digits, I look back at this as more of a launching pad for a team that has been the best in the NFC from that point on and now represents that conference in the big game, with a chance to learn from their early mistakes. Here are a few things that really stood out to me when they first met:
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When you look back at the ridiculous first quarter Tyreek Hill had at Tampa Bay, what really stands out is how much he was left one-on-one in coverage, often times with Carlton Davis, who has had a good season in general, but is a bigger corner who ran in the low 4.5s at the combine – no way can he keep up consistently against the fastest man in football. Davis did follow Tyreek for the most part, in particular when he was the single receiver or the #3 in that trips set with Travis Kelce soloed up on the opposite side. And the Chiefs did a great job of creating those one-on-ones with motions, where they moved Kelce in line or forced Davis to trail Hill, when he came across the formation from that trips alignment. Tyreek’s two long touchdown came on a subtle double-move after they motioned Kelce in and then on a streak across the field as the #3 from trips. That opened up the middle of the field later on for Kelce on hook and dig routes. Something else Kansas City did in the first half particularly was using more 12 and even 13 personnel than I had seen from them all season long. They still couldn’t run the ball a lick out of those sets, but they were effective in the passing game when used, especially chipping both those guys off the edges for Tampa, with one of the TEs and the running back.
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https://reddit.com/link/lddhwe/video/q2213kwlapf61/player
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Tampa Bay called a lot of passing concepts with five-man protections early versus Kansas City bringing an array of blitzes (18 on 42 drop-backs). Especially on third downs, they were able to create at least one free rusher and then they had one or two defenders bailing out to take away the middle of the field. However, the Bucs made some very effective adjustments in the second half with hot-route to defeat those blitzes and putting that “bail defender” I will call it here in a bind, with a seam and spot route underneath for example. Of course the Chiefs still got two interceptions off Brady, that stopped promising drives, but when you look at what went wrong on those plays, first Ronald Jones overset to the outside trying to pick up Tyrann Mathieu off the edge, which led to an underthrown deep ball by Brady that was brought in by Bashaun Breeland along the sideline, as Scotty Miller got pushed out wide on his release, and then Mathieu got an INT of his own, as Mike Evans didn’t recognize the pressure and the ball went off the helmet of a blitzing Daniel Sorensen. In general, they were able to get the ball out quickly – especially to their tight-ends – to take advantage of limited resources in coverage and on the final two drives, when KC brought heat almost every single snap, they were punished for it.
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What each team can take away:

A couple of adjustments that I already saw in the first meeting or that I would like to see for each team would be:
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For the Bucs, the one thing I want to see most is using more dummy counts to show pressure pre-snap and give Brady a clear picture. Whether they try to block it up with the tight-ends and backs in protection or alert the hot read, the more information they can get from a Spagnuolo defense that prides itself on disguising pressures and coverages, they more adept they will be at defeating those. Once they do that, this could turn into a chess match, where the Chiefs show something different intentionally to make Brady kill the original play and then have to pull the ball down anyway, as the picture changes once the snap is off. And something else they should take advantage of is isolating what is a below-average group of linebackers in the passing game. Their RB core isn’t overly impressive in terms of their receiving abilities, especially when you look at the amount of drops we have seen from Leonard Fournette, but maybe they dig LeSean McCoy out more for this matchup and see if he can win on option routes and Tampa actually put AB in the backfield a couple of times in the backfield in their prior meeting, only they ran him downfield on wheel routes.
Defensively I already saw some stuff that I really through quarters two to four, in terms of using their safety tandem to bracket Hill and Kelce on a lot of snaps and on key downs in particular, forcing the ancillary pieces of that offense to beat them. I will mention one of my X-factors and his role in how that “gamble” could end up in the next segment, but those two guys accounted for 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s total passing yardage. So it’s certainly a chance worth taking and if you go with a game-plan, where your two stand-up guys on the second level are more involved in covering space underneath, as Tyreek may be utilized as more of a decoy that runs off the deep coverage, you can eliminate a lot of yardage after the catch, since teams that rush four and play coverage have been the ones giving the Chiefs some issues at times. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want the Bucs to not use their linebackers as blitzing threats. They should try to cover up the open gaps with those guys and create one-on-ones across the board, to enable their edge rushers to dominate against KC’s backup tackles. And something the Browns against them a few times, which I really liked, was rushing four or five, but not giving up assets in coverage, as they had somebody drop out to replace those blitzers and still create a free rusher.
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On the Chiefs’ side, I really liked the plan of chipping those two guys off the edges, as I already discussed, with an extra tight-end on the field, and while they are a spread-oriented offense, they had a lot of success when they used 12 personnel and threw the ball out of those looks. Because you can’t cover the whole field and have to take away what Kansas City sends vertically, those TEs and backs are often times all by themselves as they release into the flats. If that happens, like it did in their prior meeting, Mahomes has to take the free yardage and open up the deeper areas of the field again, as the Bucs have to re-adjust. The other thing I can tell you for sure is that the Bucs are obviously terrified of Tyreek burning them deep again and I’m sure there won’t be many chances to just attack their corners in man-coverage for big plays. So if they give Hill a lot soft cushions, they have to repeat what did to the Bills’ Tre’Davious White in terms of getting him the ball quickly on smoke routes and forcing those guys to tackle their electric receiver. While vertical prowess has to be used as a decoy, in terms of putting him in the slot of those three-by-one sets and having him run up the seam, while you attack underneath that. If you get Mecole Hardman one-on-one with their third-best CB on a post-corner route, while the flanker runs a hitch or square-in to bind the guy on the outside, that could be free money.
When I switch to defense, they had a ton of success bringing the blitz and not allowing Brady to step into throws. I would certainly say they were happy with that game-plan and they have reason to feel confident in the guys they have on the back-end, with the way they have showed out so far in the postseason. However, I have now talked about this at length and the Bucs have watched that tape over and over again. There is no way, those guys will be as ill-prepared to counter those pressure packages as they were back in November. Hell, Brady was dicing them up in the fourth quarter and I just detailed how those two picks came about. So Steve Spagnuolo can still bring the heat in certain situations and test Tampa Bay in their ability to pick up the blitz, but he has to be more strategic in how he uses it. The second thing to consider here is how you mask those linebackers, when you decide to utilize them more in coverage. Those players can be very effective as downhill thumpers in the run game, taking on pulling guards and filling holes, but they aren’t great in space. The Raiders in their two matchups against Kansas City had a lot of success attacking that area of the field with crossing routes. Chris Godwin and Gronk would be guys for that task, so maybe if you have them to one side, the opposite linebacker is the one you blitz and you bring down Sorensen or Mathieu to replace him in that hook-area, while looking to pick up anybody working across the field.
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X-factors:

