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A moron's thesis on the market impact of COVID-19 and why you might want to come out of the bear closet you're hiding in
Edit: TLDR this shit is about to escalate. Buy puts. Edit 3: I'm just a dude on the internet people, not a fucking swami or professional. I have no clue what you should do with your positions. I've seen too fucking much speculation lately on just how bad this COVID-19 shit is. Some say its the sniffles. Other say its the start to World War Z. More specifically I've seen this referenced as the next big "Black Swan" event because this sub is a bunch of fucking amateurs (myself included) and they just regurgitate whatever bullshit movie or book they read and used to self-proclaim themselves the next Michael Burry (see what I just did there? I'm speaking your language). I've read my fair share of shit too assholes. The Big Short, Liars Poker, Flash Boys, Chaos Monkeys, Zero To One, the new /WallStreetBets book (which doesn't come in a fucking hardcover and looks like a fucking disgrace in my library). What I have come to realize is there is no fucking science to stocks. [Yes there is, you claim. Stonks only go up. Science duh]. However there is science to a virus works and how a pandemic spreads. So I've thrown together some half-assed research that you can disregard at your pleasure. This includes charts that we are all so fond of reading. Full disclosure, I am not a biologist, doctor, or any expert in the field of virology. I just did some internet readings and used that data to apply my own logic. Undoubtedly there are errors in what lies ahead. Let's begin. COVID-19 Coronavirus is caused by SARS-CoV-2, a incestuous relative of our old friend SARS (we'll get to him shorty). Depending on what you believe this has been caused by some starving Chinese peasants seasoning their soup with bats or the result of a Chinese bioweapon escaping its lab. Long story short its the flu that really fucks you up. This isn't the first virus we've seen rapidly rise to fame. We've got a few historical examples we can look to for comparison. 1) 1918 H1N1 aka Spanish Flu The big bad granddaddy of them all, this is the shit doomsdayers point to when they want to really incite some fear. Firs appearing in January of 1918, this fucker infected almost 500 million and killed anywhere between 40 million to 100 million. ~28% of the United States was infected with a 2%-3% case-fatality ratio. 2) 1956-1958 H2N2 Influenza A aka Asian Flu A bad nickname since most of these could be called Asian Flu. This gets the crown since it was first. Originating in our dear friend China, this spread to Singapore by February of 1957, Hong Kong by April, and the US by June. 69800 deaths in the US with 1-4 million worldwide (WHO estimates 2 million). 3) 1968-1969 H3N2 Influenza A aka Hong Kong Flu Arriving on the scene July 13th, 1968, this hit Vietnam and Singapore by the end of July and was widespread in the US by December of 1968. Case-fatality ratio of 0.5%, it killed 33800 people in the US alone. 4) 2002-2003 SARS Probably the last real panic over an Asian virus, this was declared in November 27th of 2002. There apparently still is no cure. That said, only 8098 cases with 774 deaths occurred (however that is a fatality rate of 9.6%). There were only 27 US cases. 5) 2009 H1N1/09 variation aka Swine Flu What looked to be the sequel to SARS but really was just a lame prequel, this had a case-fatality of 0.01%-0.08%. WHO statistics as of July 2010 attributed 18000 deaths to the virus, but later revisions estimate somewhere around 284,500 deaths. All of these have led to COVID-19 and speculation is rampant as to it's impact on the globe. More specifically for the retards here, it's impact on their portfolios. Unfortunately we don't have a ton of good data on how any of these affected markets. For starters, the stock market today is quite different from 20 years ago, and the global economy is much more entangled. News travels faster, and we have a way of sensationalizing everything. We can look at the markets during each of the aforementioned virus' (minus the 1918 Spanish Flu. If this happens there won't be a stock market). The most recent two virus', H1N1/09 and SARS, both have unusable market data. Why? Because when both virus' struck, we had just popped two of the largest bubbles in history. H1N1/09 struck in March of 2009, right in the midst of the Great Recession. The market had already bottomed, the Feds were writing blank checks, and the economy was already in triage. SARS came to fruition in November of 2002, one month after the NASDAQ hit bottom from the DotCom bubble. What impact these virus' had on the world market is tainted by the preexisting financial landslides. In January of 1957 the S&P 500 was valued around ~418 (inflation adjusted). When the virus hit the US in June, the S&P 500 was actual up to ~434.86. By December of 1957 the index value was 363.23 points. I feel however, that the 1968 Hong Kong Flu is our best comparison to COVID-19 and any impact the virus could have on the overall market. Just look at these numbers. S&P 500 (inflation adjusted) July 1968 722.49 (virus reaches Singapore and Vietnam) December 1968 754.75 (widespread in the United States) February 1969 707.12 August 1969 665.90 June 1970 483.52 H3N2 struck a year before the Recession of 1969-1970, a recession that ended the third longest period of economic expansion in US History. According to Wikipedia: "At the end of the expansion inflation was rising, possibly a result of increased deficit spending during a period of full employment. This relatively mild recession coincided with an attempt to start closing the budget deficits of the Vietnam War (fiscal tightening) and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates (monetary tightening).[2] During this relatively mild recession, the Gross Domestic Product of the United States fell 0.6 percent. Though the recession ended in November 1970, the unemployment rate did not peak until the next month. In December 1970, the rate reached its height for the cycle of 6.1 percent." However I would once again argue this is a poor example, as the market didn't seem to rock much during the actual outbreak, and some of the surrounding factors of the recession were different than those of today. So what does this mean? In my opinion we are facing a somewhat unknown scenario. Markets don't like unknowns. And there is a lot of fear being tossed around regarding this virus. Markets don't like fear either. So is this unknown fear worth panicking about? Let's look a pair of charts. Some really unhappy charts. This first one graphs all the cases of COVID-19 since its inception on December 31st, 2019, the day China contacted WHO and let them know shit was about to get fucked. https://preview.redd.it/sd9u8lu40gj41.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=72b0923a47fb0c2c19336440d8e86486c1c45341 For the first month of that chart, you don't really see much. Then you see one really big fucking line go parabolic in a hurry, and more recently a bunch of little tiny lines that don't seem to be doing anything. That first line is the number of total COVID-19 cases, dominated by primarily China (>95%). China has had a runaway explosion of cases that *tentatively* seems to be slowing down. Already the panic from this has caused our recent markets to approach/enter correction territory in the matter of a week. Now lets go zoom in on those tiny lines: https://preview.redd.it/09ubl9360gj41.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=7529cf1eaedf0c4a4019c3e19da0515ce5fe9f97 Holy shit, they are fucking going parabolic too. After a rough incubation period of about a month, we start seeing an explosion of cases in infected countries. South Korea has especially been taking it through the teeth. These are fucking exponential jumps. If these were stocks, they'd be memed to death already. If you were investing in virus outbreaks in countries, you can bet your fucking ass most of this sub would be buying calls on every fucking one of these nations with new cases. So lets see, we have an economy that is nonsensical, in a trade war with a nation who is ground zero for a sweeping health crisis. We have recession indicators blowing up everywhere, fucking Twitch streamers jumping into stocks, markets getting spooked to death over this virus, global supply chains being interrupted, the Feds pumping the markets desperately, and now this virus has decided to start going apeshit? WHO declared this an international health emergency on January 22nd. WHO has YET to declare this a pandemic. We overtook the SARS death toll on February 9th, three weeks ago. People went nuts about SARS. According to Wikipedia in regards to Swine Flu, "Critics claimed the WHO had exaggerated the danger, spreading "fear and confusion" rather than "immediate information". The WHO began an investigation to determine whether it had "frightened people unnecessarily"'. So if WHO took flak for overselling Swine Flu in 2009, I would wager they are underselling COVID-19 now. Did you watch that speech last night people? What about any of this is inspiring confidence? I don't want to imagine what the presser would be if the number of US cases went parabolic. Hell it might already have done so. This wouldn't be the first time the current administration has fudged numbers. In just the last week: Denmark, Estonia, Greece, North Macedonia, Georgia, Norway, Pakistan, Romania, Croatia, Austria, Brazil, Switzerland, Algeria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Israel all reported their FIRST cases. Iran and Italy have gone parabolic. South Korea looks like its gonna hit China numbers from a month ago soon. We have outpaced almost every historical example of a major pandemic BESIDES the 1918 Spanish Flu. Also this virus is matching the %2-%3 case-fatality ratio. I'm buying puts out the ass across the next two months. Could this thing fizzle out and blow over in two months? Yes of course. Could this entire post be full of shit and age incredibly poorly by next week? Absolutely. But this sub isn't about investing its about white collar gambling. You have to take the odds when they are in your favor. An overextended market gets hit by an unprecedented external force? The odds have titled. It's time to lay down some fat fucking bets while it exists. Or keep throwing money stupidly at meme stocks and hoping SPCE moves 2 fucking points. Edit 2: In the mere hours since I posted this gibberish, Kuwait, Switzerland, Iran, the UK, South Korea, Iraq, Finland, and Lebanon have reported more cases and deaths. Australia says pandemic inevitable, the US has its first case of unknown origin who wasn't tested for days, and Saudis Arabia just cancelled the fucking pilgrimage to Mecca and Medina. After a few hours sleep I feel even more confident in this assessment. Sources: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/coronavirus-a-timeline-of-how-the-deadly-outbreak-evolved/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1969%E2%80%9370 http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019 https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H2N2#Asian_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_flu_pandemic
Pore Strips for Teeth Market Size Analysis by SWOT Analysis, Competitive Landscape 2020 Top Key Players, Global Share, Revenue and Growth Analysis till 2026 | Industry Research.co
"Final Report will add the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on this industry." This comprehensive study provides a forecast and analysis of the global “Pore Strips for Teeth Market”. The report unfolds rare and distinguished intelligence regarding the market dynamics including drivers, threats, restraints, and opportunities present in the Pore Strips for Teeth industry. The report sheds light on suppliers to end-users, along with several macro-economic indicators. The research propounds crucial insights regarding the growth trajectory of the Pore Strips for Teeth market. Get a Sample Copy of the Report at -https://www.industryresearch.co/enquiry/request-sample/16070847 About Pore Strips for Teeth Market:
Increasing incidences of teeth discoloration and growing aesthetic dentistry industry is driving the global pore strips teeth-whitening market. Nowadays, use of pore strips for teeth-whitening is increasing among customers for improving their appearance. Pore strips teeth-whitening, finds their extensive application in hospitals, dental clinics, and healthcare centers.
Market Analysis and Insights: Global and Japan Pore Strips for Teeth Market
This report focuses on global and Japan Pore Strips for Teeth Global and Japan market.
The global Pore Strips for Teeth market size is projected to reach USD million by 2026, from USD million in 2020, at a Significant CAGR during the forecast period.
Global Pore Strips for Teeth Market: Competitive Analysis This section of the report identifies various key manufacturers of the market. It helps the reader understand the strategies and collaborations that players are focusing on combat competition in the market. The comprehensive report provides a significant microscopic look at the market. The reader can identify the footprints of the manufacturers by knowing about the global revenue of manufacturers, the global price of manufacturers, and sales by manufacturers during the forecast period of 2015 to 2019. To Understand How Covid-19 Impact Is Covered in This Report-https://www.industryresearch.co/enquiry/request-covid19/16070847 Top Manufacturers Covered in The Pore Strips for Teeth Market Report:
Crest
Smilo Shine
Procter & Gamble
Fairywell
Zimba
Beaming White
DaVinci Teeth-whitening
Spotlight Oral Care Ltd.
