There seems to be a lot of interest in stocks from young investors. I imagine that many will make their way from WSB to this sub because WSB is a bunch of monkeys flinging poo. You may have lost some money and now you want to explore stocks from less of a Meme and emotional perspective.
There is nothing wrong with Meme stocks. Meme stocks can be fun. I have had fun with it. I am also a 42-year-old man with rental properties, commercial properties, and a few small businesses. BB, NOK, AMC, and even GME are all fine. The DD is fine behind all of them. The issue is that if I lose $1,000 then I can write myself a check from one of my businesses for $10,000 to make myself feel better. That is not a brag...it is simply sharing that people come from different places in life.
You are just starting off life and probably have far fewer resources and every dollar matters more.
I challenge anyone to CMV but I am not a big proponent of stocks as a core investment strategy. Here are my reasons why.

1. Information has a time-decay of value. Meaning that information becomes less valuable over time. Data is what is mined to often produce new Information. You are at a disadvantage when it comes to both data and information. The information that you get on a retail level has already lost much of its value. This is where the saying "if you read it in the news you are already too late"
2. You have no power. You simply cannot compete with whales and whales don't become whales by letting people glean the crumbs that are leftover. They have the power to move markets, you don't.
3. You have no control over outcomes. You have no control over the success of a company. You have no control over other investors. You have no control over anything.
4. The odds on options are not that great. Even compared to blackjack our betting the outside of a roulette table they are just not that good.
5. Many people that are far more intelligent than you are, lose money at stock investing.
6. Your emotions and FOMO will be a hindrance and problematic.
7. Most stock investors are too young to understand the market cycles

I like stocks as a small part of an overall investment strategy for young people for the following reasons.

1. Time is valuable and you have the most time
2. Compound interest is the "force" behind all investing and compound interest compliments the stock market very well
3. Certain strategies can complement long-term wealth building

Building wealth through stocks is like trying to build a house one brick at a time...just you, and you are gathering the straw, digging the mud, and pressing each brick by hand. When it rains many of your bricks will wash away. If the sun shines for enough days then you will make good progress.
The problem is that all markets cycle. The housing market cycles. Petroleum and natural gas cycles. The stock market cycles. I believe that a full market cycle is around 18 years with around 7-12 years in an up cycle and 6-11 in a down cycle. In the stock market, they call these bull and bear markets. We are currently in one of the longest bull markets on record due to interest rates and the feds printing money. No one has a crystal ball but sooner or later the market will peak. When this happens Boomers will be the first to pull money out and put it into bonds or CDs. Boomers are as big of a whale as retail can get. Anyone and I mean anyone could have made money in the current market. If ten years ago you had asked a five-year-old to pick five of their favorite things and invested in their choices you would have made money. That could be Barbies, YouTube, Pizza, Sprite, and their Dog. They would have made money on any stocks you picked around those five things.
There will come a day sooner or later when Boomers and GenX will see trends in the market that they don't like. Boomers own multiple houses and are deep into retirement. GenX is a small but powerful generation that is now on the back Nine Holes of life. Gen X will largely inherit the wealth of the Boomers. There will come a shift towards mitigating losses and that shift is not far away. When they move their money from markets so goes the market.
Is it fair to say that one of the longest bull cycles on record could transition to one of the longest bear cycles?
Let's look at Millenials...a generation that is struggling to just buy a home. Boomers own a few. GenX may own a couple and Millenials that are now entering into their forties struggle with one. Millenials are a massively sized generation that I believe is now bigger than both GenX and Boomers combined because Boomers are dying at a rapid pace. Millenials are the generation that were adults starting life and careers in 2008 and full-blown families with Covid-19. Maybe one of the unluckiest generations.
GenZ is this very talented and intelligent generation. Y'all are creating disruptions in culture, in politics, and in Wall Street. You are savvy and demanding. Giving billionaires the finger while pissing on the front door of their mansions.
But you need to be careful.
Stocks are not the key to your success. They are just a single tool in your toolbox. A better tool may be early homeownership or owning a small business. Life is about options...and I am not talking about the gambling options of Wall Street. I am talking about the options of having equity in a home to adapt to economic swings. I am, talking about the options of owning a small business where your day to day decisions make you smarter and more valuable. Where you own assets that make you money. Most importantly you have control over your own destiny.
I am not telling you not to invest in stocks. I am just telling you that it should be a limited part of your overall strategy in life. Unless someone has been through two complete cycles of the stock markets then I would take their advice with a grain of salt.
General advice:

1. Don't sell stocks that you have taken a loss on
2. Buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying
3. Invest in stocks with a strategy based on your knowledge and experience
4. Invest only what you can afford to lose
5. Stocks work best with time. Leave them alone
6. Be a value investor
7. Invest with a purpose

Number seven is important. For example, I like Robotics, AI, and Automation. I like these is two specific areas....transportation and mining. I operate in the Transportation industry. I know that very soon human drivers will be eliminated and self-driving trucks will take over. Trucks will be loaded, driven, and unloaded without a single human being doing any of that work. With that will come an entire supporting industry. Tow trucks will need to be automatically dispatched when trucks break down or in accidents. AI will need to be involved in decision making. I will see these changes before I am dead and I am 42.
I like underwater mining. Our oceans are the next frontier and the next gold rush. We have areas of sea bottom that has very little life but is rich in gasses, minerals, and thermal energy. Automation, AI, and robotics will play a huge role in underwater mining. I will see this transition start in my lifetime and I am 42.
Beyond that, once we have machines that are capable of underwater mining then we have the basics for machines that can mine inner-system planetary objects. From nearby asteroids to the moon, to thermal energy collection closer to the sun, to Mars and beyond. The wealthiest person in existence will be the person that is able to start the first off-planet mining operation. Where there is no EPA, no taxes on land, where we are not building sub-divisions next to mines. Where we don't have to worry about the ecosystem. Where gasses and pollutants are not pollutants because there is nothing of consequence to pollute. The largest land-owners in existence will be the owner of off-world mining operations. That may not happen in my lifetime...but it may in yours.
I like investing in Meme stocks because they are fun. But I also invest in Robotics, AI, and automation with one-single question....is this company taking humanity one-step close to automated transportation or underwater mining? I invest with a purpose.
Sure I will grab up some value stocks every now and then. People are going to be flying more than ever in a few years. People are going to be more social than ever in a few years. Shoot Condom manufacturers are a buy right now because people will be..........you get the idea.
The whole reason that I wrote this excessively long post is to maybe get you into thinking about your strategy....what is it? And to caution you on being "all-in" on stocks.
Stonks don't always go up.

Hello everyone! I have only been on Reddit for a few months but I learned so much from it that I figured I should try and give back to the community. English is my second language and this is the first time I ever write a full-length article, I hope you will enjoy reading it and I would be very thankful if you could provide some feedback about my writing, about the topic, or about anything else really… So here goes!
Why you should learn poker and game theory:
My story is similar to that of many: I learned about the game 10 years ago (during the golden age of online poker) when some friends of mine invited me to play a home game. Although I initially thought of poker as just another game of chance akin to playing slots or roulette in a casino, I quickly came to realize that there is a lot more to it as my more experienced friends would repeatedly get the best of me during these home games, which led me to start watching videos and reading strategy books to improve my skill… Little did I know it’d be the start of a journey that would impact many different aspects of my life way beyond the game itself, as most of the fundamental principles learned through poker can be applied to your decision-making outside of the game, especially when it comes to money management and investing. Now, let’s dive into a few of these principles:
​
- Risk management (i.e. Bankroll management)
When learning about how to be successful playing poker, the first big piece of advice most people come across is bankroll management or BRM. To understand BRM, you must first realize that poker has a lot of variance: you might be vastly ahead in a given hand but there is almost always a slim chance that you will lose in the end if one specific card hits. This implies that you will sometimes lose even though you were a 99% favorite, and that you will sometimes get unlucky and lose 2, 5 or maybe even 20 such encounters in a row. THIS is variance. It doesn’t mean that you played bad or that you made bad decisions, but rather that you got unlucky. Over time you will have lucky streaks and unlucky streaks, and these will average out in the long term… It’s just the way the game goes.
Now that we understand variance, let’s get back to BRM. What is it exactly? Let’s say you are the best poker player in the world but you only have 1000$ that you can EVER use to play with. Taking your whole 1000$ on one table and multiplying your stack at an exponential rate might seem like a good idea. Surely nothing can go wrong since you’re the best player in the world right? But variance can be a bitch ;) Even if you’re the best you will lose regularly and you will sometimes get unlucky, it’s just part of the game. The correct move here is to apply BRM, which means only using a small % of your available capital for each game you play in order to reduce the risk of going broke. Using only 100$ per game would already be a lot safer, but you still run the risk of going under on a streak of bad luck. If you only allocate 10$ per game you play, then it becomes virtually impossible for you to ever go broke, even on a huge streak of bad luck. Sure it’s not as exciting and you won’t be making money quite as fast as you could, but this is the way to go to make sure you don’t go broke…
This approach to risk management translates very well to investing:
- Only invest what you can afford to lose. Once the money is on the table it’s as good as gone, which is why you should only use your “spare” cash and never invest with your living expenses or worse, borrow money to invest.
- Diversify your investments. There is always a chance, however slim it might be, that you will lose most of your investment. This is why going all-in on a specific investment is generally a bad idea (this applies particularly well in the crypto space).
Proper BRM allows you to make sure that you will come out ahead in the long run if you play well, which basically comes down to making more good decisions than bad ones. But that’s assuming you don’t let emotions come in the way of your decision-making, which brings us to our next point…
​
- Emotional management (i.e. Handling tilt/Positive mindset)
Nobody likes losing… In the same way we enjoy winning because of the dopamine rush, we feel bad when we lose which is totally natural. Overcoming this and avoiding tilt (irrational decisions made out of angefrustration) is an essential skill for any successful poker player. You might play a sound game of poker and apply good BRM, but you will still lose if you let your emotions get the best of you.
After a loss, rather than being angry and frustrated, you should evaluate your decision-making. If your decision-making was good, you just got unlucky and you shouldn’t worry about it since you are playing for the long run (remember that variance teaches us that anything can happen in the short-term). If your decision-making was bad, you need to learn from your mistakes and move on. The key here is to always have a positive mindset: making mistakes is part of the learning process and should be seen as an occasion to improve. Being angry and ranting, on the other hand, rarely result in anything positive.
Again, this translates very well to investing:
- Don’t be impulsive, don’t let your emotions cloud your judgment. You should not FOMO because the price is pumping, nor should you sell because of FUD or price corrections. If you believe in a project, short-term price changes (did I hear someone say “variance”?) shouldn’t bother you.
- Don’t get stuck up on losses. You bought the top and it crashed immediately after? You sold the bottom right before a huge rally? Don’t let this bother you: what’s done is done and you just need to move on and make the best of your current situation.
- Have a positive mindset. Anger and frustration lead to nothing. Yes you could have bought in 2009 when you first heard about it, hindsight is always 20/20. Stay positive and keep learning/improving yourself.
The good thing about all this is that it goes way beyond poker or investing. Being aware of your emotions and how they affect you, learning how to handle losing even when you were “supposed” to win, etc… All this can tremendously help you in all aspects of life by making you less impulsive and more rational in your decision-making. Now, this leaves us with our last fundamental principle of a sound poker strategy:
​
- Basic stats and probabilities (i.e. Expected value/Odds)
To become an accomplished player, you will inevitably have to learn about these simple mathematical tools that poker players use all the time in their decision-making process, such as odds and expected value. To make it very simple, the expected value (EV) of any bet is (REWARD \ WinRate - RISK), meaning that if you can bet 1000$ with a chance to win 10k$ half of the time, your EV is *(10000\0.5)-1000 = +4000$**. Obviously these are great odds to take as long as you have enough capital to overcome variance. But things would be very different if the odds of winning were only 5% as your EV would then be negative *(10000\0.05)-1000 = -500$.*** Now this is clearly a bet you should not take…
Now that you know probabilities, statistics and game theory are useful decision-making tools in poker, guess what? They are also extremely useful in investing! Even better, the study of game theory with problems such as the “Byzantine generals” or the “Three prisoners” has been, along with cryptography, the foundation on which blockchain technology was built, enabling the trustless and decentralized services that are about to revolutionize our world…
Assuming this was enough to pique your interest and make you want to dig deeper, I’ll just add that just like the other topics we discussed and as you might have guessed, this translates very well to investing and also to pretty much anything in your life:
- Learn how to break down complex situations. Logical thinking paired with a statistical approach will help you break down any complex problem into several easier problems, making the whole thing a lot easier to approach/comprehend.
- Base your decisions on a methodical and rational approach. List every possible outcome along with its associated upside/downside, estimate the probability of each outcome to occur and make the best decision based on the information available.
My point here is that risk management, emotional management and statistics/game theory are all awesome tools that you should definitely add to your arsenal. Not only will it improve your money-management and investing, it will also be beneficial to your decision-making and to your life in general. Of course poker is not the only way to learn about these, but I personally found it to be the best practice ground to refine and improve them, which is why I strongly encourage you all to try it out and study the game.
I hope you enjoyed the article, and I wish you all a happy 2021 bull run! May we all come closer to retirement and financial independence!
​
TL;DR: more than a game, poker is a school of thought. It teaches you to be reasonable, to assess the risk of every single choice you make, to overcome you emotions, to play the long game rather than the short game, to make informed decisions, etc… This has made me a lot wiser in every aspect of my life, which is why I strongly encourage to try it out and read about poker strategy.