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Buccaneers – Aaron Stinnie & Jamel Dean

I’m not going to give you a name like Scotty Miller here, because at this point, he is more likely to catch at least one deep ball than not. Ronald Jones’ health will be key as well, to give the Bucs that physical one-two punch out of the backfield. However, I’m going with their starting right guard Aaron Stinnie, who just got his first two starts of the year during these playoffs. The Bucs O-line has been dominant over the course of this seven-game win streak, like I already mentioned, holding opponents to just 11 sacks combined in those games and an average of 115 rushing yards during these playoffs, despite some tough competition. Alex Cappa was one of the road-graders on the interior for Tampa and only missed three total snaps throughout the regular season, before fracturing his ankle mid-way through their Wildcard game at Washington. Stinnie has since stepped since then and played pretty well, but he was also responsible for the only sack on Brady in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, when Kenny Clark went right through him on a bull rush. Well, the challenge will not get any easier, as I’d expect the Chiefs to line up Chris Jones in the B-gap as much as possible and try to exploit that matchup, on passing downs in particular. That’s why it will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the chains, unlike they did in the first matchup, and slow the rush down a little bit. Good thing Stinnie is lined up in-between arguably the top rookie right tackle of 2020 in rookie Tristan Wirfs and one of the better centers in Ryan Jensen, who will be looking to land a rib-shot on the guy over Stinnie, on the snaps that he is uncovered for.
As for the Bucs defense, that whole group of corners will have to step up in a major way, as they hope to slow down this explosive KC passing attack. Obviously, Carlton Davis’ name will come up a whole lot early on during the broadcast, as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz show what Tyreek Hill did to him early on in that week 12 meeting, and I could see Hill be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot a whole lot as well, but since I expect the safety to that side to keep his eyes constantly on him, when he lines up inside and makes it easier to bracket to some degree. Instead, I’m looking at Jamel Dean, who primarily is Tampa Bay’s field-side corner, unless they have Davis travelling with the opposing team’s number one receiver in certain matchups, which I wouldn’t expect, as the Bucs coaches go back to the tape of that first matchup. If Todd Bowles is smart – and from what I’ve seen from his as a coach, as much as aggressiveness may have hurt him at times, he is – he will build on what they did in the second half of that last game, when he used his two safeties to bracket Hill and Kelce almost every snap and forced the rest of that receiving corp to beat them. That puts the spotlight on guys like Sammy Watkins if they line him up more at Z, Demarcus Robinson and others, as those guys will pretty much be one-on-one with Dean. While the coverage numbers would indicate otherwise – in part because he draws the easiest assignments – to me he is the weakest link of this secondary and has been highly vulnerable to double-moves. The Chiefs might be burn him once more on Sunday.
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Chiefs – Andrew Wylie & Juan Thornhill