Global Whitening
Dental Duty
On the basis of product, this report displays the production, revenue, price, market share, and growth rate of Pore Strips for Teeth Market types split into:
Professional Products
DIY Products
On the basis on the end users/applications, this report focuses on the status and outlook for major applications/end users, sales volume, market share and growth rate of Pore Strips for Teeth Market applications, includes:
Background Coming out of the University of Kentucky in the 2017 NBA Draft, most evaluations of Adebayo thought he could be a stereotypical rim rolling, screening, and defensive big man. His most valuable attribute on offense at the time was his screening, and despite showing some decent post-up game at Kentucky, he was not very versatile. His jump shot wasn’t broken but wasn’t very good. His rebounding was phenomenal at UK, averaging 14 rebounds per game per 100 possessions and 1.2 blocks and 2.7 blocks per game. His massive frame and athleticism also drove him to be projected in the mid-first round as a project Center who could contribute as a backup rotational player right away. Leading up to the Draft, Miami had 2 needs on their roster. Wings and Bigs. Miami already had Hassan Whiteside who was coming off a season where he averaged 17 points and 14 rebounds, but Miami had very little depth behind him. Even more of an issue was their Wing situation. 6’4’’ Dion Waiters was playing 66% of his minutes at SF, Justise Winslow was and still is prone to injuries, and Josh Richardson had not come into his own yet. Most mocks, though, had Miami going big by taking PF John Collins from Wake Forrest or Zach Collins from Gonzaga. Bam was usually projected to fall into the late teens to Chicago and Milwaukee. Some mocks had Bam fall to 23rd to Toronto as well. It was a shock when Bam was taken at the end of the lottery at 14 by Miami. A gamble taking arguably the rawest big man talent in the draft. In his rookie year Bam took on the mantle of backup C for Hassan Whiteside. Bam averaged 19.8 minutes per game and averaged 6.9 points and 5.5 rebounds. His range was limited with 62% of his FG attempts coming at the rim and 23% from in the painted area. He showed promise as a very good defender, where Miami’s Defensive Rating improved by 2.3 points when he was on the court. In his sophomore season, Bam’s role within the team remained the same, but his minutes increased, leading to him averaging 8.9 points and 7.3 rebounds. His finishing ability drastically improved, going from shooting 2% below the league average up to 3 feet in his rookie season to shooting almost 7% above the league average in his sophomore season. His passer rating improved from 3.6 to a 4.6, meaning he went from a poor passer to a below-average passer. After this successful campaign, Miami thought it was time to move on from Whiteside and start Bam. In the 2019 offseason, Miami traded Whiteside to Portland for Mo Harkless and Meyers Leonard. In the 2020 season, Bam broke out, averaging 16.2 points, 10.5 rebounds, and most shocking 5.1 assists per game. Miami sits with the 4th best record in the East at 41-24 and the 6th best offense in the league. This post will break down each aspect of Bam’s game, both positive and negative. The Breakdown Opportunity/Usage One very important factor in the breakout of Bam Adebayo was his increased role with the Heat. In 2020, Bam averaged 34.4 minutes per game, ranking in the 95th percentile, and 91st percentile in the percentage of his team’s minutes he takes up. He also commands 13.8% of Miami’s total possessions, which ranks in the 90th percentile. Bam also spends 17.5% of the game with the ball in his hands, ranking in the 71st percentile. He also has a True Usage on offense of 12.8% on offense, which ranks in the 91st percentile in the NBA. What these stats simply indicate is that Bam’s role and responsibility skyrocketed, with coach Spoelstra giving Bam more responsibility to participate in offensive plays as a decision-maker or scorer. He also carries a major load of the Miami Heat offense with his offensive load measuring out at 31.2. The offensive load is a stat designed by Ben Taylor that measures how much a player contributes to a single offensive possession. Adebayo ranks in the 73rd percentile in this category. Perimeter Shooting Bam is not a shooter…yet. His 3p attempt rate is 1%, meaning he doesn’t shoot 3’s. He does not have a reliable 3-point shot, but maybe in the future, he can develop one that will further enhance his value. His midrange shot is getting better mechanically, but he does not shoot enough 10-16 footers to really put a price tag on his midrange shot. Off-Ball Movement Bam is one of the best off-ball big men in the NBA, as he ranks in the 91st percentile in Movement Attack Rate (36%), which is the percentage of half-court, non-misc. And putback possessions that a player derived from off-screen possessions and cuts. He also rates in the 97th percentile in points per 75 possessions offcuts and off-screen movement at 5.1 points. A lot of this success comes from both Bam’s excellent positioning around the rim or baseline when a driver such as Jimmy Butler enters the paint, drawing attention to himself and finding a cutting Bam. Miami having two high tier perimeter playmakers in Dragic and Butler helps Bam a lot in getting into spots and freeing him up. Dragic ranks in the 89th percentile in passing out on drives and 85th percentile on Assist rate on those drives. Butler ranks in the 75th and 79th percentile in those categories, respectively. Butler being such an elite finisher (84th percentile in FGM at the rim vs. expected), draws the defense to him and can dump the ball to Bam on the cut to the rim. Despite being such a simple play, knowing where you are on the court and awareness to get into position is very important in an offense. Rim Rolling, Post Play. and finishing Bam is his team's best and only primary rim roller. 48% of Miami’s possessions that require a roll man involve Bam as that roll man, which ranks in the 99th percentile. Bam scores 0.2 points above the league average on roll plays, which places him on the 85th percentile in the League. Bam, at this early stage in his career, is almost exclusively a roll man on pick and rolls, rolling to the rim 79% of the time, while popping 9% and slipping 13% of the time. H ranks in the 68th percentile on points per 75 possessions on those rolls to the rim. Bam’s screening is also elite, ranking in the 93rd percentile in screen assists. His rim rolling ability draws a lot of attention, as he ranks in the 89th percentile in the amount of gravity he draws when he rolls per 75 possessions. This rim gravity opens up a lot for the Heat, who have some of the best spacing in the NBA, headlined by sniper Duncan Robinson. Lineups around Bam rank in the 75th percentile in spacing, and with Bam drawing attention on his rolls, he frees up this very good spacing. Being surrounded with some of the better playmaking talents in the NBA helps in getting him the ball on the rolls, hence him being so efficient at it. Lineups around Bam rank in the 67th percentile in playmaking ability. Bam posts up 19% of possessions, which ranks in the 73rd percentile. When shooting from the post, he tends to go to the rim 64% of the time, followed by hook shots 22% of the time. Bam likes to attack the post via Face-up 54% of the time while he also goes baseline 35% of the time. He also, like many other big men, prefers to work on the Left(43%) and Right(48%) blocks rather than the middle(10%). Despite these preferences in post play, Bam is not very versatile in this aspect of the game. His post style rating, basically a 0-100% rating of his post move distributions based on league averages, is in the 40th percentile. Compounding this with his points scored per 75 possessions compared to league average, which Bam ranks in the 19th percentile, you get someone who is not very adept at scoring in the post. But Bam’s bright spot here is that he ranks in the 66th percentile in potential assists form the post. This is something we will look into when we dive into Bam’s passing. Bam drives more often than most of the elite Centers in the NBA, with 7.1 Drives per 75 possession, which ranks in the 61st percentile. This is ahead of Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Karl-Anthony Towns. All of whom rank below the 60th percentile. Of these drives, 3.9 of them are unassisted, which ranks in the 79th percentile. His passout rates on these drives are low, both below the 45th percentile, but his rate of drawing fouls on these drives is in the 78th percentile. Bam’s largest improvement the last couple seasons since his rookie year has been his finishing around the rim. This season, he boasts a 66.7% adjusted FG% at the rim, which ranks on the 87th percentile and in the 71st percentile on FGM at the rim vs expectation. Another major improvement he has made this season is despite not reaching the midrange areas yet, the has extended his range to beyond 3 feet. He now shoots 45.7% from 3-10 feet, 3.5% above the league average. He developed exceptional touch on a floater that has made him much more effective in this range. This extended range allows Miami to have Bam handle the ball at the top of the key rather than having him simply post up or stand in a dunker spot. Passing Bam Adebayo is the 2nd best passing big man in the NBA. Only behind Nikola Jokic obviously. Bam’s passing evolution was not only a surprise this season, but a complete an utter shock. Nobody, not even Heat fans thought Bam would be this good at playmaking. But it happened, and now, like Denver, we are seeing how a big man with playmaking abilities can change an offense. Miami does not have a singular primary creator like the Lakers for example. They playmake via a committee of Dragic, Butler, and Bam. Bam assists on 14.6 points per 75 possessions, which ranks in the 86th percentile. His role adjusted assisted points per 75 is measured comparatively to others who bear the same role on offense Bam has in Miami. In this, he ranks in the 98th percentile, well outperforming his role on offense. His potential assists per 100 passes is in the 79th percentile at 18.8 potential assists. Bam also averages 5.0 high-value assists per 75 possessions, which ranks in the 86th percentile. A high-value assist is the sum of assists that lead to 3 pointers, free throws, and rim shots. Bam ranks in the 97th percentile in High-Value Assists over expectations based on their ability to create scoring opportunities for their teammates. This is measured relative to his passing aggressiveness and ball control. It sits at a +94.1. This makes Bam one of the most valuable playmakers in the game. He is only surpassed by the likes of Trae Young, Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, etc. We see Bam’s passing prowess on display in the post, where he ranks in the 66th percentile in potential assist in the post, which is more than Nikola Jokic(65th percentile). There are other factors that play into Bam’s passing impact. He is surrounded by high end offensive talent. The Miami Heat around Bam rank in the 89th percentile offensively and in the 75th percentile in spacing, which would be higher if Jimmy Butler could hit a 3-point shot. Goran Dragic ranks in the 60th percentile on Catch and Shoot 3 point% (37.4). Kelly Olynyk ranks in the 90th percentile (44.2%), and Duncan Robinson ranks in the 93rd percentile (45.7%). Bam now has these three high-value pass out options from the post or off pick & roll. Bam is also surrounded by 2 of the best off-ball players in the league. Jimmy Butler ranks in the 92nd percentile on points scored from off ball movement per 75 possessions in the NBA. He also ranks in the 90th percentile in cuts per game. He is also an elite finisher, ranking in the 84th percentile in FGM at the rim vs expectation. The Heat will run a pick and roll, where Bam rolls to the FT line, gets the ball and draws attention, and finds a cutting Butler near the basket. The same can be done with Duncan Robinson, but at the 3-point line. Bam will get the ball and a cutting Robinson runs from one corner to the other, possible having his defender help on Bam. Duncan Robinson ranks in the 85th percentile in points scored off movement per 75 possessions, 96th percentile in possessions per 75 where he scores on an off-ball screen. The Heat also run screen handoff with Duncan Robinson at the 3-point line, which is one of the most efficient plays in basketball, where Duncan Robinson ranks in the 91st percentile in Handoff points per possession. The Impact Despite all these attributes Bam has on offense, his impact on that end varies statistically. Bam’s PIPM (Player Impact Plus/Minus) is a +2.8, ranking him in the 95th percentile, but his Offensive PIPM is 0.8, which puts him in the 85th percentile. This indicates that he is a slight positive on offense. His Offensive RAPTOR is a -0.5, putting him in the 58th percentile; mediocre. His Offensive RAPTOR on/ff is a +2.5, ranking him in the 83rd percentile. His Offensive Box Plus/Minus is a +1.6, which is in the 86th percentile. Personally, I think these stats slightly understate his value, as his rolling gravity and passing are high-value assets, but his lack of ability to legitimately space the floor forces Miami to play him at Power Forward a lot and starting Kelly Olynyk at Center. Having elite off-ball talent around you helps a lot with passing. His post play needs a lot of work, as he’s not really scoring there so much as creating off passouts and dump offs. Note: If this post does well I will be doing a write up on KAT. Also, thanks for reading through my post. Bam Post to Olynyk 3 https://streamable.com/2zehl3 Bam to Robinson Hand-off 1 https://streamable.com/eb1gbh Bam/Robinson Hand-off 2 https://streamable.com/sc232i Bam/Robinson Hand-off 3 https://streamable.com/cge4th Bam PostUp to Robinson https://streamable.com/hac9nk Bam Pick and Roll to Robinson https://streamable.com/67tvc2 Bam Drive to Dragic https://streamable.com/5t132z Bam Handoff to Dragic https://streamable.com/h2eofh Bam Dragic Handoff 2 https://streamable.com/tolbwk Bam to Butler off Pick and Roll https://streamable.com/gyiv17 Bam to Butler from high post https://streamable.com/o89gv5 Bam to Butler from High Post 2 https://streamable.com/8s01pe Bam to Butler on High post 3 https://streamable.com/rbfqzd Bam Adebayo is one of the best in the league at creating off of his rim running gravity, being only 1 of 3 big men with at least 5 High-Value assists/75 and rank in the 80th+ percentile in Roll Gravity/75.