Yeah, I know, another fucking EV. Big whoop. We all know combustion engines are going the way of the rotary phone, what makes this any different from TSLA, NIO, WKHS, BLNK, or even GM and F?
Two words: Outlets and Segway.
​

Part I: The Market

Ayro is an EV with an economic moat. Ever consider why half of the EV plays are for charging stations? It's because these things need a lot of juice, and it's hard to get filled fast. Nio admittedly has a creative approach, but the additional batteries that need to be produced to functionally expand their business model is doomed when they try to scale up. We all know battery metals are in high demand, and they do not have a solution to this problem. And while the many new, competing charging stations plays may yield some much-needed supply for rapid charging on-the-go, there is a whole gigantic market for EV use that doesn't require this constant full-refueling, and just needs a more convenient down-payment cost.
​
If anything came from the slow-motion train wreck that was Nikola, it was an awareness for the potential of EV to disrupt the shipping industry. Couple near-zero fuel costs with quick-developing self-driving tech, and we're looking at a future where Amazon could basically offer free delivery. The only problem is, logistically, a network of EVs doing autonomous delivery is going to require a fuckton of cars. You can't have massive eighteen-wheel semis rolling down fifth avenue or up to college campus dorms all day, even with hydrogen fuel cells; the amount of cash you would have to come up with just as down payment on the trucks alone would be prohibitively expensive.
​
So what does that mean? It means we need last minute delivery. The people who drive the actual vans from the Amazon warehouse to you door? That's the market we're looking at here. And I know you just shuddered at the idea of counter playing the largest business in the world, but that's the beauty of this whole thing: we aren't counter-playing the future of driverless delivery, we're supplying it. There's going to be another Nikola eventually, someone who figures it out properly, and the shipping industry is going to change overnight. Warehouses will be emptied and filled so efficiently that the demand will be on getting from the Warehouse to people's homes. Opinion: The amount of money it will cost for a fleet of EV pick-up trucks/vans, and the amount of time it will take to charge given projections by any of the major charging station plays, cannot compete with the cost and efficiency of Ayro 411 type micro-trucks.
​

Part II: The Product

What the fuck is a 411 micro truck? It's the god-damn future, that's what. The 411 is a light-duty EV made by Club Car. Yes, Club Car, the golf cart company. The company that has produced small scale electric vehicles for recreational and short distance transport since Nineteen-Fifty-Eight. If you come across any number of bot articles entitled "AYRO is a classic pump-and-dump," just remember they're partnered with the longest-standing, most consistently profitable EV company in the world.
​
The Ayro 411 is a miniature truck that can be configured as a flat bed, pick-up, or covered van during the purchase process. There are a number of additional customization upgrades, and the process feels quite akin to purchasing a Tesla Model 3. They cost about $30,000, a price tag that will only be going down as of their completion of a new factory in Texas and a new contract with Karma Automotive to produce 20,000 units over the next three years.
​
So what?
So here's what: the 411 charges on a three prong outlet. No, I'm not fucking joking. This is a truck, a 35 mph, street legal delivery vehicle that requires $0 of additional costs to function. Buy it, plug it in, drive it around. You can't go very far and you can't go very fast but guess what? Ayro doesn't give a fuck! Because that market is already dominated by Tesla, who are years ahead of a dozen other solid competitors. None of them can compete in the short-distance space. The upfront costs of their batteries and recharge stations are too much for the margins of what we're dealing in here. Tesla is only profitable right now because of EV credits; when those dry up, investors better pray they made sufficient preparations to pivot into the solar market with a stiff arm.
​
But the best part is, because Ayro doesn't compete with Tesla, their success is Ayro's. Consider Tesla's own semi play: if they produced the Hydrogen fuel cell behemoth Nikola promised, someone has to come up with a fleet of last minute delivery at some point. Amazon could do it, but guess what? All their vehicles are still combustion. That will only become less profitable (if not outright banned) in the next 10 years or so. Who will be available? Ayro, with customizable 411s. Tag on the inevitable advent of universally applicable self-driving tech, and you have the future of logistics.
​
Even without the delivery angle, these things could be massive on college campuses, at vacation resorts, or in large indoor complexes for such as sporting arenas or exposition centers. Anywhere people use a golf cart to get around now, they could be using an Ayro truck that is probably better suited for the task (except maybe an actual golf course). These could also become a boon for the ride-sharing industry, where fuel costs account for a sizeable loss of profit-margin right now.
Side note: did I mention the 411 has a food-cart model? It's made by Gallery, and it's fucking lit. This will change the game for food trucks, mark my words. Once they figure out how to get one of these bad boys with a stove on it, Ayro is going to blow up all over foodies social media, and its gonna be the new hot thing. "Micro-electric van life" influencers will surely abound. Loathsome, I know, but at least we'll get fucking rich, right?
​

Part III: The Business

Alright, u/y_u_no_mek, I'll admit I'm intrigued. But why should I trust you, a random redditor, with my precious tendies?
You shouldn't. I'm not a financial advisor. I barely have a college degree, more like an adult preschool certificate. But you know who you should trust? Rod "The Iron Cock" Keller, Ayro's CEO and guywhofucks in chief.
If you aren't familiar, in 2012 Big Rod K was already a former VP at Toshiba, Siemans, then DirecTV, before taking over as president of a then little-known and oft-ridiculed company making nifty electric transportation gadgets. Some idiots said they were the future and most people thought they looked pretty fucking stupid. Fast forward three years, and The Rod of God had turned his company into a staple of city-tourism the world over. That company? Segway. What happened to Segway under Rod Keller? It became the largest personal transport vehicle company in the world. Yeah, it's creative semantics. but guess what? He made everyone a shit ton of money. He took one of the stupidest brands/products I can think of, and made it not only profitable, but popular. This isn't an idea that should have failed, it's an idea that DID fail as soon as Keller left the company. Segway may not be the same ballpark as a proper EV, but it is at very least a testament to the man's ability to lead and grow a business. Rock-the-Stock Rod has over 25 years of experience as a tech executive- If you don't trust me, trust him.
The Club Car and Karma Automotive contracts also speak volumes for Ayro's capacity as a serious player, especially in a market where most "competitors" (who are really no threat, as we've established) are brand new startups run by over-eager, over-exuberant leadership with little-to-no experience in a budding sector (See: Nikola).
Which brings me to my penultimate point: Ayro's fundamentals. Yes, they have struggled to turn over strong profit margins in the last few quarters, and even posted some losses as recently as a year ago. But guess what? They have eight quarters of cash to burn. You don't come across that kind of cash-on-hand in the startup space right now, especially not for a company that is aggressively expanding production capacity. You know what I think? I think $AYRO stock is getting hammered by AI traders who see that low profit margin and think "this thing is a load of shit," without realizing that the source of the expense is largely investment in future profits. The company isn't old enough to get us a good sense of their ROCI, but I would venture to guess this next fiscal year will do very well for Rod "the killer" Keller and his three-pronged magic bus.
​

Part IV: The Stonk

Well if you read Lily's blog, you already know the stock market has nothing to do with fundamentals. So what do we know about $AYRO as an options derivative? Well, for one thing it already has fairly massive short interest for a low volume, a metric which will start drawing a lot more attention in the wake of #gamestonk. But more important than that, Ayro is just straight-up undervalued as an EV. EVEN IF the whole EV sector is one giant bubble, the worst of the worst bear case, Ayro can drop at most $7/share. The upside? Fucking massive. I don't know how the rest of you feel about roulette, but I prefer $5 on on 36 to $150 on black. Every EV has the potential to lose massive market cap right now (including Tesla), but the potential upside for Ayro hasn't been limited by runaway speculation quite yet. Compare, for instance, Ayro, Nio, and Tesla.
​
Nio MC: $89 Billion
Limits: Requires huge scale of battery production
​
Fisker MC: $4 Billion
Limits: scale and batteries; market dilution, distance, recharge solutions
​
Workhorse MC: $5 Billion
Limits: scale, market dilution, debts, recharge solutions
​
Tesla MC: $807 Billion
Limits: Long/expensive recharge solutions, implementation of recharge infrastructure, impractical at short-distance scale
​
Ayro MC: ^{$209 Million}
Limits: Surge protector
​
​
Wait did you say millio-

$209 MMMMMMILLION

That's right, Ayro has a market cap of 0.2% of Nio.
​
​
Stop. Take a deep breath. Look at yourself in the mirror. If you could pay $20 or 2 Cents for a bet with a similar payout, which would you take? Neither has shifty leadership. Both have strong growth potential. But one is limited by physical metal in the ground and the other is a functional product. I know which I would take.
​
​
TL;DR
Ayro is a beautiful, highly undervalued growth play with fundamentals that would make Warren Buffet himself shed tears of pure value-investor ichor. Short distance, standard outlet charging tech means it does not compete with Tesla, Nio, Fisker, or any other EV play. Solid, experienced leadership means the company has good financial sense. Market cap is wildly undervalued, even in the face of a potential EV bubble.