I thought about going Sammy Watkins here for the Chiefs offense, because he hasn’t suited up for them since week 16 and he hasn’t caught at least five passes in a game since week three, but averaged almost 100 receiving yards during last year’s playoff run. And you should also get accustomed with who wears number 48 for them, because Nick Keizer may have only caught six passes through the regular season, but he has become KC’s TE2 on the depth chart, playing just over a quarter of the snaps, and he could have a key role as an extra protector or chipping those edge rushers. Instead, I’m going with KC’s new starter at right tackle, who was slotted in at RG for all but one game so far. With blindside protector Eric Fisher unfortunately tearing his Achilles late in the AFC title game, Mike Remmers – who originally replaced Mitchell Schwartz on the right end of the line – is now switching sides and Andrew Wylie is sliding one spot outside. And he will face a tough task, after only having started one game on the edge against the Saints and now getting a heavy load of Shaq Barrett, who primarily rushed off that side. Let’s see if Wylie has the quickness in his kick-slide to counter Barrett’s speed and if the latter can get him on a dip-maneuver, like he beat Eric Fisher for a strip-sack on when these two teams last met. Steven Wisniewski will step in at Wylie’s original spot, but he has been one of the most dependable veteran linemen of the last decade in my opinion.
Defensively, I’m looking at the guy who missed Kansas City’s Super Bowl run last year, after an excellent rookie campaign. Their secondary was the star of the show against Buffalo, to send them to the Super Bowl, by disrupting route patterns at the line of scrimmage and not allowing receivers to separate late. A big reason they felt comfortable doing that was their safety tandem, with Tyrann Mathieu being in more of a robber role and dropping down in Tampa-2, to go along with the rangy Juan Thornhill, who broke up four passes and nearly picked off two of them. Steve Spagnuolo has those safeties doing a ton of late rotations, bailing Daniel Sorensen out for two-high shells, Honeybadger turning into a freely roaming robber and often times Thornhill ending up as the deep middle safety. As a single-high defender, he makes it almost impossible to push the ball down the hashes and he has the ability to make plays outside numbers. That will be crucial against all the deep balls Tampa Bay attempts and if one of those corners loses Mike Evans or Antonio Brown off the line by lunging in press, he could be the guy who decides if there will be a 40+ yard gain or maybe even an interception, if Brady puts too much air under the ball and tries to give his receiver time to track it. I can’t wait to watch that chess game between the Chiefs’ second-year safety and the ultimate student of the game in Brady, who will try to manipulate him with his eyes and body language, in order to keep the defender away from where he wants to go with the ball.
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Prediction:

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On paper, the Bucs have the better and healthier roster at this moment. You look at the offensive line in particular, where they still have four of their day one starters, while the Chiefs’ only full-time starter at his original position is center Austin Reiter and they will have two guys at those tackle spots, that have barely never played there for Kansas City. In terms of pass-catchers, it’s hard to argue that you could put anybody above the Chiefs group of track stars, but you don’t need a full hand to count off the teams that you would put ahead of the Bucs. There is also a pretty clear advantage on the defensive line for the home team, when you look at them being top three in pressure percentage, while KC is outside the top ten. And while I would give the Chiefs the nod in terms of the back-end, seeing how they have stepped up so far this postseason at full health, the Bucs’ group has made plenty of plays to take them to the Super Bowl and linebacker is not even a competition, watching Devin White and Lavonte David fly around the field. And of course, they have the number one rush defense, while the Chiefs rank 21st, and they are both average at running the ball themselves.
Schematically, Tampa certainly has to make some adjustments, as I have already discussed in length, having solutions for the blitz packages Steve Spagnuolo will throw at them and not allowing the Chiefs two main weapons to beat them. Right now, I give the clear advantage to the reigning champs when it comes to the coaching staffs and as great as Brady has been for two decades now and the how clutch he has been on the game’s biggest stage, we may be witnessing the one guy, who has a chance of dethroning him one day as the GOAT. Spags has a proven track record of success against Brady and I’m sure Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been in the lab, cooking up new things to throw at the Bucs defense, figuring out ways to score points all four quarters, but in the end it comes down to Patrick Mahomes being able to make plays nobody else in football can. Shaq Barrett and JPP could have a field day against these two backup tackles and I think Todd Bowles will also have a couple of things up his sleeves that the Chiefs haven’t seen, but last year’s Super Bowl MVP is the ultimate equalizer. He will shake out of a sack and find Kelce for a huge third-down conversion and he will have another like twelve-step drop and fire a deep ball off his back-foot to break Tampa’s neck.
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Chiefs 34 – Bucs 28

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So give me the Chiefs here and I’ll take the chalk with Mahomes earning MVP honors, winning back-to-back titles and setting the foundation for a potential dynasty in Kansas City.
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If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece!
Also make sure to check out my video on the ten biggest questions heading into Super Bowl LV!