Tonight, President Donald Trump addressed the nation in his second annual State of the Union address. Originally scheduled for January 29, the address was delayed due to the 34 day government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history. Trump discussed job security, employment, taxation, border security, immigration, manufacturing, trade, infrastructure, healthcare, drug prices, the opiate crisis, abortion, space exploration, and the Middle East. A democratic response will follow the address.
Beauty and Personal Care Products Market Size 2020 With Top Countries Data, Industry Analysis by Regions, Share, Revenue, Prominent Players, Development Strategy, Business Prospect and Forecast to 2025
📷 Global “Beauty and Personal Care Products Market” is a comprehensive research that provides information regarding Beauty and Personal Care Products market size, trends, growth, cost structure, capacity, revenue and forecast 2025. This report also includes the overall study of the Beauty and Personal Care Products Market share with all its aspects influencing the growth of the market. This report is exhaustive quantitative analyses of the Beauty and Personal Care Products industry and provides data for making strategies to increase Beauty and Personal Care Products market growth and effectiveness. Get a sample copy of the report at - https://www.industryresearch.biz/enquiry/request-sample/15711090 The Global Beauty and Personal Care Products market 2020 research provides a basic overview of the industry including definitions, classifications, applications and industry chain structure. The Global Beauty and Personal Care Products market report is provided for the international markets as well as development trends, competitive landscape analysis, and key regions development status. Development policies and plans are discussed as well as manufacturing processes and cost structures are also analysed. This report additionally states import/export consumption, supply and demand Figures, cost, price, revenue and gross margins. "Final Report will add the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on this industry."
In COVID-19 outbreak, Chapter 2.2 of this report provides an analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy and the Beauty and Personal Care Products industry.
Chapter 3.7 covers the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 from the perspective of the industry chain.
In addition, chapters 7-11 consider the impact of COVID-19 on the regional economy.
To Understand How Covid-19 Impact Is Covered in This Report - https://www.industryresearch.biz/enquiry/request-covid19/15711090 The objective of this report: Under COVID-19 outbreak globally, this report provides 360 degrees of analysis from supply chain, import and export control to regional government policy and future influence on the industry. Detailed analysis about market status (2015-2020), enterprise competition pattern, advantages and disadvantages of enterprise products, industry development trends (2020-2025), regional industrial layout characteristics and macroeconomic policies, industrial policy has also been included. From raw materials to end users of this industry are analyzed scientifically, the trends of product circulation and sales channel will be presented as well. Considering COVID-19, this report provides comprehensive and in-depth analysis on how the epidemic push this industry transformation and reform. Global Beauty and Personal Care Products market competition by TOP MANUFACTURERS, with production, price, revenue (value) and each manufacturer including:
Unilever
Procter & Gamble Co
Beiersdorf AG
Avon Products, Inc.
Avon Products Inc.
Revlon, Inc.
L'Oreal S.A.
Estee Lauder Companies Inc.
Global Beauty and Personal Care Products Market providing information such as company profiles, product picture and specification, capacity, production, price, cost, revenue and contact information. Upstream raw materials and instrumentation and downstream demand analysis is additionally dispensed. The Global Beauty and Personal Care Products market development trends and marketing channels are analyzed. Finally, the feasibility of latest investment projects is assessed and overall analysis conclusions offered. Enquire before purchasing this report - https://www.industryresearch.biz/enquiry/pre-order-enquiry/15711090 On the basis of product, this report displays the production, revenue, price, market share and growth rate of each type, primarily split into:
Hair Care Products
Facial Care Products
Shower Gels
Oral Care
Men's Grooming Products
Deodrants and Antiperspirants
Cosmetics/Make-up Products
On the basis of the end users/applications, this report focuses on the status and outlook for major applications/end users, consumption (sales), market share and growth rate for each application, including:
Specialist Retail Stores
Supermarkets/Hypermarkets
Convenience Stores
Pharmacies/Drug Stores
Online Retail Channels
Others
Geographically, the detailed analysis of consumption, revenue, market share and growth rate, historic and forecast (2015-2025) of the following regions are covered in Chapter 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14:
North America (Covered in Chapter 7 and 14)
Europe (Covered in Chapter 8 and 14)
Asia-Pacific (Covered in Chapter 9 and 14)
Middle East and Africa (Covered in Chapter 10 and 14)
South America (Covered in Chapter 11 and 14)
Some of the key questions answered in this report:
What will the market growth rate, growth momentum or acceleration market carries during the forecast period?
Which are the key factors driving the Beauty and Personal Care Products market?
What was the size of the emerging Beauty and Personal Care Products market by value in 2019?
What will be the size of the emerging Beauty and Personal Care Products market in 2025?
Which region is expected to hold the highest market share in the Beauty and Personal Care Products market?
What trends, challenges and barriers will impact the development and sizing of the Global Beauty and Personal Care Products market?
What are sales volume, revenue, and price analysis of top manufacturers of Beauty and Personal Care Products market?
What are the Beauty and Personal Care Products market opportunities and threats faced by the vendors in the global Beauty and Personal Care Products Industry?
Years considered for this report:
Historical Years: 2015-2019
Base Year: 2019
Estimated Year: 2020
Beauty and Personal Care Products Market Forecast Period: 2020-2025
I've compiled a hypothetical Fantasy First Division All-Star Team for the 1960-61 campaign. Obviously, the complete data wasn't available so I was forced to improvise. In terms of assists, I've made educated guesses, based both on extrapolation of the modern FPL assist records and on the number of team goals scored by the sides in question during the 1960-61 league run. In terms of bonus points, it was more or less the same. In terms of the appearances, some data was available and whenever it was, I've mentioned it in the write-up below. One more word of introduction: at the time, the dominant tactical setup was 3-2-2-3 with left- and right-halves (who were distant relatives of modern wing-backs), two inside forwards (who I classified as Fantasy midfielders, just like FPL tends to do with Dele Alli, Josh King, etc.), two wingers (akin to Salah, Sterling, Hazard, etc.) and one center-forward. All the Out-Of-Position considerations have been factored in the final team. Oh, and one last thing for those wondering about the inflated point tallies: with 22 teams hanging around, each club's season featured 42 games instead of 38, giving players more opportunities to score points.
The Team
Ron Springett (Shef Wed) has kept 16 clean sheets and, according to the estimates, just barely edged out Preston's Fred Else despite the latter likely picking up an insane number of save points for his relegated side. Springett was a part of the 1966 World Cup winning team but only received his winning medal 43 years after the actual victory - as the FIFA rules in 1966 only awarded medals to the players who made on-field appearances in the tournament. Gerry Young (Shef Wed) scored 4 goals and contributed to Owls' 16 clean sheets which, in Fantasy terms, set him miles apart from any other 1960-61 defender in the league. Wednesday's most faithful servant, he spent 18 years at the club, 14 of which as a player. He also holds the distinction for switching positions on the pitch: in 1962, he transitioned from being a left half to a central defender and later also frequently featured as a forward. Maurice Norman (Tottenham) scored 4 goals and helped Spurs to 11 clean sheets in their title-winning campaign. The center-half, renown for being a colossus in the air and a formidable sprinter, would make 23 appearances for England before a horrific double-fracture injury suffered in a friendly match ended his career. According to the man's memories, it took the doctors nearly two years before they even figured out the way to (remotely) fix his tibia and fibula! Brian Miller (Burnley) scored 5 goals and helped Clarets to 9 clean sheets. Another one-club man, he's been involved in the club for whooping 42 (!) years, either as a player, a fan, a manager (twice), a chief scout, or a father to his son Dave, who'd also pull the Claret shirt. Nicknamed "Mr Burnley", he ended up playing 455 league and cup games for his beloved side, following it's ventures on TV even from a hospital bed just prior to his death in April 2007. Jimmy Robson (Burnley) scored 25 goals in 36 appearances during the 1960-61 league season. Just like Miller, the inside forward started the season as the First Division champion, despite only being a part-time footballer, otherwise employed as a miner. Curiously, despite scoring on his debut for the England U-23 team against West Germany in Bochum, he's never made another international appearance again. He'd spend 9 years at Turf Moor, scoring 79 goals. Les Allen (Tottenham) scored 22 times in 42 appearances. Without this Spurs' Hall of Fame Member's fabulous, volleyed goal against Sheffield Wednesday, there would be no 1960-61 league title coming to White Hart Lane. The same season, Allen has also hit five goals in an FA Cup replay against Crewe Alexandra. Unfortunately, he's never repeated such feats, lost his starting XI spot two years later and missed out on Spurs' 1963 Cup Winners' Cup glory. Graham Leggat (Fulham) scored 24 league goals that season. Just before joining the Cottagers, the winger has managed to meet 16-years old rookie Queen's Park forward, Alex Ferguson, on the pitch of the Scottish Football League. Five years later, Leggat went on to score the fastest hat-trick in the English League's history, in a 10-1 win over Ipswich. That stupendous, three-minute record was only surpassed by Southampton's Sadio Mané in May 2015. Sir Bobby Charlton (Man Utd) scored 21 times in 39 league appearances. An absolute legend that hardly needs an introduction, Charlton, at the time, was still recovering from the trauma of 1958 Munich air disaster. He's led the depleted Red Devils side to a respectable 7th-place finish and if it wasn't for an abysmal away form (13 defeats in 21 games!), the club would've likely done even better. Four years later, however, United would eventually lift the league... Jimmy Greaves (Chelsea) scored 41 goals in 40 league games. With three hat-tricks, a four-goal haul against Newcastle and a five-goal extravaganza against West Brom, the legendary forward was a player you wished you'd have more than one Triple Captain chip for. He's later cemented his legendary status at Tottenham, contributing both to the slow disappearance of Les Allen and to the Spurs' five trophies between 1962 and 1967. Bobby Smith (Tottenham) scored 28 times in 36 appearances. Another Spurs Hall of Famer, he was one of the lowest-paid title winners in England's history, effectively earning just £17 a week for multiple seasons, up until he was 28 years old. Known for a robust, aggressive style of play, he'd struggle with injuries and later, a gambling addiction - which, however, didn't stop him from becoming THFC's second-best goalscorer of all times - with 208 strikes in 317 matches. David Herd (Arsenal) scored 29 times during the 1960-61 season. Hailing from Manchester, Herd has nearly joined United in 1952, but a last-minute change of heart by the player he was to be swapped for has led him to sign for Arsenal instead. He's become Gunners' 16th best goalscorer of all-time before heading back north and joining Red Devils with a 9-year delay, during the golden era of Dennis Law, George Best and Bobby Charlton. Out of these all-star players, six (Young, Norman, Robson, Allen, Charlton and Greaves) are still alive, as of August 2019.
The Trivia
Spurs have won the 1960-61 title with 15 wins and one draw in their first 16 league matches.
Despite storming through the season, Spurs still lost at home to... relegated Newcastle (1-2).
Runner-ups Wednesday kept 16 clean sheets in what was defensively the best season in their history.
Arsenal were deadly at home (12 wins) and borderline useless away from it (only 3 wins).
Chelsea have managed to keep only a single clean sheet in 42 games (2-0 away at Preston).
Preston went down with 11 clean sheets, the second-best shut-out record (level with Spurs).