We like the stock

Obligatory holdings: 777 shares picked up @3.28 (Initially had 1000, sold off a few around $8.00) Purchased 4 Calls @12.50 exp Jan 21, 2022 Sold 2 Puts at 2.50 exp 1/21/2023 Sold 7 Calls @17.50 exp 5/21
EDIT: Today was crazy. I had a feeling this was coming, I just didn't think it would be this soon. I believe the stock still has plenty of room to run, so I will be holding for a while longer. Bought more shares at the start of the morning to being my total to 1000; sold 3 more calls @17.50 5/21 exp. (my whole position). Will most likely exercise my 12.50 calls if we hit that high, then turn around and sell those calls around $30. Hopefully free premium monies. Will update this thread if there are any major price changes/news updates

English is not my native language but I wasn't going to study in Spanish, as all my IT knowledge is in English. For me, the Spanish version has weird definitions.
My experience (Long text alert):
Prior sitting the first attempt, I read the Sybex Official Book 8th Edition (Mike Chapple, Darril Gibson) three times, read Sunflower refresher and did a lot of googling, wikipedia, Pocket Prep (I found it too basic) also Wiley's bank (I have the CISSP questions book but it's still new). Learned the technicals concepts but didn't make sure to learn the managerial processes, e.g. Risk management, BCP, BIA, Pentesting, Vulnerability Assessment, SDLC, Testing, and all the other processes. For us IT people with only technical background, we don't focus much in engraving processes into our brains, we tend to learn more the technical terms, numbers (ports), etc. Fatal error! Made me fail the exam at 150Q. I was butthurt for 3 days (emotional pain), but it made me respect CISSP even more.
For the second attempt, I grabbed How to Think Like a Manager by Luke Ahmed, you can read it in one day and will help you diseminate the questions and choose the best answer. Kelly Handergan also says in her popular video "Why you will pass the CISSP exam": You're an advisor this is HUGE. Don't do anything. Just advise. Also the "most secure" option is not so obvious. You're a business advisor. Too secure means losing money or losing resources in opportunity. You need this mindset. The exam will ask you questions you have never read about and you will be 100% sure you will fail. You need to use Common sense. We know the rule to truly understand the question, read word by word, you might think you know the answer already but there are sometimes a tricky word in the question sentence that might change the whole correct answer.
What helped me a lot was the Android app called "CISSP test free 2021", it has tough questions and for my experience it was what helped me the most, it has a lot of non-technical questions. You can pay a very small fee for removing its ads. Extremelly underrated.
iOS: Here.
Also Wentz Wu's Question of the day. https://wentzwu.com/category/qotd/page/51 He has VERY difficult and tricky questions (more than the exam itself) so it will help you overprepare the exam by a lot. Extremelly underrated.
Skillset has a full course in YT which you can do in 2-3 days in 1,5 speed. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_SAXriJ73uF2l8d55G6mEA/playlists It goes straight to the point, no b.s. talk and made me FINALLY understand weird concepts I struggle to understand with the book. This course is almost never mentioned here and I found it extremelly underrated.
Also watched through the Destination Certification videos. Also recommend them watching as they will give some angles, mnemonics or ways to understand weird concepts you struggle understanding and super useful as refresher. You won't take over 2 days to watch them in 1.5x
Kelly's Why you will pass CISSP we all know about is also a must. The most important message for me: "You're an advisor".
Also the Discord channel is full of people extremelly helpful if you have any confusion.
The exam taking experience was odd. Drank an energy drink and some candies prior and started with easy questions then the nightmare came around. I was sure I was going to fail, I ended up choosing answers by roulette or The least illogical possible answer. Made sure to do it hastily in case I went through the 150Q.
After question 100Q I was relaxed but 100% sure I failed. Then the exam ended. I was previously prepared to hear the bad news and preparing for taking it again April (2 months grace). Poker-faced proctor hands me the envelope I open right in the moment and read the words "Congratulations". I wasn't excited. I facepalmed in shock and couldn't believe it. Still relaxed and full adrenaline, knowingly I just entered in a new chapter I told the proctor "You don't understand what this mean to me" She told me she has seen everything, crying people etc. We had a nice chat for 10 minutes about how important this was to me. Throughout the day I was relaxed, still in shock, never felt to excited. It took me two days to actually start accepting I passed the CISSP exam. What's odd I came home and started playing some games, watching entertainment videos, etc and was odd not to feel I was wasting time. The burden in my shoulders wasn't there though I still psychologically felt it was still there. I started studying for CISM for a while then I stopped. Oof, these long months of hard-studying finally ended and I will be promoted in my job. The hard work is finally paying off.
Aside from the technicals, know who is responsible for things, who does what, know the processes etc.
Thank you all!

Hey, it’s Coooolin!!! It’s Tuuesdayy! Terrific Tuesdaayy! Was it one for you though?! Tell me about your day, I’m interested! What did you do!? Let me know, doown beloow!!!
Here’s the new cards for today, thanks EA!

Silver Master Icons

Howie Morenz - 91 OVR - MTL / C - DIS² , PP²
Mats Sundin - 91 OVR - TOR / C - DIS² , T²
Scott Niedermayer - 91 OVR - NJD / LD - BAL² , SPE²
These require 9 Icon Collects — 6 if you have 88 OVR Scott Niedermayer
—

Fantasy Hockey Upgrades

Sean Couturier 93 OVR - UT
Req. - Base Ivan Provorov , and Philippe Myers + 2 Gold Collects
Mark Stone 93 OVR - UT
Req. - Base Alec Martinez , Shea Theodore + 2 Gold Collects
Cale Makar 92 OVR - UT
Req. - Base Gabriel Landeskog + 1 Gold Collect
Brock Boeser 91 OVR - UT
Req. - Base Braden Holtby + 1 Gold Collect ... - wow I look dumb getting Vancouver guys
—-

Primetimes

(More to come , will update)

NHL

Leon Draisaitl - 95 OVR - EDM / C - LTL¹ , GLA¹
Antemi Panarin - 93 OVR - NYR / LW - PP¹ , MAG¹
Jeff Petry - 89 OVR - MTL / RD - HOW¹ , SH¹
Jamie Benn - 88 OVR - DAL / LW - WM¹ , WH¹
Brandon Carlo - 86 OVR - BOS / C - SH¹ , GLA¹
Joel Farabee - 83 OVR - PHI / LW - SPE¹ , T¹
Miles Wood - 83 OVR - NJD / LW - LTL¹ , WM¹
Yanni - 83 OVR - TBL / C - PP¹ , MAG¹ ... do you hear yanni or laurel
Artturi Lehkonen - 81 OVR - MTL / LW - HOW¹ , WH¹
Chris Driedger - 79 OVR - FLA / G - 6’4” / 208 lbs - BAR¹ , SPA¹
Michael Mcleod - 78 OVR - NJD / C -DIS¹ , GLA¹
Philipp Kurashev - 78 OVR - CHI / C - BAL¹ , HOW¹
Yakov Trenin - 78 OVR - NAS / C - DIS¹ , T¹

Other Leagues

Matt Moulson - 80 OVR - BEA / LW - H and S¹ , PP¹ ... this man was a GOAT
Miguël Tourigny - 79 OVR - ARM / RD - SWA¹ , SPE¹
Francesco Pinelli - 78 OVR - RAN / C - SPA¹ , LTL¹
Connor Roulette - 78 OVR - TBIR / LW - H and S¹ , MAG¹
Semyon Der- - 78 OVR - PET / C - BAR¹ , WM¹
• • • • • • • • • • - - - - - - - - - • • • • • • • • • • • •

Packs Available

23H / 40M remaining
Ultimate Choice Pack
and
• Elite Players Pack - 37.5k C / 750 P
10 items , all Gold Players, with at least 8 80+ OVR Players
• Elite Pack - 25k C / 500 P
10 items, with at least 5 80+ OVR Players
• Prime Pack - 10k C / 200 P
10 items , at least 5 Players with at least 3 Gold Players and 2 NHL Players

P.S.

• Rivals Resets Today — 5pm EST
• Silver Master Upgrade for Howie Morenz, Scott Niedyy, and Matss Sundinn!

Hockey News Today

• Today in Hockey History
• NHL Rumours

Stock Market News

• Stock Market Rises
• AMC and GME update

Other News

• Willie sees his shadow
• Today’s Horoscope
——————

What’s to Come?

• SB Season Reset - Wednesday at 5pm EST
• Rivals Rewards - Wednesday at 5pm EST
• HUT Champ Rewards - Wednesday at 6am EST
• SB Rewards !! - Thursday at 5pm EST
• More Event Cards!! - Friday at 5pm EST
—————

Summary of the day

Quick Read
Best Forward of the Day - PT - is LEOONN DRAAIISAITLL OVR 95 with the syn LIIGHTTT THE LAAMPP and GLAADIIATORR
Best Defence of the Day - PT - is JEFFFF PETRRRYY OVR 89 with the syn SHUUTT DOWNN and HOWIITZZERRR
• Rivals Resets Today - where did you place?
———— —— ———

Important Notice

Make today the best day ever. Do something you wanted to do for a very long time. - within rules / legally - . You never know if tomorrow is blessed for you or not. Never take it for granted - its a blessing! Do something today that makes you feel way out of your comfort zone — because when you get out of your comfort zone, you’ll be super happy you did!

Interested in Stocks?

EA’s Stock Price, after hours - Feb 2
$ 141.81 (usd) —- Currency Converter
we looked at the stock at $137.54 usd
—— That is a difference of ( $4.27 / 3.10% ) —
You can listen to EA’s Conference Call here
Disclaimer - I am not a financial advisor. It is your money, please do your own due diligence. I am not responsible for your money. This is *not** advice. I added this section for an added educational purposes only. Thanks*
—— —— —— —-

NEED A SOUNDTRACK TO LISTEN TO?

• I made this for everyone. I’ll update it whenever I feel like it, but its been often!

DO YOU GUYS LIKE THE PLAYLIST?! For those not listening; How are you not listening to this playlist already!?
Comment songs to add, and please give feedback! It’s much appreciated!!
I currently have “Smells Like Teen Spirit” by “Nirvana” stuck in my head.... which you can play, recently added to the playlist!
Sidenote - How do you guys like the playlist!? I have a friend who makes music...and I really want to surprise him with some new people listening to his music... if you wanna help me, please click Here!! it would mean a lot to me!!
———-

Sites To Bookmark!

If you click here you will be redirected to bilasport. Bilasport is the best Online Streaming site for your entertainment needs for all sports! (Not affiliated)
A great streaming source recommended by NHLStreams is SurgeSport. Click on Hockey and you’ll be good to go!
Want to make your dream team, and show others what you’ve been working on, and much more? I will redirect you HERE!.
Here’s a helpful pack guide for you! Click!
Want to know how the market is holding up? With a simple TAP! you will be on the newly fresh made website for the HUT market, made by one of the guys on the sub!
.... what do the stats on a card mean? Is my card I want / pulled good? Click here to find out!!
When is my favourite team playing? When do they play!? Here you can click on this link, and tap on your favourite team. From there, tap “Schedule” . You can add this to your homescreen on iPhone by clicking the square with the upwards arrow, scrolling down, and tapping “Add to Home Screen”
——- —— —— —— —— —— —— —— —- —— —-

Fighting a Gambling Addiction?

Don’t feel scared to click here. Winning is SO much louder than losing. Know that you are NEVER alone. We are all here for eachother, and it is never too late to get help. I am here for you.
This is a VERY important thread, especially if you are new to HUT. Here!
——-
33 / 365
—— —— —— —- —- ——- —- —— ——
Thanks for reading.
I’m always welcome to feedback, please let me know what I can improve on.
If there’s anything missing, please let me know!
Take care, happy gaming! TODAY IS GROUNDHOG DAY!
• Coolin Killin It
(Life is like a puzzle, you just have to find the right piece.)