I made a comprehensive guide for those of you lurkers who suffer from extreme constipation
I now maintain an updated and more user-friendly version of this guide at /ConstipationAdvice. I've seen that many of you have chronic constipation but you do not understand why you have it, and your general practitioner doctors either don't think you have an issue or don't know what to do. I know how you feel. I know what it's like to not even feel like a human being because you can't go to the bathroom like everyone else. It is frustrating and depressing, and not something you can just go around telling people. I hope this guide helps you a ton. BECOME A DETECTIVE Keep this in mind as you proceed: your disorder is a puzzle. All you have to do is solve it. You can do it, if you have a great deal of patience, persistence, and commitment. Become your own investigator. Figure out your digestive cycle and your body's language. Listen to your body. Keep notes - I'm talking handwritten or typed notes, anything that will help you make a paper trail. Women: I have left a special note for you at the bottom regarding the additional problems you face when dealing with doctors. Please read it. WHY I MADE THIS GUIDE I'm a (mostly) healthy, physically active 31-year-old male. I have spent years seeing doctors, reading studies, accosting and interrogating medical professionals and pharmacists, calling pharmaceutical companies, and generally being an interrogator to anyone who has information that could help improve my life. This post is the aggregation of my conclusions and recommendations. In 2012 I got constipated. I grabbed an OTC laxative and was fine after that. But then the constipation happened again a few months later. It became more frequent, going from once a month to once a week, to every day. As of 2016, I was completely unable to eliminate without the use of pharmaceutical drugs. It took seven years for doctors to figure out what was wrong with me. I made this post because I want to help some of you turn my 7-year journey into a 7-month journey. Print this guide out and keep it with you. I've done all the heavy lifting for you. I did all of these myself, and now I want to help you. You will spend money on all of this, but it will change your life. You will be glad you did it. QUESTIONS FOR YOU If you suffer from severe chronic constipation, you need to answer the following questions, write them down, and bring them to your doctor:
Do you have the urge to go, but you cannot? Or do you have zero urge to go? (this is the most important question)
Do you have alternating diarrhea and constipation, or just constipation?
Do you have nausea, vomiting, acid reflux, difficulty swallowing, or early satiety (getting full really early into a meal)?
Have you had this issue since childhood, or did it begin in teen years/adulthood/after a major life event (surgery? divorce? car accident? mauled by bears?)
Did you in the past or do you currently take any medications that could damage your intestines? The acne drug Accutane/Sotret/Claravis/many other names (isotretinoin) has been linked to serious conditions of the digestive tract. I am absolutely convinced that my large intestine was destroyed by this drug. Antibiotics are also a major culprit in ruining the small intestine microbiome and causing diarrhea/constipation disorders. Antidepressants can ruin the serotonin balance in the gut as well.
Did you suffer sexual abuse as a child? There is a high degree of correlation between childhood sexual abuse and adult constipation disorders. Meaning, a lot of people with chronic constipation disorders in adulthood experienced trauma when they were young. This sort of thing must be investigated by both your doctor and a therapist in coordination. Do some Googling on this topic if you believe this might be your issue.
If you have the urge but cannot go, you very likely have Pelvic Floor Dysfunction, especially if you are a woman who has had children. Other indicators of PDF are pain during sex and incontinence. Sorry, but your test is the anorectal manometry - have fun! It can sometimes be treated. Alternatively, you might have a bowel obstruction or a tumor. Your doctor must test for these. If you have zero urge to go to the bathroom, you very likely have a nerve or muscle disorder of the large intestine. These are called motility disorders. This is what I have. The most common are Slow-Transit Constipation, Chronic Idiopathic Constipation, and the dreaded Colonic Inertia. Both are extremely frustrating and difficult to treat. It is especially likely that you've got one of these conditions if you have no associated pain or any other symptoms. Your current gastroenterologist likely specializes in IBS; tell him you want a motility specialist or a neurogastroenterologist. If you have constipation sometimes and diarrhea sometimes, you very likely have IBS-C or a rare form of colitis, or a combination of issues. You may have a nervous condition. Outside chance you have Crohn's Disease. You must be checked for intestinal ulcers/irritation/inflammation, and also for food intolerances and allergies. A buddy of mine had "IBS" for many years, but then later discovered he was allergic to tuna, shellfish, pistachios, and fructose. If you have nausea, vomiting, acid reflux, difficulty swallowing, or early satiety, you very likely have general gastroparesis, where your entire GI tract is sluggish. I'm sorry to say that this is very difficult to treat and a horrible disease. You must see a neurogastroenterologist, AKA a gastroenterologist who specializes in motility disorders, and you must also see a neurologist to test for autonomic neuropathy. You need a prokinetic motility drug like cisapride, domperidone, prucalopride, etc. Don't go on cisapride unless you have excellent heart health and make sure the doctor keeps an eye on your heart at all times. If you have experienced constipation since childhood, you might have Hirschsprung's disease and you need a neurogastroenterologist (a special type of gastroenterologist who studies nerves and motility) to diagnose it by taking a Full-Thickness Biopsy. This is a major surgery and you should try to exhaust all other options first. The Full-Thickness Biopsy comes with its own potentially serious side effects. If you took heavy medications that could possibly have caused your issue, first write out a timeline of events and try to remember exactly when you took the medication and when your issues started. Write down the progression of symptoms and severity. Bring it with you to your doctor appointments. Correlation does not imply causation, but you are a detective now and you need to follow every lead. You need to insist to your GP that you want to see a gastroenterologist (a specialist of your digestive tract, from your mouth to your anus). You need to advocate strongly for yourself because nobody else is going to do it for you. You have to be aggressive in your appointment-making, follow-ups, call-backs, consultations, and arguing with your insurance company about getting your specialty medications covered. You have to do it yourself. You have to fight. If you don't, you will suffer alone. Nobody is going to save you but you. It's time to get smart and tough about your condition. THE FIVE FUNDAMENTAL TRUTHS You are embarking on a journey to improve your health and to discover the cause of your digestive issues. Rather than force you to stumble upon these facts yourself, I'm just going to lay them out for you:
Your general practitioner (AKA "family doctor") does not know anything about your condition. He is not an expert in diseases of the large intestine. With a few exceptions, he is a gatekeeper for the experts that actually can help you. He will only refer you to these experts after you complete a few basic tests. Do them quickly.
The specialist your GP refers you to is also probably not an expert in your condition. Once you arrive at the specialist's office, ask him what his specific expertise is. It took me a year to realize that my specialist was an expert in liver cancer. Womp womp. Your disorder is likely in your large intestine, and your specialist may have spent the years of his fellowship removing nodules from the esophagus. Ask him who he knows that is an expert in motility disorders, and if he doesn't know anyone, tell him to find one and send you there.
You have to elbow your way through the medical system like a Muay Thai fighter if you want to get anywhere. Make your GP give you a referral to a specialist. Make that specialist refer you to the right specialist. Make that specialist order a bunch of tests. Then make him lay out a treatment plan for you.
Your insurance is going to act like all of your tests and prescriptions are "experimental." Experimental is insurance-code for "F*ck you, we aren't paying for this." The magic spell to banish this bullshit is the phrase "medically necessary," and only your specialist has the power to utter it. Make sure he does, on all of your prescriptions and test orders.
Your digestion operates in a cycle - just like your sleep cycle. Pay attention to it, listen to it, memorize it. Know the foods your body hates, know what throws your cycle off, know what improves it. Most importantly, once you have the cycle memorized, track its rhythm over a long period of time. After a year or two, you may notice some changes to the cycle. This information is key.
TESTS YOU PROBABLY NEED First, work your way through the following tests with your general practitioner:
Standard blood panel to check for any really wacky levels/deficiencies
Celiac blood panel to eliminate the small possibility that you have Celiac
Fecal blood test. Blood = tumors, ulcers, or perforations
Then, once you have a referral to a gastroenterologist, have him perform the following tests:
Extensive stool cultures: look for rare parasites. Small chance you have SIBO, very small chance you have SIFO, very very small chance you have a Clostridium infection that paralyzes the bowels. Ask the doctor to ensure Clostridia are tested for.
Extensive thyroid panel (sometimes hypothyroidism causes gastroparesis / slow gut transit. This one's an EASY FIX; pray you have this one). You want a full workup, not the standard one.
SITZ Marker Study: The lab will not know what this is or why you're doing it. Follow the doctor's instructions carefully. Do not take laxatives during this study (it lasts a week) because the point is to identify which specific part of your large intestine is broken (ascending, transverse, descending, rectum). If you accelerate transit by taking laxatives, you will give the lab a false result and it will screw up your treatment.
Endoscopy with small bowel aspirate and biopsy; and colonoscopy with biopsy: If you're under 30 your doctor will fight you on this. He is an obstacle. Defeat him. Also, specify that you want two types of biopsies performed: a normal biopsy of the small intestine to check for Celiac and Crohn's, and an eosinophilia biopsy to check for allergies. They won't do this unless you specifically request it. Don't screw up the pre-op prep, no matter how hungry you get. If your condition is severe enough, ask about the Full-Thickness Biopsy which tests for ganglionic nerve density / Hirschsprung's disease. This is a very serious surgery and I urge you to get a second opinion before having it done.
Anorectal manometry and MR Defacography: The anorectal manometry is critically important for people with severe constipation disorders. It really sucks to get it done, but do it.
The AM / MRD test suite is sometimes described as a "motility workup" and it can only be performed at highly specialized GI clinics. You will need to pressure your doctor to help you find one, tell him to contact your insurance company and declare these tests medically necessary. This is a battery of humiliating tests to determine if you have PFD or another nerve-related motility disorder. If you have a good sense of humor and are capable of relaxing in embarrassing situations, it'll be easy.
CT Scan with contrast: This is the one where you drink the radioactive dye and lay down inside a space ship. The point is to find tumors, divurticula, obstructions, etc. Ask the radiologist what s/he sees. Sometimes they'll slip up and tell you. They can't say "You don't have cancer" (that's for your doctor to determine) but they can say "I don't see any tumors."
Risks: Some redditors have expressed disagreement with the CT scan's former position on this list (it was higher up), citing the patient's exposure to radiation as dangerous. They argue a CT scan should only be performed after a colonoscopy. To be clear, a CT scan exposes you to much more radiation than a regular X-ray, but only about 1 in 2000 people develop cancer as a result of a CT scan, and that cancer generally occurs late in life. The reality is, the purpose of the scan is to help diagnose and treat a condition that is debilitating and potentially dangerous to you right now, and you are weighing that benefit against the potential prospect of cancer later in life. Talk with your doctor about the risks vs benefits. Ask him/her if you should do it before or after a colonoscopy. You will have a diagnosis after these tests. If none of these tests result in a clear diagnosis: see my comment here for next steps. TREATMENTS AND MEDICATIONS Disclaimer: I am not a doctor. Make sure to clear each of these with your doctor before proceeding. Do not gamble with your own health. Cycle through these home remedies and request these medications from your doctor, in roughly the following order:
Do all the stupid fiber crap just so you can tell your doctor to shut up about it. Fiber does not help people with motility disorders (people like you, probably). It will not help you - unless you have a lack of the Prevotella bacterium in your gut microbiome. Increasing your roughage intake and eating a plant-based diet will increase your Prevotella count, and might alleviate your condition. If the extra fiber constipates you more, move on.
Cut out all dairy immediately for a month. Dairy is delicious and makes live worth living, but it is disgusting and terrible for you. Almond milk, almond milk ice cream, rice milk, dark chocolate...get used to it.
Cut out all gluten for a month and stick to it. Wheat is insanely hard to digest for almost all people and it causes nothing but problems for people with bowel disorders. Even if your Celiac panel comes back negative, you still might have Non-Celiac Gluten Sensitivity, which is still being researched but quite prominent. Many people immediately see results after cutting gluten. But look out - the shit's in BBQ sauce, soy sauce, it's in the air, it's in the water, it's in your pillow, it's everywhere. It's as if the USDA has an agreement with US farmers to sprinkle wheat in literally every f*cking food product.
Try the FODMAP diet and stick to it. Eliminate all potential dietary causes of your constipation, then reintroduce them one at a time to identify the culprit. For 90% of you, diet has nothing to do with your constipation. You have a nerve disorder. As a rule of thumb, grains are all difficult to digest and should be avoided, but I've found that potato and corn are easiest, rice is a bit harder, and wheat and oat are the worst. No idea about quinoa. I strongly recommend sweet potato as a healthy filler replacement for breads. It doesn't even need butter!