I was asked to make a post about some stories within the Casino grounds so I thought I'd share. I have many so I'll do my best to pick the better ones.
Some back information: I've been a Casino Dealer for 11 years, I've been a supervisor for five years, and I've been a Surveillance Operator for one year. I've worked at three properties, none of which are connected or owned by the same company. I've worked on : Government/Private/Native American owned casinos.

1. From Hero to Zero.

At my first Casino, I was one of the first group of people who were trained to deal Roulette . After 4 weeks of working 6PM-3AM then doing roulette training from 3AM-8AM (Not paid) , I actually really enjoyed the game and after about six months I became extremely quick at the number game and the pace of the action was steady with very low margin of errors. Young man walks in, cashes in for $500. He buys in for $2 chips and just loads the board. After a few spins and pretty decent hits, he then changes his chips from $2 to 5$ then to $10 and racks his winnings up to $10,000. It was then, five spins in a row, he loaded the board with some pretty gross bets, and every spin I would hit the ONE number with either NO CHIPS on it, or maybe 1 chip , He lost all $10,000 in a matter of minutes. He leaves , and I go on break. After my break I was going back to the same table and wouldn't you know it, the same young man walks in and cashes in another $500. He tells me he just sold his car outside and this is all that he had left. So we do the same deal, buys in for $2 chips, then slowly starts betting $5 chips, $10, $25...and he makes $10,000 AGAIN. Within the next 25 minutes it was straight agony. Every spin, same thing, he would bet $2500 in chips, and win only $250, $400, and after about a half hour he lost it all . Never saw the guy again.
2) Man down
At this property, we are 24 hours for table games. It's currently 5AM , and I'm dealing some $25 Blackjack to this guy. He's probably early thirties , heavy guy. He's sober as can be, but right away I can tell he's been losing. We know how much you've bought in for, how much your down, or up, and I could see he was down $2000+. After about twenty minutes of pure losing, his temper starts to flare.At this point I now have two other guests at my table. Drinking coffee, not saying a word, just losing their money. After losing hand, after hand, this guy looks me straight in the eye, seized up, starts shaking, he can't move. He tries to punch towards me and smashes his stack of chips all over the place and falls backwards to the floor. I call for security, we cannot touch him due to liability . I can't move from my table because, well, liability / casino cash property, all I can do is try to talk to him. As I'm doing so, these other two woman who are sitting at my table just look at me and one says "OK, dealer, cmon lets go " as she taps the table telling me to start dealing and forget about the guy having a stroke on the floor. As security takes him to the ambulance out front, I had to stay behind for a couple minutes and give a statement. I go on break. I come back, and 45 minutes later, he comes right back in with a oxygen tank and keeps gambling for the remainder of the morning.
3) You get a dildo, and YOU get a dildo!
On a late summer Saturday night, we had a large event for these massive muscle guys/strongman competition type thing. After their show, I'm at the roulette table , and five of these boys come over to play. They were absolutely hilarious. They were feeling pretty good, cashed in somewhat large amounts and I could tell this was going to be a fun time. After about a hour of dealing to these guys, it's almost midnight, everybody is pretty hammered , I spin the ball, and all five of these guys take out these god damn (what I can only tell was) two feet purple dildos from inside their pants, and wiping them around in the air. The ladies were just loving it, one of the dildos landed in the roulette wheel and we had to shut the table down to re-calibrate the wheel to make sure nothing had been changed. I just remember that night was so much damn fun, I couldn't believe what I was seeing and I would never forget it.
4) Full Moon
On this day, I was actually training dealers / supervising them on small games like Three Card poker. We opened the table at 10AM, and this older man came and sat down . He played all day. The jackpot was $21,000 and that was pretty high for this table. He played, and played and played. He's one of the players where you know he's wearing a diaper because he's been drinking coffee/pop all day and hasn't moved in eight hours. As the day went on, this man never moved from his chair. Getting closer to midnight, he was aggravated and said "I need to go have a smoke, I'm getting killed in here". He left, and the very next hand, the lady beside him was dealt the jackpot . He didn't say much, but you could just tell he just hated life at that very moment because had he not gotten up, it would of been his hand. The man calmly took his cane , his hat, jacket, coffee, and left. The next morning I found out when he did leave he drove his car straight through his bank and was arrested.
5) Slick Robber
I actually give props to people who can actually pull this off. This story may confuse you so I'll try and explain things as best as possible. A lot of casinos have machines as soon as you walk through the front doors. A man walks up to one of these machines and sticks in HIS $100 bill. He doesn't gamble it, instead he hits the cash out button and gets a $100 TITO ticket where he then takes the ticket to the ATM machine to get his $100. Now remember, his Original $100 is in the slot machine. He then takes the $100 from the ATM and goes back to the same machine, and repeats this process over a hundred times. Essentially he's taking money from the ATM, and loading up the Slot Machine . Now he knows he can't do it too much because if the slot machine gets full of money, the machine will shut down and the slow attendant will have to take all the cash out. So he deposits over $10,000 , then has a small crowbar, he cracks the machine open and makes a run out the front door. To my knowledge he was never caught . But damn, that was pretty smart .
EDIT:
6) Mental Health is a thing.
10PM man walks in to play some high limit BlackJack. This guy knows the game and played well. Dressed nice, drank juice/tea , a little bit of a attitude, cashed in over $10,000. When this man was half way down his buy in, he said something a long the lines of "If I don't win here tonight, I'm going to go set myself on fire." I wasn't sure if he was serious because when people are down, they tend to say a lot of nonsense. I actually left early that night, and from a third party was told he did exactly that in the parking lot. The next day it was clear something terrible had gone wrong in the parking lot .
EDIT:
7) Nothing good happens after midnight
After a busy Saturday night, I was dealing a mix of games, and during this story I was in the middle of Blackjack. I had one young kid (probably 19) sitting in the middle, one older male probably in his later 40's sitting beside him on his right, and I had a really nice couple in their 20's sitting together at the other side. This young kid wasn't playing just sort of watching, and ever time the old man won he would give this young guy some of his winnings. The older man, was a wine drinker, and he had black between all of his teeth, I'll never forget. He's a little drunk but nothing terrible. As the night goes on, the older man goes and uses the washroom, at which point the couple asked the young guy "Oh was that your dad?" and the young guy says "Hah, no I wish!". The couple and I just looked at each other. This old guy, was in complete control over this kid. Absolutely disgusting. The night ends, and I find out the couple called a few of their friends, and they all waited outside by this old mans truck and beat the living hell out of him. 40 years old, sleeping with a 19 year old, completely brain washed . Very weird.
8) That one co-worker where you just wish they would quit.
One of our co-workers, nice guy but had a very big ego and we as employees just sorta left him alone. One day he had enough of the atmosphere and quit. Now usually when you quit, you cannot come back until you paperwork is finalized. How ever, HR was in that day, and he was given the paperwork the very next day. He came in, cashed in $1000, and made $50,000 in about a hour at the Baccarat table. My manager, was extremely annoyed, because now this guy is just mocking the casino and having the time of his life (Thanks for the big tip by the way :) ) and so he decides to call it quits. He wants to ban himself and he wants $50,000 in cash. The casino says Nope, we are going to give you a cheque. Now here's the thing, most business people will take the cheque, how ever you CANT CASH the cheque until the following monday because it's on that day where the funds are available. The casino on the other hand will cash their own check in anytime , because they want you to play. So this guy pretty much said go to hell I want my cash, and he called the police. Police show up, and management promptly gave him the cash.I though it was absolutely hilarious .
​
9) No good deed goes un punished
I was dealing Three Card Poker, and the jackpot was around $17,000. This old man (a regular) was sitting there all day grinding it out. Super nice guy, always a pleasure to deal to. Well, after hours of playing, he stands up and says "Hey john!, can you come here for a minute?" so his buddy John comes over. He says to John "I need to go take a piss real quick, can you play my card until I get back?" John agrees . John takes the chips and I stop him and explain he can't play his friends chips, he needs to cash in and play his own. And he does. Welp, second hand out and bam, doesn't he win it. The old man comes back and is so happy, he can't believe it. John, took his $17,000, didn't say a word to his "buddy" and walked away. I never felt so much hatred in all my life. Didn't give him a dollar, not a thank you, nothing. The old man sits back down again, the progressive resets to $2500, and he sat there grinding away again.
10) The Top Knot
I had this player , young guy, who was born into a fortune. One of his relatives passed away and left him a pretty big sizable amount of money, so he played poker every single day for the rest of his days. I will add, he IS a good player. I did not enjoy his company just because of the "Know-it-All" attitude, but he was good. We'll call him John. John is 5'10, and well build, with muscle. John also decided today was the day to show off his Top Knot. (google top knot if you're not sure what I mean) So he sits down, and he's absolutely KILLING the table. Every hand, after hand, after hand. And because he's in such a good mood, he's playing any two cards, calling any $500 bet, and he's just dominating. This one guy at the table decided he had enough. He got up, without saying a word and left. A moment later, he comes back in, walks behind John, and takes a pair of scissors , and cuts off his Top Knot. I for one couldn't believe it, dying laughing inside, and it just turned into one big brawl. That was a good day.
11) That one bad seed
One of my best friends who I haven't seen in YEARS ended up being part of the crew. Was kind of nice to catch up. We never really got along as we grew up because he has a very high picture of himself . He wanted that 10/10 woman. A mansion, and a new Corvette. So every month or so we would all go up to the other casino to play. I myself would bring no more than $500, but I couldn't understand how this guy (we'll call him Kyle) was spending THOUSANDS of dollars at the tables. So this wen on for a few months. Well, one day, as we're closing the casino, he and I are in the High Limit room and we're getting ready to close the tables. We are told to take the chips out, count them, put them back, sign this piece of paper and that's it. Well as the supervisor was locking the tray, the piece of paper fell to the floor, so she asked Kyle to grab the piece of paper. As he bends over, a great big $500 chip falls right out of his sock. Kyle was fired immediately , but it all made sense. They offered Kyle a deal where if he replaced all the stolen chips they would not make it public. Not sure how that turned out.
12) If I ever decide to write a book, this will be the last chapter: <3
After working at my first Casino for five years, I met a Indian woman who was visiting from another part of the country. During this time I was explaining a game to her, which honestly I don't think she even cared. She explained she was visiting and sight seeing , and that was that.Well, two years later I ended up moving to the other side of the country and transferred casinos, and low and behold she worked there as a Dealer. We got married , and it's been 5 years.
13) The Tip
One of our tables that we've had for a couple years had a progressive jackpot that had reached $100,000. The dealer at the table was sitting pretty lonely. Nobody really played the game because people knew it was extremely difficult to win the jackpot. My memory is a tad foggy, but you somehow needed to flop the royal flush. This young guy sits down and says to the dealer, we'll call him John. "John, if you pay me that jackpot, I will tip you $10,000" Well John started dealing, and about a half hour into his shift, he F*cking did it. He dealt him the royal. And you know something?This young lad, kept his word, and he made sure there was a audience, and he tipped exactly $10,000. That was a moment right there. That pay cheque was real nice. I think we all got about $500 more than usual. The moment that jackpot was awarded they got rid of the table because the money it was making was not near what the casino wanted. I'm sure there have been bigger tips at other casinos, but that was something special .
14) The Lawsuit
Now this story I'm going to have to beat around the bush a bit due to the nature of what happened. I can't won't answer any questions that you may have on this topic other than what I have to say because it had a lot of publicity . The waitresses at this casino had to wear very thin sexy clothes. Not borderline legal, but it was noticed. One day they called all the waitresses to come in and explained they were changing their outfit to something even more sexier. Now these new dresses were very very borderline legal . The staff said No way. We're not wearing that.So , friday night comes, and the staff work their whole shift, then at the end of their shift were called into a meeting and were all fired. Welp, one of those ladies father was a pretty big time lawyer. Brough the casino to court and won. They won big. Good for them. We had no waitresses for a couple days haha.
Thanks for reading along, I have many more I can add as the day goes on, those were just some off the top of my head. Feel free to ask any questions of the Casino industry. I don't really have many stories about the surveillance department because that's the one area where I can't really say a whole lot due to its privacy and contracts I was and still am under.