Try a few high-quality probiotics. People with intestinal motility disorders have different gut microbiota than normal people, but scientists aren't sure which is the cause and which is the result. A 2015 study showed that Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus, and Prevotella are significantly reduced in people with functional constipation disorders, and their clostridia counts were higher. (Clostridia is bad and requires antibiotics. You can determine if you have this by asking your doctor for a Clostridia-specific stool culture test.) Try Visbiome, VSL#3 if you can find/afford it. Also, try one of these. You want enteric-coated capsules that are not broken down by your stomach acid so they make it to your intestines.
Miralax (polyethylene glycol) is your first line of defense. It's a chemically inert (non-reactive) substance that you mix in water and chug. It's an osmotic laxative, meaning it does not stimulate the nerves/muscles in the intestines. It draws water into the bowel and flushes you out. It works slowly; it might take several days to work. The mainstream medical consensus is that polyethylene glycol is extraordinarily safe and can be used in babies, the elderly, etc. It can be used for years and years. However, there is some evidence now that it's bad for the environment and probably not as good for people as we thought. I'm ignorant of chemistry, but polyethylene sure sounds like plastic to me.
If you need fast relief, go to a health food store with a supplement section and buy a bottle of Magnesium Citrate powder. It must be citrate, and it must be powder. Mix 450mg (usually a heaping teaspoon) into a tall glass of water and chug it as fast as you can. Do this on an empty stomach in the morning before breakfast. If your disorder is mild, you will have to take a dump immediately. Don't get in the car to go to work for a little bit. MagCit is extremely safe and effective. Doctors prescribe it to old people for years and years with no side effects. But if you have renal disorders (kidney problems) talk to your doctor before trying this.
I find that MagCit works best for me right before bed. I have to wake up in the middle of the night to pee out all the water I chugged, but in the morning, I generally am able to empty. By the way, MagCit is also an osmotic laxative.
Cayenne pepper capsules have been used in combination with magnesium citrate with great success in some people. The pepper stimulates peristalsis in the large intestine, and the magnesium draws water to the large intestine. Combined, they propel your gut's contents along. These capsules can be obtained at any health food store with a supplement section; you can get them and magnesium citrate in the same store usually. Be warned, some people report a mild burning sensation both in their esophagus and their rectum (basically like when you eat some really spicy food and it gives you the runs). The regimen I've read that works best is a heaping teaspoon of magnesium citrate in a large glass of water, chased with 1 or 2 Cayenne capsules before bed produces a BM the next morning. Start with a low dose. When you buy the capsules, they'll have a heat rating, usually between 40,000 - 90,000 HU.
Request Lactulose from your pharmacy. It's basically a sugar that helps with bowel transit. Didn't work for me, but it works for some.
Docusate is an OTC stool softener that makes me nauseous and does nothing else, but maybe it'll work for you. MagCit beats its brains out.
Bisacodyl is your go-to OTC stimulant laxative. In the US it's known as Dulcolax, but there are off-brand boxes that are cheaper and similarly effective. Use this carefully. It can exhaust the muscles in your intestines, so while you get relief one day, the next two days you're in a refractory period where constipation starts up again. Use 10mg 2x per week if you have insanely bad constipation like me. Don't exceed twice per week. Use 5mg if you're underweight. Safe to use with MagCit. I like using it in the morning on an empty stomach and I'll skip breakfast that day. The more food you have in your digestive tract, the longer it takes. Empty stomach = 2-4 hours, full = 8-12. Long-term use is frowned upon but there's no actual evidence whatsoever that it causes a problem. Read the case studies if you don't believe me.
L-Arginine is an over-the-counter supplement available at health food stores. It is used by athletes to increase cardiovascular health, but it has a magic side effect: diarrhea! Why? Because it breaks down into nitric oxide synthase, which regulates bowel transit time, and researchers recently discovered is deficient in people with motility disorders. See this conversation for more details. Also, taking this supplement with a small amount of baking soda might increase its effect, according to some athletes who experienced intense diarrhea after doing so (they like baking soda because it reduces acid production / muscle soreness). Oral dosages vary from 2-6 grams but some people go higher. Be careful and talk to your doctor first. L-arginine is also available in suppository form and there is good evidence to believe these are safer and much more effective.
Amitiza (lubiprostone, prescription): Your doctor might prescribe this first. It's an expensive prescription osmotic laxative. It causes nausea in a lot of people and it didn't work for me, but it's a godsend for some. Try it. Take with a great deal of water. DO NOT TAKE AMITIZA WITH LINZESS, MIRALAX, OR MAGCIT BECAUSE THEY'RE ALL OSMOTICS (or behave like osmotics).
Linzess / (linaclotide, prescription, "Constella" in Canada): This is the most powerful prescription "osmotic" (it's actually a Guanylate cyclase-C agonist) in the world, and it will make your ass explode the first time you take it. It comes in strengths of 72mcg (that's micrograms), 145, and 290. I have a lot to say about this medication so read carefully. Also, if you've tried Linzess and it didn't work, please read my how to make Linzess work guide.
First of all, it has a mild prokinetic effect (meaning it stimulates your nerves) in addition to its osmotic effect. This is a good thing. Amitiza does not have this. Your digestion is on a schedule. Some of you go every day. Some every other day. Some once a week. Whatever your normal clockwork is, this medication will sometimes work and sometimes not, depending on how much fecal obstruction there is in your intestine on the day. There were times when 290mcg did absolutely nothing for me, and other times 145 made me run wide-eyed to the bathroom fifteen times in thirty minutes. You will figure out how to make this medication work after a lot of trial and error. Don't just dismiss it the moment it doesn't work. I'm of the mind that no human being should ever take 290mcg and it has got to cause long-term damage to the intestines, but all my specialists disagree. They prescribe this dose to women quite frequently for some reason. Linzess has a penchant for working very well for a few weeks, and then ceasing to work at all. Keep it refrigerated (there's a rumor that it goes bad if it gets warm, but pharmacists will not confirm this). Take it with a large glass of water and stay super hydrated all day. Water is key; it cannot work if you don't drink a ton of water with it. If this medication dehydrates you (it will), grab a bunch of those vitamin/mineral powder packets from the health food store and chug one or two a day. If you get bad headaches/migraines/weak pulse/sweats/nausea, you need to just quit the medication and talk to your doctor. Ask him to reduce the dosage. Although the prescription for Linzess is once daily, I find it works best for me taken twice per week with another medicine like Motegrity (Prucalopride) or Bisacodyl. I take it on an empty stomach in the morning and don't eat anything until it starts kicking in (which is quite fast...usually under two hours). LINZESS HAS A BLACK BOX WARNING against its usage in persons under 18. It is extremely dangerous to children. If you don't hydrate enough on a regular basis, it is also dangerous to you. It is illegal to give it to your kids. If you don't have a gallbladder, mention this to your doctor before taking Linzess. I once heard that's an issue, but I can't find a source online. DO NOT TAKE LINZESS WITH AMITIZA, MIRALAX, OR MAGCIT BECAUSE THEY'RE ALL OSMOTICS (or behave like them).
Motegrity (prucalopride, prescription): This is a brand new drug, the first in its class, and it's a 5-HT4 agonist. It works similar to some antidepressants, by targeting specific serotonin receptors in your intestines. Except Motegrity is a highly specific agonist, meaning it has a narrower range of side effects and typically won't affect your mood. This drug actually works for me, it worked immediately, it still works. Zero side effects. I take it in the morning on an empty stomach, although it can be taken without regard to food.
Most doctors in the US don't even know about Motegrity so ask them to look it up. It's brand new, meaning it's expensive. But don't worry. All of these drugs are insanely expensive. As far as I can tell it is safe to take with osmotics like Linzess but I have not confirmed this with a doctor. In my reading, I see no relevant contraindications between the two. There is a warning in the box that some people committed suicide or experienced suicidal ideation while participating in clinical studies for Motegrity. There is no statistically significant relationship established here, but the company is by law required to make this information public. Frankly, Motegrity has zero side effects on me, and I expect these people killed themselves or thought about it simply because constipation disorders are f*cking horrible and make you depressed. If you live in the UK, Europe, or Canada, your doctor will know this medication as Resolor or Resotran.
Zelnorm/Zelmac (tegaserod, prescription): This drug is similar to Motegrity (insofar that it is also a 5-HT4 agonist). It is older than Motegrity, and considered less safe because it interacts with receptors in a less specified way; there is some evidence that it interacts with cardiac receptors. In plain English this means it might be responsible for causing strokes and heart attacks in some patients. The evidence is debatable. 0.11% of people who used Zelnorm in a study experienced cardiac events, compared to 0.01% who took the placebo. That's 13 out of 11,500 people. The drug is available in the US only to women, although your doctor can order it "off-prescription" if he deems you low risk. Basically don't try this drug if you are overweight or have any notable cardiac family history.
Trulance (plecanatide, prescription): This is the main competitor of Linzess (linaclotide) and has a smaller side effect profile. It appears to work pretty well if osmotics work for you, but I haven't tried it. It also has a mild prokinetic effect (meaning it stimulates the nerves in your intestines). I assume, like Linzess, it is also dangerous to children. Give it a try.
Mestinon (pyridostigmine, prescription): This is where it gets weird. Mestinon is a drug that treats myasthenia gravis, which is a nerve disorder similar to MS. But, it can be used to treat constipation in some cases. It's an acetylcholinesterase inhibitor, meaning it increases your body's levels of acetylcholine. This is a neurotransmitter that is partly responsible for telling your intestines to squeeze. Most doctors will be hesitant to put you on it, but you can give it a try if all else fails. It has a strange side effect profile and causes fainting/blood pressure drops in some people. I never tried it.
An interesting story...there is a woman who did a bit of basement chemistry and figured out that she could spike her acetylcholine levels by literally sticking a nicotine patch on her stomach below the belly button. It caused her bowels to empty after a week of constipation. She then invented Parasym Plus, a supplement that allegedly does the same thing. I bought this and I cannot figure out if it actually worked. Maybe it did a little. There are many acetylcholinesterase-inhibiting drugs on the market. Prostigmin (neostigmine) is one of them. Ask your doctor if he thinks it's a good idea. He'll say it isn't. But if all else fails...
Lexapro (escitalopram oxalate, prescription), or any related SSRI antidepressant: Antidepressants are now being used to treat constipation. Some clever fellow figured out that the majority of serotonin (the mood-regulating neurotransmitter) is manufactured in your intestine, not your brain, and that antidepressants were giving people diarrhea for some reason. I haven't tried Lexapro but it's next on my list and my doctor likes it because of its small side effect profile relative to other antidepressants. This drug has a wider side effect profile than related constipation meds like Motegrity/Tegaserod, meaning you could have mood swings or drops/spikes in energy, etc.
Despite our overwhelmingly negative public opinion about antidepressants, they are rather safe* and effective for many people. It's just that they're over-prescribed. A low dose does help some people normalize bowel function without causing mood/personality changes. *edit: A redditor linked me to this article explaining that some SSRIs can cause long-term GI problems. The comments are worth reading. As with all pharmaceutical drugs, you are weighing your current problem versus the potential side effects of its treatment. Talk to your doctor about the risks and do your own research. Talk to friends and family members who have taken SSRIs.
Erythromycin: This is an OTC (I believe) antibiotic with a very odd side effect: it speeds up gastric emptying and gut motility. Hooray! The case studies are kind of back and forth on its efficacy for constipation, but some doctors swear by it. The problem is that it's an antibiotic.
Here's the thing about antibiotics. They should not be overused or used unnecessarily. They can seriously devastate your gut flora and cause SIBO and worsen your condition. On the other hand, your condition could have already been caused by antibiotics, or by a pathogen that will killed with antibiotics. Proceed with extreme caution.
Colchicine: This is an anti-inflammatory derivative of the autumn crocus plant. In large doses it's highly toxic, but in small doses it's used to treat Gout. However, a recent study determined that it's an effective treatment for Slow Transit Constipation / Colonic Inertia (basically any constipation disorder that does not involve physical blockage like tumors, obstructions, etc). I haven't tried this but my specialist claims it is quite safe in low doses and he would be happy for me to try it out.
For those of you who are diagnosed with slow-transit constipation / colonic inertia:Here is a master list of treatments.
MY PERSONAL REGIMEN: Some of you have asked about my specific medication regimen. After several years of trial and error, I have found regimens that basically make my life normal again. Please note how the regimen evolves over time! Intestinal diseases typically are very transient and change over the years. What works for you now might not work in a while: 2012 - 2014: Senna laxative once per week 2016: Bisacodyl and Miralax twice per week 2017: Magnesium citrate 450mg each morning before breakfast 2019:
2mg Motegrity (prucalopride) daily in morning
145mcg Linzess (linaclotide) every other day in morning
450mg Magnesium citrate before bed
EXERCISE Of all the treatments I've tried, exercise is near the top on the list of effectiveness. Exercise is a conduit for getting all of that stress and potential energy out of your body and away from your guts. Get a standing desk at work (a good company will accept a doctor's note and buy one for you). Stand for half the day, intermittently. Go on jogs in the morning and walks in the evening. Get to the gym and get your knees above your waist - stairmaster, yoga, squats, etc. Just MOVE MOVE MOVE. By doing so you are stimulating the vagus nerve and increasing motility. You will literally shake the poop out. If you live an incredibly sedentary life, you will suffer much more. SURGERY FOR EXTREME CASES Please visit my updated guide at /ConstipationAdvice for new guidance on these surgeries.
For those of you diagnosed with CI, you might be considered for the TAR IA surgery, (total abdominal colectomy with ileorectal anastomosis). This is the laproscopic removal of your entire large intestine and the attachment of your small intestine to your rectum. The nice thing about this surgery is that you still get to go to the bathroom normally, except you have mostly diarrhea for the rest of your life (because your large intestine is the thing that turns diarrhea into solid stool by absorbing water).
The other option is one of many variants of the colectomy (resection or removal of the large intestine) with colostomy or ileostomy. These are both ostomies, which is the surgical creation of a hole in your lower abdomen. A medical bag is affixed to that hole, and your small intestine drains into it instead of down into your rectum. This is a much bigger life change, but from the people I've talked to, it's surprisingly not that big a deal.
If you are interested in these surgeries you will have to have a great number of conversations with many doctors and jump through a lot of hoops. A NOTE FOR WOMEN AND TEENAGERS The feedback I get from most women is that their (male) doctors are extremely dismissive and incredulous about the woman's constipation issues. Doctors are going to act like you are crazy and hormonal. They're going to tell you to just eat some fiber and take some miralax and bugger off. You have to be strong, confident, and knowledgeable of your situation. Do not take no for an answer. Inform your doctor that you are past the standard constipation treatments and this is an ongoing problem that reduces your quality of life and warrants the attention of a specialist. It helps if you appear to know what you are talking about. Learn about your digestive anatomy and understand the difference between your small and large intestine. Understand the constituent parts of the large intestine (ascending, descending, sigmoid, transverse, rectum, etc). This will help you communicate to your doctor more efficiently and it will help you better understand his/her findings. If you show your doctor you've done your homework, it is very likely he/she will take you more seriously. Everything I just said applies to teenagers. The additional problem facing you is that you have an extra gatekeeper: your parents, and the fact that you rely on their insurance. You need to have a level-headed conversation with them about your situation, however embarrassing that may be, and convince them that they need to be advocates for you, not obstacles to you. Getting them on your side now will benefit you greatly when the doctor questions the seriousness of your complaint. A FEW FINAL NOTES
Read. You aren't going to effectively communicate or convince your doctor of anything unless you have some introductory knowledge of your body. Learn about your digestive anatomy and understand the difference between your small and large intestine. Simply knowing this information will help you come up with questions about what could be causing your issue.
Save yourself the remarkable headache and get physical and digital copies of the results of every single test you have performed, even simple blood tests. When you inevitably get transferred to a different specialist, having this stack of files will make your life so much easier.
Your insurance company is going to fight you on some of these medications. Tell your doctor to tell your insurance it is an urgent medical necessity that they cover this medication. They will fold.
DO NOT GIVE UP. Write down your next steps. Follow up on calls, appointments, etc. I keep lists of all my medical to-do's and I cross them off line-by-line. It gives me a great sense of accomplishment and control over this whole situation.
Relax and get your mind off your condition. This is hard. But there is absolutely a psychological component to your condition. For some people, it's entirely psychological (this is called Chronic Idiopathic Constipation or Functional Constipation). People who suffered sexual abuse in childhood often develop constipation disorders in adulthood. Google this and investigate it with your doctor!
I go on long nature walks with my headphones. This is how I unwind. Some people do Ju Jitsu. Some people do music. Spend time with family and engage in your hobbies. This will absolutely help, especially if your condition is idiopathic in nature.
Intractable constipation is often the result of extreme stress. Have a serious brainstorm about whether you need to quit your high-stress job. Are you in an abusive relationship? GET THE FUCK OUT OF IT. Can you afford a week-long spiritual retreat where you take a vow of silence and eat a vegetarian diet and sit in a garden with a pen and paper? DO IT. Now is the time to try all the weird stuff.
Cry whenever you have to; don't bottle anything up.
Talk to other sufferers about it. Reach out and get involved in a community. Support is everything.
Your enemy has a name. You very likely have a motility disorder. It can be caused by an underlying nerve disorder, blood vessel disorder, mechanical muscle failure, neurotransmitter imbalance, hormone imbalance, or bacterial imbalance. Once you get your diagnosis, you will not feel so confused and lost about how to treat it.
Source:Part 1Part 2Part 3 IM: We are now in a position where we can choose the level of suffering in the entire living world, why do it? DP: Around 850,000 or so people worldwide take their own lives each year. Tens of millions self-harm. Hundreds of millions are chronically depressed. These grim figures are just the tip of an iceberg of misery. Words and statistics can’t begin to convey the awfulness of suffering. Yet there is hope. For the first time in history, biotechnology turns the level of suffering in the living world into an adjustable parameter. The biosphere is programmable. Even a handful of genetic tweaks could massively reduce the level of suffering in the world. If used wisely, a combination of artificial intelligence, genetic engineering and synthetic gene drives could eradicate experience below “hedonic zero” altogether. Life on Earth deserves a more civilised signalling system – a motivational architecture based entirely on information-sensitive gradients of well-being. Today, a few fortunate genetic outliers enjoy hints of how such an architecture of mind will function. In future, life based on gradients of intelligent bliss can be the global norm. CRISPR makes paradise-engineering technically feasible. On a more sober note, the easiest way to reduce to reduce suffering in the world doesn’t rely on gene editing, advanced technology or posthuman superintelligence. The biggest source of severe and readily avoidable suffering today is animal agriculture. Factory-farming is inherently abusive. Factory-farms and slaughterhouses are morally indefensible. Our victims are as sentient as small children, and they should be treated accordingly. The death-factories must be permanently closed and outlawed. Any civilisation worthy of the name will be invitrotarian or vegan. IM: Isn’t suffering a necessary part of life? DP: Misery and malaise are so common that it’s easy to believe they are integral to life itself. Gautama Buddha’s “Life is suffering” sounds like a simplistic slogan to temperamentally optimistic life-lovers; but for billions of human and nonhuman animals, it’s true. For over 540 million years, suffering has been endemic to the animal kingdom. A predisposition to mental and physical pain has been genetically adaptive. Discontent promotes the inclusive fitness of our genes. Evolution via natural selection is underpinned by random mutations and the genetic casino of sexual reproduction. Natural selection is “blind” and amoral. But a revolution in genome-editing promises to transform the nature of selection pressure. Parents will shortly be able genetically to choose the pain thresholds, hedonic range and hedonic set-points of their future children. Prospective parents will pick genes and allelic combinations in anticipation of the likely effects of their choices. As the reproductive revolution unfolds, selection pressure in favour of “happy” genes will intensify at the expense of their nastier cousins. Barring revolutionary breakthroughs, growth in subjective wellbeing may only be linear rather than exponential; but genetic engineering plus the pleasure principle are a potent mix. IM: If we do raise the hedonic range, do we lose other values/attributes worth keeping? DP: Engineering a world of indiscriminate bliss wouldn’t merely be risky. Uniform bliss would undermine human relationships, social responsibility, personal growth and intellectual progress. Most people aren’t classical utilitarians: getting “blissed out” would entail losing a lot of what we value as well as the miseries we hate. By contrast, ratcheting up hedonic range and hedonic set-points doesn’t entail adjudicating between different secular and religious values or sacrificing anything we hold dear. Hedonic recalibration doesn’t subvert existing preference architectures. An elevated hedonic set-point can also enhance the diversity of experience; compare how depressives tend to get “stuck in a rut”. Information-sensitive gradients of well-being can preserve what humans find valuable while enriching our default quality of life. Hedonic uplift will vanquish the feelings of emptiness, futility and nihilistic despair that stain so many lives today. Post-Darwinian life based on gradients of bliss will be saturated with meaning, purpose and significance. For sure, there are tons of complications. The biohappiness revolution will be messy. We’d do well to preserve the functional analogues of depressive realism. But the basic point stands. IM: How is genetic engineering different from eugenics? DP: Just as the Soviet experiment polluted the whole language of social justice, likewise the early twentieth-century eugenics movement polluted the whole language of genetic health. Consider the commitment to the well-being of all sentience enshrined in the Transhumanist Declaration (1998, 2009), or the World Health Organisation’s definition of health as set out in its founding constitution (1948): “a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity.” Lifelong health as so defined is impossible with a Darwinian genome. A living world where all sentient beings are innately healthy can be created only via genetic engineering. Societal reform on its own can’t manufacture the molecular substrates of happiness. Etymologically speaking, transhuman civilisation will be the product of eugenics. So in that sense, the critics are right. But genetically engineering the well-being of all sentience is far removed from the coercive “eugenics” and race hygiene policy of the Third Reich. That said, a multitude of legal of legal and ethical safeguards will be essential to navigate the transition to post-Darwinian life – humans are untrustworthy creatures. Not least, we should uphold and extend the sanctity of life. IM: How do we ensure genetic engineering is used safely? DP: All genetic experimentation is inherently risky, not least the gamble of having children. Antinatalists might support a hundred-year moratorium on untested genetic experiments; but such prudence is unrealistic. For evolutionary reasons, most people are determined to have children via sexual reproduction. So we should focus on minimising the risks of such genetic experimentation. Let’s try to balance risk-reward ratios. Preimplantation genetic screening will be hugely cost-effective. Later this century, all babies could and should be CRISPR babies. In the meantime, access to preimplantation genetic screening and counselling ought to be universal. For example, consider the genetic dial-settings that regulate pain-sensitivity. What level of pain tolerance is optimal for our future children – and our older selves? Even now, medical science could eradicate pain altogether simply by knocking out the SCN9A gene – the so-called “volume knob” for pain. However, instant eradication of pain is too hazardous. SCN9A-knockouts would lack not just the ghastly experience of pain but also the vital function of nociception. Children with congenital analgesia need to lead a cotton-wool existence or else they come to serious harm. For now, choosing benign “low pain” alleles for our offspring is much safer. In tomorrow’s world of advanced AI and neuroprostheses, even the mildest “raw feels” of pain could be abolished. In the meantime, we can ensure that new children (and maybe our future selves) have the same exceptionally high pain-tolerance of today’s high-functioning genetic outliers: folk who say things like “Pain is just a useful signalling mechanism.” IM: Should we still pursue genetic engineering if there was peace on earth? DP: Suicide rates typically go down in wartime. There isn’t peace on Earth for the same reason there isn’t peace among chimpanzee troops. Nature “designed” human male primates to (be genetically predisposed to) wage territorial wars of aggression against other coalitions of male primates. Let’s assume, optimistically, that we can prevent future armed conflict without any of the biological-genetic interventions discussed here. The negative-feedback mechanisms of the hedonic treadmill would ensure that countless people would continue to suffer – even in a peaceful world without war, poverty and disease. By its very nature, Darwinian life is sentient malware. Only a biohappiness revolution can fix our sinister source code for good. IM: What other types of human enhancement technologies will considerably affect the nature of humans? DP: Safe and sustainable analogues of empathetic euphoriants like “hug drug” MDMA will revolutionise human relationships. Compare the quasi-psychopathic indifference to most other sentient beings that humans display now. Robolovers, sexbots and designer aphrodisiacs will revolutionise sexual experience. Novel psychedelics, novel genes and novel neurons will open up billions of state-spaces of consciousness as different from each other as waking life is different from dreaming life. “Augmented” reality will be followed by full-blown multimodal immersive virtual reality. “Narrow” superintelligence-on-a-neurochip will be accessible to all; with digital intelligence implants, sentient beings can do everything machine intelligence can do and more. Opt-out cryonics, opt-in cryothanasia, and finally tools to defeat the biology of aging altogether will transform our conception of life and death. Transhumans will be quasi-immortal. But in my view, mastery of the pleasure-pain axis will inaugurate the biggest revolution of all. The end of suffering promises an ethical watershed. Invincible well-being for all sentience will mark a momentous evolutionary transition in the development of life. IM: What are some ethical considerations worth arguing about at this stage? DP: As a transhumanist, I look forward to a glorious “triple S” civilisation of Superhappiness, Superlongevity and Superintelligence. But more concretely, I’d like to see a coordinated hundred-year Plan to overcome suffering throughout the living world under the auspices of the World Health Organization. Here are four policy proposals for a Biohappiness Revolution:
Accelerate the development and commercialisation of cultured meat. Close and outlaw factory-farms and slaughterhouses. Rehabilitate the surviving victims.