I grew up in a small mountain town named Eureka. It was founded in the late 1800s during the gold rush, but after the mines dried up the town began its slow descent into decay. Half the houses are empty or abandoned now.
You can see a picture of the kind of houses here in Eureka:
First house
Second house
When a massive construction project began nearby, it was the talk of the town for weeks. Why would they build something in a sleepy dying town like Eureka? It wasn’t until my sister Selene talked to a few construction workers that we discovered they were building a casino.
A casino up in the mountains, over two hours away from Denver. None of us could understand why they’d chosen here of all places. After a few months of work, the casino was done.
I took a picture of the town with the completed casino in the background to the right. The ten-story-structure sticks out like a sore thumb off in the distance.
Town+Casino
After the casino opened, they hired a few dozen members of the town, offering high paying jobs to work as dealers or cleaning staff. I was already employed as a firefighter, but my sister Selene got a job as a blackjack dealer. She’s a widow with two young kids, so the paycheck was a real lifesaver.
Still, something about the situation seemed too good to be true. The jobs over there paid far too well, and the management was far too accommodating. The fire station where I work is located high on a hill overlooking the town, so I began watching the casino from a distance each day.
I had initially thought that the casino was located in a terrible location, but I was apparently wrong. True, Eureka was hours from any major city, but despite that, a bus full of people arrived every morning and left every evening.
One night I was over at my parent’s house and had dinner with Selene and her kids. I asked her about her experience as a dealer.
“It’s Ok,” she said. “Just a little boring I guess.”
“Boring?” I asked. “I’m surprised you don’t have your hands full.”
“Why’s that?” she asked. “It’s like you said, Eureka’s too small. I never have people playing cards. The casino is almost always completely empty.”
I wasn’t sure what to make of that. If the place was always empty, what happened to the people who I’d seen arriving on buses? “I’ve been keeping an eye on the building,” I said. “A bus full of people typically arrives around 9 AM every day.”
“Really?” she asked, looking confused. “If that’s true, I’ve never seen them.
“I can see it from the fire station,” I said. “If you head out for a smoke break at 9 AM, you’ll probably see them arriving.”
“Interesting,” she said. “I’ll do that. If they’re being processed for their organs or something, I’ll let you know.” She laughed.
“Har har,” I said sarcastically.
The next night she sent me a text calling me over. When I arrived, she was nearly breathless with excitement.
“Orin, You were right,” she said. “A big group of people did arrive, but they didn’t walk into my part of the casino. Instead, they all walked into an elevator at the back of the building. I’m not sure where that goes.” She looked thoughtful. “It was weird. They looked… How can I say it? Desperate? Something about the whole situation was very off. I’m gonna check out the elevator tomorrow.”
I told her to be careful, though, to be honest, I was excited to hear about what she discovered. When I visited my parent’s house the next night, I found her two kids there alone. They told me that Selene had never returned from work.
I called all her friends, then all our neighbors, but no one had seen her since she left for work that morning. Our conversations regarding the casino flooded my mind, then a plan began to form.
Early the next morning I walked across town in my nicest pair of jeans and a button-up shirt. I pushed through the door to the casino and saw that Selene wasn’t lying. The place was all but deserted. Three dozen slot machines crowded the walls surrounding a few tables interspersed throughout the floor of the casino. The only players in the whole building were Bob and Donald, two locals.
I walked up to a nearby table where Bridget, a girl I’d gone to high school with, was shuffling cards. She broke into a grin when she saw me. “Hey Orin, you here for a few rounds of blackjack?”
“I wish,” I said. “No, I’m here to ask about Selene. She never made it home last night.”
Bridget’s expression darkened. “Really? Have you asked around?”
“I already called around. Have you seen her?”
She shook her head. “No, our schedules rarely line up. I’ll be sure to let you know if I--” Her eyes focused on something behind me, and she cut herself off.
I turned around to see the casino’s pit boss watching us both. He was a tall thin man in an impeccably clean black suit. When I turned back towards Bridget, she was looking down at the table and shuffling cards absent-mindedly.
“Well, if you hear anything, let me know,” I said.
She nodded, so I turned around and headed for the pit boss. I stuck out my hand. The temperature of his hand was so hot that I had to pull my hand away after a few seconds.
“Have… have you seen my sister Selene?” I asked. “She hasn’t been seen since her shift here yesterday.”
He smiled. “Sir, this floor is for players. You’re more than welcome to head to the tellers for chips, but barring that I’m afraid I’ll have to ask you to leave.”
I stared at him for a long second before stalking towards the door. When I looked back, he was talking with Bridget.
I checked my watch. 8:55 AM, just as I’d planned. I walked around the back of the building and waited as the morning bus pulled around the building. I waited for the telltale hiss of the opening doors and the sound of people descending before I rounded the corner and joined the crowd. None of them paid any particular attention to me as I walked with them into the casino.
The crowd walked through a side door down a hallway to an elevator. Small groups of people entered the elevator as the rest of us waited for our turn. I shot a glance at the casino patrons, surprised at their diversity. There seemed to be people from all different countries and ethnicities. I heard one speaking Japanese and another speaking what sounded like an African language.
My turn came along with a few other patrons in the elevator. A sickly woman hobbled into the elevator beside me carrying an IV that was still connected to one of her veins. We piled in and rode up to the top.
The elevator rose for a few long seconds. I wasn’t sure what I would find, but I steeled myself for something horrible. The elevator’s speaker let out a TING, then the doors opened.
We all walked out onto what looked like a standard casino. Another few dozen slot machines ringed the walls, but on this floor, they were almost all occupied by customers. I took in the scene, confused at why they’d have a ground floor that was almost completely empty when this place was almost--
Selene was dealing cards at a nearby table.
I jogged over and sat down at an open seat. None of the players around me paid me much attention.
“Selene!” I said. “Are you OK? Did you spend the night here last night?”
Her eyes were glassy and confused. She looked up at me with a dumb expression and didn’t respond to my question.
“Selene?” I asked.
“What’s your bet?” she asked me. “This table is for blackjack players only.”
“I…” I trailed off, looking at the players around me. None of them were betting with chips of any kind. “What’s the minimum bet?” I asked.
“Three years,” she responded.
“Three years then,” I said, not knowing what that referred to.
Selene nodded, then began dealing cards. I shot a look down at my hand. King and a 9. Selene dealt out cards for herself, showing a 9. I stood, then leaned forward again. “Should I call the police? Are you--”
“Congratulations,” she said tonelessly.
An almost impossibly warm hand grabbed my shoulder. I spun to see the pit boss I’d spoken to earlier. He gave an impressed smile. “Orin, was it? I’m impressed, truly. Would you mind if I had a word with you?”
I shot a look back at Selene who was dealing the next round of cards. Then I got to my feet, balling my hands into fists. “What did you do to her?”
The pit boss clasped his hands behind his back. “Nothing more, and nothing less than what I’m going to do to you. That is, offer you the chance to play.”
“What the hell is that supposed to mean?”
The pit boss nodded his head towards a nearby slot machine. A woman in a wheelchair pulled a lever and watched the flashing numbers spin. They exploded in a cacophony of sirens and flashing lights. “WINNER WINNER WINNER!” The machine screeched.
The woman in the wheelchair put her feet on the ground and stood up on a pair of wobbly legs that had clearly never been used before.
“As in any other casino,” the pit boss said, “you must wager for the chance to win.”
“She... won the use of her legs?” I asked, feeling light-headed. “Wait,” I said. “I played blackjack just now. ‘Three years,’ Selene told me. What does ‘three years’ mean?” I asked.
“Three years of life, of course. Did you win?”
My mouth felt dry. “I-- Yes, I won.”
He smiled warmly. “Congratulations. I hope you enjoy them. I can tell you from personal experience that watching the decades pass is a bore. Give it some time and you’ll be back to spend them.”
I watched the pit boss’s face. He couldn’t have been more than a few years older than me, and I was in my early thirties. I looked around at the casino. No one was playing with chips of any kind. “So what?” I asked. “I won years of life. That woman won the use of her legs. What else can a person win here?”
“Oh, almost anything. They can win almost anything you can imagine.”
A cold feeling settled in my stomach. “And what do they wager?”
His eyes flashed with greed. “Almost anything. They can wager almost anything you can possibly imagine. Anything equal in value to the item they want in return.” He nodded towards a nearby roulette table.
A man stood by the table, cradling his hands. “Another finger,” he called out. He only had three fingers remaining on his left hand. As I watched, the ball came to a stop, and another finger disappeared from his left hand.
The pit boss extended his hands. “Feel free to try any of our games. Bet and win whatever you’d like.” He reached out and snatched my hand. A feeling of intense warmth passed up my arm to my chest. “There,” he said. “I’ve even given you some house money to get you started. An extra decade of life, on me.”
I ripped my hand away, staring at him in horror. Then I looked back at Selene. Something clicked in my mind. “You offered her the chance to play. What did she want?” I asked.
“Her husband,” the pit boss said. “Quite the sad story. He died two years ago. She wanted him brought back to her.”
“What did she wager?” I asked.
“She wanted the chance to win a soul, the most valuable object in existence. I’m sure you can imagine what she needed to wager for the chance to win it. What she wagered is unimportant. The important question is: What do you want, Orin?”
I stared at Selene with a flat expression. “I’m sure you can imagine.”
His eyes flashed with greed again. “How wonderful. The casino could always make use of another dealer. Feel free to make your wager at any one of our games; I’ll be eagerly awaiting the results of your night. Oh, and do take advantage of our waitresses. We always supply food and drink for ‘high rollers’.” He walked away.
I spent the next few hours trying to decide which game to play. I was going to be wagering my soul, so I wanted the highest chance possible. Slots and roulette were out. I’d done some reading online about counting cards, so I figured that blackjack gave me the best odds.
I walked up to Selene’s table and sat down. “Bet?” she asked with that same toneless voice. “Three years,” I said.
I spent the next hour or so doing my best to remember how to count cards. I knew that low cards added one to my count and high cards decreased it by one, but the casino used three decks. I had read something about how that was supposed to change my calculation, but I couldn’t quite remember how.
Every time I won a hand, I cursed myself for not putting everything on the line. Every time I lost, I breathed a prayer of thanks that I’d waited. And all the while, I kept track of the count.
I had lost fifteen years of life when the count finally reached +5.
“Bet?” Selene asked.
“I wager my soul so you can be free,” I said.
The table around me fell silent. Selene’s eyes flickered, but she showed no other emotion as she dealt the cards. I watched my first card, punching the air in excitement when I saw a Jack. My excitement turned to ash when my second card was a four. Fourteen.
I looked at her hand. One card was facedown, but the faceup card was a King. I swore loudly, staring down at my hands.
“Hit?” she asked. The entire table was silently watching me.
“Hit,” I said, not looking down. The table erupted in cheers. I looked down to see a 7 atop my two other cards. 21. Blackjack.
I looked at Selene who flipped over her facedown card to reveal a 9. 19. I won.
The glassy look left her eyes immediately. She looked around in surprise, then her eyes locked on mine. “Orin?” she asked, then almost immediately began to cry. The entire casino broke out in cheers.
I grabbed her hand and headed for the elevator. The doors had begun to close when the pit boss reached out with a hand to stop them.
“Congratulations,” he said, beaming. He seemed to be honestly excited.
“Shouldn’t you be upset?” I asked.
“Not at all. Casinos love it when we have big winners. It inspires the other players to make larger bets. I imagine I’ll gain two or three dealers before the night is through from your performance.”
“Great,” I said flatly. “Now let us go.”
“Not yet,” he said. “You didn’t just win, Orin. You got a blackjack. And blackjack pays out 1.5 times your bet. You won your sister’s soul and more.”
I stared, not sure what to say. “What are you saying? I won half a soul extra?”
The pit boss grinned wildly. “Just remember what I said. You’ll find living for decades and decades to be a boring experience. After a few centuries, you’ll be back to gamble that half a soul away. Congratulations!”
He removed his hand, and the elevator doors slammed shut.
I helped Selene back to her house. Her children were relieved. I watched them cry, then moved into the kitchen to start making dinner.
It’s been a few days since that experience. The casino is still out there, and buses full of people still arrive. I… I cut my hand pretty bad a few days later. When I checked it an hour later, it had already healed, no scar or anything. I’m not sure exactly what I won at that casino, but there’s no way I’m ever going back.
X

I used to be a Financial Advisor for a very brief period almost 10 years ago for Peter Schiff. At the time I was in my early 20s and liked a lot of what he said. He frustrates me a lot more now and fails to adapt accordingly. Anyhow, I now run junkiebonds.com. Mostly a website researching US macro and discussing the worst institution ever created: The Federal Reserve.
Here’s some quick advice for beginners and even further on up I’m sure.
I've seen an unbelievable amount of these advertisements in the last few weeks. I just came across a comment in this room about just beginning and who to trust for paid services.
This may seem counterintuitive but if you're just beginning in the stock market DO NOT buy anything for education or trading. All the material you need is available for free online. Investopedia and YouTube have everything.
If you're just beginning you need to educate yourself and make small purchases. Education is the easiest part of trading in the stock market. The hard part is educating yourself about yourself. I've seen a few beginners that trade frequently and have done very well - in all likelihood they'll eventually lose all of their gains(+95% chance at bare minimum).
Stay away from paid services that claim they can help you trade. 99% are bullshit. Only experienced individuals should use these services because those individuals most likely know the few real people or firms that actually provide value. Experienced traders use these services for insight, education, and to help their process. Beginners have other obstacles to deal with first before these would properly benefit them.
Fuck Tim Sykes, those raging bull fucks, and others. They're full of shit. They are just a salesman using flashy marketing. It doesn't mean they haven't ever done well themselves - I think Tim Sykes actually did - but they realize selling hope, making millions, along with a little education is not just more profitable but it also eliminates risk.
In my opinion, I believe I could start a very “successful” subscription service. It’s aggravating seeing these guys because fooling beginners is almost like shooting fish in a barrel. But I’m not going to start a business where 95% of profits are based off of fooling others with slick marketing.
If anybody comes across a service you may be interested in but aren’t sure of its validity, feel free to send it to me and I’ll provide my two cents.
I’m going to explain trading by summarizing how I go about it. I’m not a day trader - I’m not making multiple trades a day and I recommend you do not do that either unless you want to lose money.
Before joining Euro Pacific Capital I would make a few trades a day. 50% of my portfolio was for long term investments 1+ years and the other for my speculation. I was fortunate enough to begin these investments at end of 2008 and early 2009. The long term side would do well and my speculations did alright too. The problem was I had big goals and desires for more wealth even though I had almost doubled the 12500 in less than a year. This led me to abandon stock speculating/trading because gains were too small and slow. However, stock options provided the leverage needed and I thought I had a trading process that would work.
Btw... “back in those days” I was paying 5.99 to buy and then 5.99 again to sell every trade! In 2010 my commissions were well above 2gs.
Reflecting on it now my process was abysmal and I’m surprised I was able to hold up for time I did. I was making reckless trades but one in particular really boosted my confidence. I bought far OTM calls on VXX(volatility) that expired in a few days. It was only a 100 dollars or so.
The market got slaughtered the next day. My calls were up over 4000%. I was up 4,950 dollars at 1205pm and then 4,150 a few minutes later. I believe I exited with a return of just over 4,300% which was a close figure to the actual dollars I made.
Here’s one of the most important points I’ll make: a PROFITABLE trade does not make it a GOOD trade by any means. That’s still one of the largest returns I’ve ever had and certainly the quickest but it was foolish.
It’s like going up to the roulette table and placing money on any number. The outcome of the spin does not change the fact this is a bad decision. Do not fool yourself by thinking your gains are all good decisions or investments. The only way you can have a good bet playing roulette is if you have knowledge or insight which puts the odds in your favor. And the only way you can do that is through some illegal con I believe. However, the market is not roulette. It can be. It can be worse if you make it that way.
Moving on... A few months after the big gain I had steadily lost money and I was getting a bit frustrated ——-
understanding how your emotions impact your thought processes and decision making is fundamental. There’s no manual for this part because every tradeperson is different. Happiness can and will influence your decisions. For some people it may cause them to be less disciplined or open to taking a risk and for others it will do the opposite. Traders create a process to eliminate the effects emotions can have - a simple example is to set a stop loss on a trade so you aren’t trying to guess when or if should prevent further losses or risk it. It’s important for beginners to do this. Do not enter trades where the losses cause worry and stress and you have no idea whether or not to sell. I don’t always have pre determined actions when I trade these days but I’ve also been doing this for over a decade and there are trades where it’s not as important or just not a good strategy. Again, if you’re a beginner please do not do this.
Back to my frustration... I entered an abnormally large call option order attempting to make up some losses - another stupid and beginner mistake. Unfortunately, the next day my parents needed help moving to Florida from Iowa. I had a 5g option that expired in 4 days and I wasn’t at my computer so I put in an order to (stop)sell if it so happens to fall quite a bit. This stock was amazon and it just so happens a negative headline came out right before opening bell. I had no idea bc I was still sleeping and dealing with moving.
The option price was around 5.20 and I had 10. My stop was at 4.
At 1030am we were going out for lunch and I went to check my position.
I was down 4,700 dollars.... because I put a LIMIT at 3.85.
You see, On this trade I went through ETRADE for whatever reason and I knew these sleezy guys sell their order flow - oh, btw Robinhood also sells their stock option orders but it’s really only important for a very small% of ppl - basically ETRADE profits from selling orders to other brokers who then complete your trade. So if these guys can see a price quickly drop and pop back up they’ll execute your order at worst price and then sell it for a profit a second later. Free money.
I was trying to limit any excessive scalping by putting a limit but amazon dropped quickly so E*TRADE of course did not get my order executed. If they were an honest and customer first company the order would’ve been executed and I wouldn’t have lost thousands of dollars. However, ultimately it is my fault and once again a stupid trade.
Trading is different from investing. Being an advisor certainly doesn’t make you a good trader. Advisors are typically there to plan long term investments and get to know their client so they’re able to adjust the risk in their portfolio accordingly.
A year or so after amazon I was working for Peter Schiff. He had really exploded in popularity because his predictions about the housing bubble all came to fruition. As an advisor you can’t trade. I was only there for a year because my mother was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and I left to be with her. I had to save funds and for a few years after didn't trade either.
These days I'm back trading but its much different. I enjoy macro research and writing so i use this to my advantage. In 2020, I made around 40 trades total. Some of these are still open. Most of my trades are options and last a few weeks to months but two open positions don't expire until Jan 2022. Last year I made a return of 135%. I made a few huge mistakes and one out of laziness. Earlier in the year I was up 200%. I believe my process is solid but also needs improvement.
I try to limit my trades and find areas I'm most confident in. I also recommend you do not make hasty decisions. MISSING TRADES can be hard but it's a much better result. 135% really isn't that great of a gain considering how well the market did and the style of my trading. I missed many trades I was really confident in and thought were easy bc I have a strategy that may require 100% of my proceeds into Few positions. It sucks knowing I should've and could've easily had a 400/500% year if I chose to be aggressive. But I stick to my game plan because I'm confident later this year or next my returns will be multiple 1000s of percent. Maybe I'm wrong. We will see. I do best when Im unbelievably confident in an outcome and yet able to remain patient. I find I can do better or much worse if I change these.
My friend that's a girl did better than me because she bought her first and only stock this year which was Tesla. Does it suck underperforming your beginner girl friend having been in this trade for 10 years?
Absolutely.
But all of that noise must be drowned out lol. Everybody has to find their own way and what works best for them. I don't use reddit too often but for some reason I received an invitation to this board and joined tonight. I figured I'd share my thoughts and story and I hope this helped. I didn't proofread this.
My website is junkiebonds.com and you can find me on @Twitter at @junkiebonds - I started both in 2020 but am just really beginning to take off.
I'm always willing to help anybody with questions. Thanks for reading

In a recent discussion with u/Multiman778, I made a list ranking the Paper Mario series. Here's what I wrote.

This'll probably trigger someone, but aight.

1. Color Splash
2. The Origami King
3. 64
4. Sticker Star
5. The Thousand-Year Door
6. Super

Honestly, choosing the rankings for TTYD and Super was kinda hard, because IMHO, they're both boring. I just thought Super was more boring, so it gets booted to sixth.
Same sort of thing with SS and 64. They're both really fun IMO, but 64 was more fun.