Genetically raise pain-tolerance. Genetically recalibrate the hedonic treadmill. Create life based on gradients of intelligent bliss.
Offer CRISPR gene-therapy and preimplantation genetic screening and counselling to all prospective parents.
Spread low-pain “happy genes” across the biosphere with CRISPR-based synthetic gene drives that cheat the “laws” of Mendelian inheritance.
At times, Darwinian life can be desperately grim. Yet depressive, pain-ridden people shouldn’t feel their lives are worthless. Even malaise-ridden lives can be valuable if one prevents more suffering than one undergoes. We should all aspire to be not just transhumanists but also effective altruists. Let’s use biotechnology to phase out suffering. Humans are stepping-stones to something better – something inconceivably sublime. IM: In 2015, Bill Gates gave a chilling warning on a TED Talk that the world was in danger due to global pandemics or bioterrorism. These predictions have raised conspiracy theories that Bill is responsible for creating the novel coronavirus and the reason for his interest in developing a vaccine treatment. There are also conspiracy theories circulating about 5G technology being connected to the spread of the novel coronavirus which has led to the recent burning of 5G towers in the UK. Conversations about the use of microchips and biometrics in order to prevent future epidemics are also fueling conspiracy paranoia. Are these fears reasonable? Do they serve an evolutionary purpose or detriment? DP: “Only the paranoid survive”, said Intel boss Andy Grove. There’s a lot that medical science still doesn’t understand about the pandemic viral respiratory illness COVID-19. However, the new corona virus was not created by Bill Gates, nor is it spread by 5G towers. Nor is it a bioweapon. The truth is more sinister. COVID-19 is a by-product of humanity’s monstrous treatment of nonhuman animals. Zoonotic disease and consequent global pandemics are inevitable as long as humans practise meat-eating. Animal abuse is catastrophic for humans and our victims. Details of the spillover infection in a dirty Wuhan meat market in November 2019 are still murky; but this viral pandemic would not have happened if humans didn’t practise animal agriculture – and then butcher sentient beings to gratify a gruesome taste for their flesh. Rather than being the villain of the piece, Bill Gates is a sponsor of “clean” cultured meat. The cultured meat revolution promises to end zoonotic pandemics, save billions of nonhuman and human animal lives, and yield cost-savings of tens of trillions of dollars by preventing future pandemics. Yet human health and safety needn’t wait for the commercialisation of cruelty-free cultured meat and animal products. Wet markets, vivisection labs, factory-farms and slaughterhouses are crimes against sentience; they should be outlawed. Future civilisation will be vegan. IM: Humanity’s self-sabotaging nature exists in many forms. One, in particular, a form of self-assertion by denying, ignoring, or attacking what others consider to be true - the fear of others - is as subtle and universal as it is destructive. This form of self-defense mechanism so prevalent in modern society prevents people from establishing effective communication channels that are all-encompassing, flexible, and effective, in particular towards problem-solving. Could humans ever turn mindfulness, gratitude, hope, and a sense of solidarity into sustainable practices? DP: Evolution didn’t “design” humans to be nice to each other – except insofar as friendliness promoted the inclusive fitness of their genes. Some transhumanists worry about the spectre of unfriendly artificial general intelligence; but our biggest challenge is creating sentience-friendly biological intelligence. Maybe the shock of COVID-19 will help persuade killer apes to close the death factories and accelerate an anti-speciesist revolution. Maybe the shock of COVID-19 will help persuade free-market fundamentalists that all people have a fundamental right to basic income, homes and healthcare. I’d love to believe that humans will “turn mindfulness, gratitude, hope and a sense of solidarity into sustainable practices”, as you suggest. But unless we combine dietary, political and socio-economic reform with remediation of our sinister source code, the well-being of all sentience remains a utopian dream. Depravity is hardwired into our DNA – a lot of it, at any rate. The worst of “human nature” must be genetically cured. IM:To establish a global pandemic immunity for the novel coronavirus, our priorities are: 1. to keep people safe from getting the coronavirus through social distancing, 2. to figure out a way to contact-trace and test millions of people a day to know who can resume working, 3. to come up with treatments and vaccinations that can prevent coronavirus flare-ups, in particular third world countries, 4. to continue travel restrictions and global collaboration, 5. to improve our supply chain and infrastructure. Do you think this plan is aligned with the transhumanist goal of improving the human condition? DP: Becoming transhuman will entail overcoming deeply-rooted ethnocentric and anthropocentric bias. COVID-19 has already triggered an upsurge in racism and xenophobia. Coronaviruses and future pathogens could be readily tamed with the aid of ubiquitous testing and tracking apps. But many people are (rightly) afraid that tracking measures introduced to tackle catastrophes like COVID-19 – biometric scanning, phone location data, credit-card information, security footage and so forth – will be used by authoritarian regimes to control rather than protect us. IM: The success of a global plan to turn the economy around towards the sustainable implementation of a universal health care system that can successfully handle crisis depends not only on improving our own neural architecture but on re-defining our value system. Professor Stefan Lorenz Sorgner, also a distinguished philosopher of posthuman studies from Cabo University, Italy, whom I'm also interviewing in this issue of Immoralists Magazine (See: “The Future Of Digital Surveillance and Healthcare - A Conversation with World Leading Philosopher Stefan Lorenz Sorgner” APR-MAY 2020), makes a bold argument stating that when it comes to health and privacy, the problem isn’t about giving up privacy, but our understanding of what privacy means to us. He argues that people aren’t afraid of giving up privacy, but being sanctioned by the government. We soon realize that the fear isn’t the loss of privacy but the inability to live as one pleases. Stefan believes that the collection of digital data by means of total surveillance is needed and can be established through mutually beneficial contracts where citizens give access to their biometrics to governments in exchange for a free health care system that keeps everyone safe and healthy. He adds, "in order to collect all the relevant data, the data needs to be sold in between the companies or the companies and the government." Do you think that a decentralized, non-commercial, peer-to-peer system would be more effective, or could we instead establish a hybrid system that restricts government and companies access to people's biometrics? DP: Let’s step back for a moment. Why exactly does privacy matter? The Borg has no concept of privacy. Many Christians believe that a benevolent and omniscient God is privy to their innermost thoughts and feelings. But we needn’t invoke science-fiction or theology. If mutually “loved up” on oxytocin-releasing euphoriant empathogens like MDMA (Ecstasy), people can forget about privacy and be honest with each other: oxytocin has been dubbed the “trust hormone”. More radically, the conjoined craniopagus twins Krista and Tatiana Hogan share a thalamic bridge. In a sense, they are distinct persons. But Krista and Tatiana can partially see though each other’s eyes and taste and feel what the other is experiencing. So in another sense, the twins can share a mind as well as a body. Maybe our transhuman successors will be able to “mind meld” via reversible thalamic bridges. If so, mind-melding technologies will inaugurate a revolution of true honesty – and (lack of) personal privacy – as understood by archaic Darwinian lifeforms. Science, morality and decision-theoretic rationality will be revolutionised too. By contrast, “normal” humans today are profoundly ignorant of each other. Moreover, most prefer to stay ignorant – and prefer others stay ignorant of them. For sure, humans want to feel loved, appreciated and respected. But we also want to prevent others from truly understanding us – as distinct from acknowledging our idealised public personae. Some of the reasons why contemporary humans want to preserve their privacy may be irrational – for example, embarrassment over bodies and their functions or a taste in porn. But the problem goes deeper. Social, personal and business life depends on a web of deceptions. If our dark, Darwinian minds practised “radical honesty”, then human society and personal relationships would collapse. Today, we have the justified suspicion that if other humans learned our secrets, they might exploit such knowledge to harm us. Anyhow, to answer your question more directly: if adequate safeguards can be established, then everyone’s mental and physical health would be best served by allowing medical authorities to have full genetic and biometric data for all citizens, ideally from birth if not conception. Later this century, universal access to preimplantation genetic screening and counselling and CRISPR genome-editing should be available for all prospective parents. Centralised genetic knowledge-banks available to medical researchers would promote public health and benefit individuals and society alike. However, the risks to personal freedom from sharing such knowledge are far-reaching. I will need to study Stefan Sorgner’s proposals properly before offering comment. But in my view, universal access to free healthcare, basic income and adequate housing shouldn’t depend on surrendering genetic privacy and other biometric details. Universal and unconditional access to healthcare, basic income and adequate housing is a precondition of any civilised society. One possible solution to the privacy dilemma may involve artificial intelligence. If implemented wisely, the practice of sharing intimate personal and biometric details with smart digital zombies won’t involve embarrassment or scope for human-style abuse. We’re already heading for a world of robo-carers, robo-nurses, robo-doctors and robo-surgeons: insentient robo-epidemiologists aren’t so different – not a Nanny State, but “Nanny AI”. But I believe this kind of AI option would need rolling out over decades. The devil is in the details. IM: Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and his wife Priscilla Chan are planning to partner up with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to begin exploring possible COVID-19 treatments. It is known that the Zuckerberg-Chan Initiative is also on a mission to “eliminate all diseases within our children’s lifetime”. How are super longevity initiatives relevant to our quest to establish a universal health care system and happiness? DP: Humanity needs a more ambitious conception of health – the kind of conception laid out in the founding constitution of the World Health Organization. I hope that we can indeed “eliminate all diseases within our children’s lifetime”. Yet even if all recognised genetic disorders and infections were eradicated, horrific suffering would persist in the world – all sorts of physical and mental pain. Under a regime of natural selection, a predisposition to suffering and discontent is genetically adaptive. So we wouldn’t really be healthy, just not sick. Our genomes need fixing. Hence the need for a biohappiness revolution – a civilised information-signalling system underpinned by gradients of intelligent bliss. Superlongevity? Only revolutionary medical breakthroughs can abolish death and aging. We don’t yet have the knowledge. Organs and bodies can be replaced, repaired and/or enhanced indefinitely with recognisable extensions of existing technologies; but the central nervous system is more challenging to re-engineer: I’m more pessimistic than some of my transhumanist colleagues about credible time-scales for eternally youthful mind-brains. Therefore we need a twin-track approach: SENS and Calico should work together with Alcor. Universal access to cryonics and cryothanasia could potentially make a transhumanist civilization available to all sentient beings – even the elderly and infirm for whom talk of posthuman paradise is apt to sound personally irrelevant. Hormonally, I’m one of Nature’s pessimists; but I think we are destined for a glorious “triple S” civilisation of superlongevity, superintelligence and superhappiness. IM: How does transhumanism address issues of racism and injustice? DP: The Transhumanist Declaration (1998, 2009) affirms our commitment to the well-being of all sentience. This goal sounds impossibly utopian. Consider just one form of injustice, economic inequality. Traditional routes to a fairer world involve “winners” and “losers”. Zero-sum games are endemic to human society. Worse, the enforcement mechanisms of greater fairness often turn out to be as bad - or worse - than the injustices they attempt to remedy. Consider the fate of socialist experiments of twentieth-century history. Transhuman society will be different. Information-based technology promises to erase traditional left-right distinctions by creating effectively unlimited abundance of anything that can be digitised – and that embraces almost everything. (Some transhumanists claim that everything can be digitised, but let’s postpone discussion of whether conscious minds are a classical phenomenon.) Digital information is