So, if you were paying attention to the entries on this list, you'd notice that TTYD and Super were near the bottom, and how I went on to remark about how I thought both games were "boring". Needless to say, I have some explaining to do.
When I first heard about Paper Mario as a whole, it was from watching trailers for Super and Sticker Star on the Nintendo Channel for the Wii. (Does anyone still remember that?) At the time, both games looked really fun to me. Then again, I was 5, so anything looked fun to me. Fast-forward a few years, I decide to check out some of these games on YouTube. Sticker Star still looked fun enough, Super looked more so like something I'd be able to get into, as one of my first Mario games was NSMBW.
(Remember I said that. It's a surprise tool that'll help us later.)
The darker story turned me away a little, but then I found a show called RWBY that I really enjoyed, and then at that point there was no reason not to try it.
It was at this time that I heard of TTYD and 64. as well. 64 definitely lived up to it's prerelease name (Super Mario RPG 2, in case you didn't know), and TTYD?
I dunno. There was something about it that I couldn't explain, but I just didn't like it. Even speedruns looked boring to me. The at-the-time upcoming Color Splash looked pretty cool though.
Fast-forward another few years, where I play Super and Sticker Star for the first time. I had a blast playing Sticker Star. It was more fun than I originally thought I would have, even. Sure, I did end up running out of stickers for the Bowser Jr. fight in World 4/5, but I knew a pretty good (and really fast) coin grinding spot, and was able to stock up again easily. The only part of the game I didn't like was that one raft level with the giant fish, but otherwise, the game was solid.
Super, on the other hand, was the complete opposite. I found it to be an absolute slog, going through the game. So much so, that I can say that my favorite level was the tree in Chapter 3. And that's saying something. Back during those times when I was looking up these games on the web, a ton of the same arguments made now were made back then, too. Namely, the lack of original characters. Sure, they may all be Toads, but I'd rather have Toads than a square with a couple of lines attached. And don't even get me started on 2-3 or the postgame.
2-3 was quite literally jumping for an hour so I could walk to the right for another hour. Yeah, you can slide on the wheel as Mario to make your life slightly easier, but that doesn't even work properly half of the time, and the text box that pops up every time the wheel so much as slows down makes it faster to just walk how you're intended to! And even that's slow! I still have a life to live, you know!
The postgame is just as frustrating, if not more so. First off, for the sake of story reasons, Tippi is gone, so if there's any invisible secrets you missed, or new enemies you want to know about, you have to go to Fort Francis and pay 9,999 coins for a robot replica named Tiptron. As far as I'm aware, unlike Sticker Star, there aren't any easy and quick places to go and grind coins, either. The only one that comes to mind at the moment is the Pits Of 100 Trials. Oh, yeah. The Pits Of 100 Trials. How could I forget? As you get later in the game, you unlock the Pits Of 100 Trials; one being in Flipside, one being in Flopside, and the last one being in the Sammer Kingdom. All of these throw 100 trials at you, with a reward for clearing all of them. The Flipside and Flopside Pits both have 91 rooms filled with enemies, where you have to defeat the one that drops the key to move forward. Every tenth room is a break area, where you can buy items (if you're lucky), or leave. If you leave, you'll have to start over from room 1, so it's usually not the best course of action to take. But then what if you're someone like me, who has chores to do, and a dog to take care of, and a brother to annoy? Then I hope you set aside a couple of hours. Each.
The Sammer Kingdom Pit is a lot more straightforward, simply throwing 100 enemies your way, and expecting you to beat all of them. This would be fine if they didn't have to talk to you before and after EVERY SINGLE ROUND. The rewards for completing these aren't even any good, either. You get Dashell for completing the Flipside one, which is pointless, because Carrie is way better, and you get Catch Cards for completing the other two, which aren't of any use whatsoever except for 100%! And there is no way in heck you are getting me to 100% Super Paper Mario.
As far as my complaints toward TTYD, though... you might want to sit down for this. This is where the takes get really hot.
First off, the arguments you've already heard. The backtracking, the hallway-inspired area design, all that. Backtracking in video games is fine by me. Like I said, I've played NSMB before, so I know that feeling when I get to the Goal Pole and realize I missed the third/second Star Coin, and have to speed back through the level to get it. When you have to backtrack between the different world of the game though, is where things get a little iffy. Color Splash, Sticker Star, and heck, even Super handled this aspect really well. In CS and SS, you can press Start on any level you've already been to to simply leave to the world map, from where you can quickly go and grab the thing (or sometimes Thing) you need. Super's method was a bit more convoluted, but essentially did the same thing; go to the menu, and use the Escape Pipe to leave from pretty much anywhere. Granted, in Super, you still need to walk back to where you were before, but it's not as bad as TTYD, where you not only need to slowly walk to where you were before, but also to where you had to backtrack to to get the thing you needed. This isn't the first time, and it won't be the last time I say this, but I have a life to live, dang it! And it really doesn't help that you have to do this multiple times for MANDATORY STORY PROGRESSION. Sure, you can skip most of it with glitches, but I don't know how to do any of that!
As for the hallways, I could really care less. Even two of my favorite games of all time, SM3DW and Splatoon, have areas that are literal straight lines. But in TTYD, this is pretty much the entire game. Like I said, I couldn't care less, but it is still an issue for a series that is 40% battles, and 60% exploration. Heck, Super had more exploration than this.
Oh yeah. The battles. Oh boy.
The battle system in TTYD is most often described as an expansion of the battle system from 64, which I adored everything about, minus the pretty much frame-perfect guard timing, that the tutorial barely helps with. TTYD's battle system, IMPHO, is more of a downgrade. Don't get me wrong, I loved the fact that the partners had their own HP. But a lot of the other things the game does I'm not a huge fan of. The audience mechanic I feel worked well in TOK; the audience helps you out, but there's a drawback; you spend coins that could be used on weapon upgrades or story progression. In TTYD, the audience helps you refill you star energy, as well as helping in other ways whenever they feel like it. They can also screw you over. Whenever they feel like it. That means the audience can randomly get up from their seats and say, drop a stage light on your partner's head, forcing you to rethink the entire strategy you spent the entire rest of the fight forming. And if you were relying solely on that strategy? Pfft. Say hello to the Game Over screen. Yeah, that can very well be blamed on the player being unprepared, but we can't forget the fact that this entire domino effect stemmed from random chance. I know RPGs have random elements; it's kind of a staple of the genre, but this is ridiculous. And yeah, I know you can off some of the audience members. But what if I told you that that was only the beginning?
Say hello to the Bingo Wheel, which is singlehandedly the dumbest game mechanic I've ever seen in any video game ever, let alone in an RPG. The mechanic was sort of in Sticker Star, where it could be activated for 10 coins, allowing you to increase the number of stickers you used that turn, as well as healing you, giving you extra coins, poisoning you, giving you a free attack, or whatever the heck the Lightning Bolt did. Most of the wheel's effects were good, but there was the one bad one. even then, you could still avoid it by slowing down the spinner, though it would cost you more coins. The mechanic was in Color Splash too, but instead of increasing card slots, it simply gave you a card, should you be running low. There were no drawbacks or extra rewards for doing it, either. You just spend coins and get a card. In TTYD, the Bingo Wheel is a bit of a nightmare. It shows up pretty much randomly (Unless there's something I'm missing), with the first two spots on the wheel filled in with a random image. You're then tasked with pressing A and praying to RN-Jesus that you do/don't line up the last picture. If you do, then you'll get an effect based on the image, but the most common picture I've seen is the Poison Mushroom, so you usually don't want to line it up. There's no way of slowing down the wheel, either. This, right here? This is the reason I'd rather play Sticker Star. Yeah, there's still a roulette wheel as part of the battles, but you choose when it shows up. That's something most of the modern Paper Mario games have been doing, actually. Grabbing elements from TTYD's battle system that usually occurred via random chance, and mapping them to a button, and removing some of the hinderances from using it. Some people don't like this, but honestly, I'm totally on board with it.
Then, there's the argument that the modern games don't have any original characters.
...Okay, yeah. For some long-time Mario players, this isn't even a debate. The original characters were better. But on my behalf, I'm going to remind you:

one of my first Mario games was NSMBW.
(Remember I said that. It's a surprise tool that'll help us later.)

As I'm sure you're all aware of, NSMBW (or New Super Mario Bros. Wii), isn't exactly a "Beacon of Originality". Heck, the entirety of the NSMB series isn't. So when I saw the different species inhabiting the different towns, I had to do a double-take. It made me ask "Is this a Mario game?", which might be the question some of you want to be asked when playing these kinds of games. Something so unique and unlike anything else in the series that it makes you question the game you're really playing for a moment. For me though, the guy who grew up playing NSMBW as a uncertified-but-totally-certified Blue Toad main, it was really alienating. Don't get me wrong, I thought Goombella and Professor Frankly fit right in with the rest of the Mario cast, but if you told me that Admiral Bobbery was a Bob-Omb, I probably wouldn't believe you. I remember when I saw the fisherman in PM64 for the first time. I was really confused as to what he was supposed to be, and after talking to him at least 50 times in between chapters, I still don't know much about him besides the fact that he acts like Big The Cat.
Heck, I showed PM64 to someone when they were visiting once, and they said verbatim, "If I got this game when I was a kid, I probably would've returned it."
Those are words you never want to hear anyone say about any game ever. And it's not like that person wasn't a gamer, either. They were very familiar with the modern Mario games.
...Notice how I said they were familiar with the "modern" Mario games. Sure, maybe Nintendo is playing it safe. But you know what? In the end, they're still a business. Businesses have to make money. And in attempting to succeed in that endeavor, they have to appeal to everyone. Not just the people who want TTYD 2, but also the people who grew up playing NSMBU and SM3DW.
If you've made it this far, congrats. You're awesome. I'd give you an award, but all I have is a Catch Card of Dashell, and I'm not sure you'll want it. Either way, if you want, you can put your overall Paper Mario rankings in the comments or something. Idk. Anyway, I'd like to thank you for reading, Ask you to put an F in the chat for Bobby, and wish all of you with dogs to take care of and brothers to annoy a very pleasant evening. Thanks for coming to my TED talk.

I wrote a comment the other day giving my guidelines on investing in VC funds having raised seed, series A, and series B at a startup with a couple of other co-founders.
I became preoccupied trying to find some more insights into the returns of Venture Capital as an Asset Class.
It's incredibly hard to find specific data on venture capital returns as funds don't openly publish this information. The best information I've found is AngelList's December 2019 paper that discuss the returns of 684 non-negative investments here:
https://angel.co/pdf/growth.pdf

Paper TL;DR

The TL;DR of the paper is venture capital is really two asset classes: Seed, Series A, and Series B is one asset class, then late stage Series C+ is a slower growth oriented asset class.
The summary statistics of the winning investments (keep in mind they don't at all talk about the losing investments which is BS):

	IRR	Multiple	Effective Duration
Minimum	+0%	1.0x	0.4
Median	+21%	1.7x	3.0
Mean	+35%	2.7x	3.1
Maximum	+520%	115x	6.4

IRR are in percentages per year (i.e., "p.a"). Effective durations are in years.

Later on, AngelList makes this statement:

This seems to be the case in venture capital as currently constituted; roughly half of the venture investments that we studied lose money.

The paper's suggestion is to treat seed rounds as lottery tickets, and Series A and Series B rounds may provide desirable effects to one's portfolio. Later stage investments are lower returns mostly due to companies staying private longer and longer.

Efficient Frontier Math of a VC Fund

At this point I'd like to adjust the Median and Mean IRR for losing money, then plot an efficient frontier graph to a 100% stocks portfolio. Quite frankly, I'm not sure how to make that adjustment. Not every investment that loses money goes to $0 after all, but definitely a much higher percentage in venture capital. There can be exits of "acqui-hires" and certainly there is value built up in a team. I'm disappointed AngelList didn't cover this area but this paper is certainly a marketing piece for their platform and NOT investment advice. I'm also disappointed that AngelList while talked about volatility but they didn't give any standard deviation metrics.
So I'll take a wild ass guess and halve the Median and Mean IRRs to adjust for the losing investments. Then for standard deviation of venture capital you'll find papers all over with a wide variety of guesses - highest I've read was 100% (lol), lowest was 21% (lol), one that made a strong case it closely mirrors US. Small-cap Growth Stocks, which makes logical sense as that's the closest public asset class one can get to.
So I'll use portfolio visualizer to make a efficient frontier from Jan 1972-Dec 2020 of 100% US stock market to US Small-cap Growth Stocks. Results
So over the time period 100% US Total Stock market has a 12.0% expected return, 15.65% standard deviation, and Small Cap Growth is 13.01% expected return, and 21.31% standard deviation. The Tangency Portfolio is 100% US Total Stock market according to PV, lol. Sharpe ratio of 0.47.
So now accounting for losses, we possibly have VC as an asset class of median of 10.5%, mean of 17.5%, and let's estimate a standard deviation of 30%. We know a median of 10.5% wouldn't be interesting to graph as the tangency portfolio will still be US Total Stock Market. So, let's say you use your connections and get into one of the hit firms as a LP as the paper quoted:

The heart of the venture business is being able to separate signal from noise, rolling up your sleeves and working with the entrepreneur to build something successful. Is there any coincidence that Yahoo, Google, YouTube and so many of these “hits” have come from a handful of firms? Certainly timing and luck play a huge part in our business, but minimizing it to a seat at a roulette table is a shame.