egalitarian. Intellectual-property owners may blanch, but we can now take for granted that everyone can enjoy access to the world’s musical resources, electronic games, movies and computer software. This unfolding revolution will continue into an era of augmented reality and immersive VR. Most importantly, access to genetic information and mastery of our reward circuitry will soon be democratised. Code for the biological substrates of subjective well-being doesn’t need to be rationed any more than the source code of digital music needs to be rationed. We could all become hedonic trillionaires. Many of the world’s worst inequalities aren’t economic or socio-political, but biological-genetic: disparities of mood, motivation and hedonic range. Just consider who is better off: a rich, angst-ridden depressive or a poor, healthy hyperthymic? Transhumanism promises a civilisation based entirely on gradients of intelligent bliss. Potentially, everyone can be a hedonic “winner”. Yet what about tackling injustice now? In my view, universal basic income (UBI), decent housing and free healthcare shouldn’t be a political left-right issue, but a precondition of civilised society. Thus broadly libertarian transhumanists such as Zoltan Istvan support UBI no less than transhumanists in the left-liberal tradition. My own gut instincts have always favoured the underdog. But the neocortex is a more effective tool of cognition than the enteric nervous system. Rich and poor, black and white, human and nonhuman animals – we are all victims of our legacy wetware. Everyone will benefit when our Darwinian source code is fixed. Any prospective parent who believes that creating new life is ethically permissible should consider preimplantation genetic screening, counselling and (soon-to-be) professional gene-editing. Defeating racism? This really demands a treatise, but here goes. From antiquity to the present, dominant groups have convinced themselves they are intellectually, morally and spiritually superior to stigmatised outsiders – and touted “objective” measures to prove it. The evolutionary roots of racial discrimination, bigotry and xenophobia run deep. Everything from cultural stereotypes to the institutional racism in our criminal justice systems and even transgenerational epigenetic inheritance (i.e. transmission of epigenetic information through the germline) mean that the effects of systemic racism will take generations to overcome. Our posthuman successors may find the differences between human ethnic groups akin to the differences that humans discern between different dogs or mice or beetles. Yes, there are differences between different breeds of dog and mouse – and beetle! But humans can recognise that these differences are trivial compared to what all dogs, mice and beetles have in common. Likewise posthuman superintelligence vis-à-vis archaic humans. Education harnessed to intelligence-amplification can help overcome racist prejudice and other cognitive deficits of perspective-taking ability. But creating empathetic superintelligence will be a monumental challenge. IM: How can transhumanism positively affect policies that affect all sentient life? DP: A “triple S” civilisation of superintelligence, superlongevity and superhappiness can benefit all sentient beings. Everyone could benefit from “narrow” superintelligence on a neurochip; Neuralink is just a foretaste of tomorrow’s implantable brain-machine interfaces. Some doomsters fear a zombie coup from runaway software-based AGI; but all the benefits of “narrow” AGI can be incorporated within one’s own CNS. So transhumans will be supersapient and supersentient. Full-spectrum superintelligence will be us, not some fanciful zombie overlord. Transhumanism also offers a richer conception of intelligence than the narrow, “autistic” component of general intelligence measured by simple-minded IQ tests: enhanced social cognition, superior co-operative problem-solving skills, an expanding circle of compassion, and the tools to explore alien state-spaces of consciousness. Yet who will live long enough to enjoy triple-S civilisation? Unless you’re a hydra, you and your loved ones suffer from the lethal hereditary disease we call “aging”. Rejuvenating interventions such as regular therapeutic blood exchange can potentially turn back the biological clock. “Cyborgisation” and synthetic body parts will increasingly enhance, repair and replace biological organs. But full-blown body-replacement is still decades away. Therefore we need not just medico-genetic advances, but also a medico-legal revolution: opt-out cryonics and opt-in cryothanasia for life-loving oldsters. At its best, transhumanism is all-inclusive. Critically, the biohappiness revolution won’t be race- or species-specific. Transhumanists aspire to transcend ethnocentric and anthropocentric bias. Everyone can potentially benefit from genetically programmed well-being – a civilised signalling system to replace the dismal dial-settings of a Darwinian hedonic treadmill. There is a crying need for the World Health Organization to live up to its obligations as set out in its founding constitution. Good health should be the birthright of all sentient beings – or else they shouldn’t have been conceived in the first place. I’m personally gloomy about timescales for the abolitionist project. Centuries? Millennia? I don’t know. However, a hundred-year blueprint to eradicate suffering is technically feasible. The world’s last experience below hedonic zero will mark a major evolutionary transition in the development of life on Earth. My own focus is the plight of nonhuman animals – humble minds as sentient and sapient as small children and worthy of equivalent care. Currently, the abuse of nonhumans by humans is systematic. Factory-farming and slaughterhouses are nastier than even the most virulent racism and child abuse. Ideally, moral argument alone would suffice: I’d implore everyone to adopt a cruelty-free vegan lifestyle. But transhumanists are hard-headed. We tend to favour technical solutions to ethical problems. Cultured meat and cultured animal products once belonged to science fiction. Yet over the next few decades, the cultured meat revolution will end the horrors of animal agriculture. The death factories will close. The surviving victims will be rehabilitated. Zoonotic plagues like COVID-19 spawned by animal abuse like will pass into history. And looking further ahead, what Darwin’s grandfather Erasmus called “the great slaughterhouse of Nature” can be civilised too. The biohappiness revolution can be extended to the rest of the living world via genome editing, cross-species fertility-regulation and synthetic gene drives. The entire tree of life is programmable. For sure, pilot studies in self-contained mini-biospheres will be prudent. But post-Darwinian ecosystems won’t resemble today’s snuff movie. Post-Darwinian ecosystems will be engines of bliss. IM: What approach would you recommend for someone that intends to recalibrate their hedonic set-point and live "better than well" in a sustainable way in the current technological paradigm, before the democratization of gene-editing arrives, assuming that all the typical healthy habits (sleep, nutrition, exercise, meaningful social interactions) have been already maxed out? DP: Most people today have not “maxed out” their genetic potential. Optimising sleep, nutrition and exercise is more often preached than practised. Yet what about depressive people who done everything right and still aren’t happy? Maybe they have also tried nutritional supplements (omega-3 fatty acids, S-Adenosyl-L-Methionine (SAMe), St John’s wort, etc) and worked their way through the officially sanctioned mood-brighteners – “antidepressants” such as the SRRIs, MAOIs, tricyclics, bupropion and so forth. Meditation, cognitive-behavioural therapy and other non-biological interventions hasn’t produced lasting relief. Nothing works. The set-point of their hedonic treadmill is too simply low. It’s tragic. I’ve no easy answers to the hardest cases. One of the biggest challenges to pharmacological (as distinct from genetic) remediation and enhancement is that the neurotransmitter system most directly involved in hedonic tone is the opioid system. We are all born dysfunctional opioid addicts with cravings to fix. Alas, exogenous opioids have well-known pitfalls for users, their families and society at large. That said, there is still scope for creative psychopharmacology. For example, the “French” antidepressant tianeptine - a full mu and delta opioid receptor agonist – can be combined with a selective kappa opioid receptor antagonist. (Kappa agonists induce dysphoria.) Also, perhaps add the novel agent LIH383. LIH383 blocks the atypical “scavenger” opioid receptor ACKR3. Blockade of ACKR3 increases the availability of opioid peptides that can bind to classical CNS opioid receptors, thereby increasing their “natural” mood-brightening action. The negative-feedback mechanisms of the hedonic treadmill can be sabotaged. However, this kind of cocktail of creative psychopharmacology is best explored with the aid of a medical specialist. If all else fails, the modern equivalent of “wireheading” would work. Intracranial self-stimulation is not the transhumanist vision of paradise engineering: superintelligent life based on information-sensitive gradients of bliss. Wireheading is clearly a last resort. But no one should be forced to suffer: it’s unethical.Fortunately, future sentience will be blissful.
UK Betting and Gaming Statistics March 2019 About this release This National Statistics publication presents statistics from the seven different gambling regimes administered by HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC): General Betting Duty (GBD), Pool Betting Duty (PBD), Lottery Duty, Gaming Duty, Bingo Duty, Remote Gaming Duty (RGD), and Machine Games Duty (MGD). A more detailed description of each ... Alarming UK Gambling Statistics, Sports Betting Data & Research 2021. Last updated January 5th, 2021. We asked people in the UK aged 18-54 about their interest in watching sports, betting on sports, and playing casino games. Some of the results were expected, but other findings were alarming. It’s worth noting that we screened anyone that did matched betting or arbitrage betting to ensure ... UK Gambling Licensing Authority Statistics; GB Gambling Industry Statistics; Search. Search Find data Data links Link to the data Format File added Data preview; Download Survey-questionnaire , Format: PDF, Dataset: Gambling participation in 2019: behaviour, awareness and attitudes: PDF 28 May 2020 Not available: Download Gambling-participation-in-2019 online data , Format: XLS, Dataset ... Monthly statistics from the 7 different gambling regimes administered by HM Revenue and Customs. Published 31 October 2019 Last updated 30 October 2020 — see all updates Gambling and betting activities sector enterprises UK 2020, by turnover ; Annual sales of National Lottery in Great Britain 2008-2019; Available prize value from National Lottery in Great Britain ... • A total of 9,008 individuals were treated within gambling services (who report to Data Reporting Framework (DRF)) in Great Britain within 2019/20. • A large majority of clients (75%) were male. • Nine tenths (89%) were from a White ethnic background (Table 5), including 81% White British and 5% White European. Gambling industry statistics are published twice a year (in May and November) and provide the latest information on each industry sector we regulate, which includes online gambling services offered to customers in Great Britain. The statistics come from the data provided by licence holders through their regulatory returns. This report is useful for anyone who has a business interest in the ... Between 2016 and 2018 it rose steadily, but in 2019 it actually suffered something of a dip, falling from £5,355 million to £5,321 million, a decrease of six percent. Betting Gambling Gross Yield – up £442.03 million (15.7%) GGY Apr09-Mar10 £2,811.36 million – GGY Apr18-Mar19 £3,253.39 million Industry statistics If you have a question about your gambling, or the gambling of someone close to you, our FAQs from gambling consumers during lockdown may provide valuable information. Try the new Gambling Commission website we're working on, and give us feedback. The current disruption to the UK could impact some of our statistics, and accuracy may be affected due to lower sample sizes, or a reduced ability to offer demographic, regional or other breakdowns. In some cases, the production of some data series may need to be suspended and we may find advantages in using other data sources. Decisions on production and publication will be made on a case by ...
Gambling Addiction STOP the EASY way (...and why you should choose the HARD path to recovery)
If you’re trading without a statistically-proven strategy that provides edge, you're gambling, and as the saying goes; “There’s no such thing as a rich gambler”. + THANKS FOR WATCHING! Please LIKE the video, leave a COMMENT below, and SUBSCRIBE to the channel. + CONTENT: * Chris Cowlin previews the Southampton v Tottenham game in the Premier League # ... What happens inside the brain of a gambling addict when they make a bet - and can the secret to their addiction be found within the brain itself? BBC Panoram... Published on Jul 26, 2019. ... If you've had an issue with gambling in the past, or think you have a problem now, then use the links below to seek help. ... Gamstop is the new UK nationwide online ... Gamcare: 0808 8020 133 or GamCare.org.uk I hope this video was helpful. If you found it so then I would love it if you would subscribe and like the video to help me reach as many people as possible. From the statisticians forecasting sports scores to the intelligent bots beating human poker players, Adam Kucharski traces the scientific origins of the wor...