So what does the efficient frontier look like with US Total Stock Market and pretending you lucked into the better VC firms and have 17.5% average annual expected return, but with a standard deviation of 30% since it's private Series A/B investments?

Pretty Pictures: VTSAX / Venture Capital Efficient Frontier Graph

https://i.imgur.com/rq7pfOl.png
Pretty much linear under these generous assumptions. So it seems like the tangency portfolio of Venture Capital to 100% stocks is according to your risk tolerance and liquidity lockup tolerance. Unfortunately though, there is no tangency portfolio - an optimal allocation of venture capital does not exist with these assumptions I've made. Thus, it appears you're not being rewarded for the extra risk you're taking, and fortunately, not being penalized for it either. Just on this initial pass - it appears that the capital markets are efficient and have arbitraged the risk premiums away.
If you add on bonds to it then the tangency portfolio contains 0% of venture capital.

Why I'm avoiding VC Funds

Now, this is why I'm avoiding investing in VC firms and instead invest in Hedgefundie's UPRO/TMF portfolio. If you plot SPY/TLT at 55%/45% it's the tangency portfolio of SPY and TLT. You have an expected return of 12.28%, standard deviation of 7.16% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.64, which clearly beats 100% VTSAX. I used to be in 100% stocks. I'd rather have that portfolio as it's the same expected return, but a lot less volatility and drawdown risk. It's such a much better Sharpe ratio too - it's 3x less risky.
Meaning - if I'm okay with sleeping at night with the same risk and drawdown risk of 100% stocks, I can lever it 3x (using UPRO and TMF). 3x is about the max leverage, take the 1.50 Sharpe divided by say 0.50 of 100% stocks and you get 3x. If 100% stocks is too much, you can leverage it 2x instead of course, and unleveraged is phenomenal still. Unlike with Venture Capital funds, I am being rewarded with the extra risk I'm taking by leveraging up this portfolio.
Efficient Frontier of UPRO and TMF
Expected return of 35% and a 22% standard deviation. (Note: Hedgefundie modeled UPRO/TMF from 1986-onwards and the expected return varies between 18% on the low end, with 35% on the high end, with about the same 22% standard deviation had UPRO/TMF been around historically past then.)
Finally, Sharpe ratios are really old school, and they penalize both gains, and losses equally. I really wish people will start using Sortino ratios instead. Sortino ratios penalize losses but not gains, and 55% UPRO/55% TMF (55% SPY/45% TLT) both have a 3.0 Sortino ratio. (Like Sharpe ratios, Sortino ratios doesn't change with leverage.)

Final TL;DR

Playing Hedgefundies >>> VC with your risk capital.
Choose your own desired allocation of 100% stocks to Venture Capital. You're not being awarded extra for the risk you're taking, nor are you being penalized for the risk. It appears the capital markets have arbitraged the risk premium out of Venture Capital. Keep in mind most funds have a 10 year lockup, so I'd keep it at most to a modest allocation.

This guide aims to outline all of the best gambling cashback offers available over a range of sites, following this guide you should be able to make over £500 in cashback
Note - Cashback often takes a while to payout, bear this in mind when completing offers as you may have to wait to cashout your earnings
When completing these offers don't chase any loses as the cashback will give you a profit with nerly every offer
A short review of each site and some referral links
Topcashback - Cashback will show as tracked within a few days, can take a few weeks to become payable, in some cases even longer, asides from gambling they have great offers for car insurance and mobile phone contracts, worth taking a look to save some extra money!
Ref - Extra £5 when you make £10 cashback
Non-Ref - No reward
Quidco - Much the same as Topcashback
Ref
Non-Ref
Minimum payment - £10
Ohmydosh - Faster Payouts but less offers
Ref - Extra £1
Non-Ref - No reward
Minimum payout - Any
Cashback Earners - A lesser known site in need of a fresh look, this site also has some bad reviews, referal income is paid to the site on a monthly basis with the dates for each site being different, offers don't seem to show as tracked until the website receive their payment, cashback should appear in your account within 1 month of completing an offer. Cashout amounts are specific, its best to build up a balance and then withdraw. Payment takes around 3 weeks.
Ref - Sign up bonus £6.5
Non-Ref - Sign up bonus £6.5
Minimum payout is £20
Payment Proof - Payments for all sites can be seen here, quidco isn't shown as i have signed up for all the casinos on offer through topcashback

How to Maximize Profit - IMPORTANT - READ THIS

For the majority of these offers you want to play blackjack following the chart found here
Any blackjack game will do, look for a normal version of the game at the site you are playing on and make sure it is a non live game as the hand sizes will be lower.
When playing blackjack there will often be more than one spot that you can bet on, allowing the player to bet more than one hand at a time, Its important to only bet on one spot at a time as it reduces the variance of the game and will ensure you get the maximum return possible from the game, stick to £1 hand sizes when playing and dont be tempted to bet larger amounts as you will be getting a nice amount of cashback from every offer
Through playing blackjack this way the player will get a return of around 98%, meaning for every £100 staked you will lose around £2. If you make a loss on a casino site after completing the required wagering amount, withdraw your remaining balance, don't chase loses as the cashback will make up for loses and give you a profit in most cases.
All offers are updated fairly regularly, make sure to check the terms for each offer as information in this post may become outdated. Also check for other offers every now and then as new casinos are added!

TopCashBack Offers - £400+ Profit

Topcashback Referral - Get an extra £5 - See the Ref Link at the top of the page!
If you dont already have an account at top cashback, you can sign up through my referral to get an extra £5 added to you account once you make £10 cashback
Lottoland - Cashback £15
Add £11 and play 11 separate £1 hands, following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Betfair Casino - Cashback £70
Note this is not the poker offer
Add £50 to your account and play 50 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Quidco are offering £100 for this offer
Party Casino - Cashback £26.5
Deposit and play 30 single £1 hand son blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Tombola - Cashback £24.5
Deposit £10 and open the tombola roulette game, choose a £1 chip size and choose 5 spots, repeat this twice, withdraw any remaining balance, you will likely lose money here but the cashback will give you a profit
Coral - Cashback £46
Add £10 and play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Bingoport - Cashback £3
Sign up to bingoport to get an easy £3
Ladbrokes - Cashback £42
Add £10 to your account and play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Pokerstars - Cashback £32
Add £25 and play 25 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
STS - Cashback £21
Add £30 to your account and play 30 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
William Hill - Cashback £54
add £25 and play 25 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Megacasino - £15.75
Add £25 - Play 25 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
LottoGo - Cashback £3.18
Buy a euromillions ticket
Slingo - Cashback £24.75
Add £10 play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
PaddyPower Games - Cashback £20
Add £10 play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
The Football Pools - Cashback £24.75
Sign up for the £10 a month subscription, cancel this after 30 days
Lottomart - Cashback £18
Add £10 - Play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Genting Slots - Cashback £25
Add £30 play 30 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
OhMyDosh - Cashback £40+
Referral gives an extra £1, sign up through the ref link at the top of the post to get the bonus!
Gala Bingo - Cashback £17.50
Deposit at least £5, you'll get a £10 slots bonus and 100 free spins, these carry hefty wagering requirements, Open any slot and play the minimum spin size, play until you lose all of the money in your account or complete the wagering requirements on the bonus funds. Withdraw any remaining balance.
BGO - £10 Cashback
Deposit at least £15. Play 15 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. DONT ACCEPT the welcome bonus from BGO.
Lottosocial - Cashback £4
Sign up to Lotto Social - Use your correct phone number when joining as it is the only way to login to your account. Purchase 10 lines for £1, after making a purchase go to your account page and find the list of syndicates your are in, leave the syndicates to avoid making any more payments.
Cheeky Bingo - £10 Cashback
Deposit £10 and get a £40 welcome bonus, just play bingo with all of your funds and hope to get some wins, bonus has 4x wagering requirements.

Quidco - Cashback £100+

Quidco don't offer a sign up bonus, find my ref link at the top of the post if you want to help me out!
All of the offers on quidco are much the same as topcashback, the only offer worth noting is the betfair casino offer which pays £100
Betfair - £100 cashback
Add £100 and play 100 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.

Cashbackearners - Cashback £180+

Sign up Bonus
Get a £6.5 sign up bonus, think this works with or without the ref link, links are at the top of the post!
To find these offers just search for casino on the site.
All of these offers state that you only need to make a deposit, its best to play through the deposit 1x to ensure that the cashback is paid.
LuckyMeSlots - Cashback £15
Add £15 and play 15 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Spin Genie - Cashback £12.5
Add £12.5 and play 12.5 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Cashmo - Cashback £10
Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses.
Ice36 -Cashback £15
Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Spinhill Casino - Cashback £15
Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Galacasino - Cashback £30
add £30 and play 30 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Casino765 - Cashback £12.5
Add £12.5 and play 12.5 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Casinosuperwins - Not recommended, bad site, awful support
Casino2020 - Cashback £15
Add £15 and play through £15 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses.
Pocketwin - Cashback £10
Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses.
The Sun Vegas - Cashback £15
Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
DrSlot - Cashback £10
Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses.
MrSpin - Cashback £10
Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses.
PrimeCasino - Cashback £15
Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
ConquestAdor - Cashback £10
Add £10 play 10 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
MFortune - Cashback £10
Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses.
Thanks for reading, hope this of use to some people, happy earning!

Hello everyone! I have only been on Reddit for a few months but I learned so much from it that I figured I should try and give back to the community. English is my second language and this is the first time I ever write a full-length article, I hope you will enjoy reading it and I would be very thankful if you could provide some feedback about my writing, about the topic, or about anything else really… So here goes!
​
Why you should learn poker and game theory:
My story is similar to that of many: I learned about the game 10 years ago (during the golden age of online poker) when some friends of mine invited me to play a home game. Although I initially thought of poker as just another game of chance akin to playing slots or roulette in a casino, I quickly came to realize that there is a lot more to it as my more experienced friends would repeatedly get the best of me during these home games, which led me to start watching videos and reading strategy books to improve my skill… Little did I know it’d be the start of a journey that would impact many different aspects of my life way beyond the game itself, as most of the fundamental principles learned through poker can be applied to your decision-making outside of the game, especially when it comes to money management and investing. Now, let’s dive into a few of these principles:
​
- Risk management (i.e. Bankroll management)
When learning about how to be successful playing poker, the first big piece of advice most people come across is bankroll management or BRM. To understand BRM, you must first realize that poker has a lot of variance: you might be vastly ahead in a given hand but there is almost always a slim chance that you will lose in the end if one specific card hits. This implies that you will sometimes lose even though you were a 99% favorite, and that you will sometimes get unlucky and lose 2, 5 or maybe even 20 such encounters in a row. THIS is variance. It doesn’t mean that you played bad or that you made bad decisions, but rather that you got unlucky. Over time you will have lucky streaks and unlucky streaks, and these will average out in the long term… It’s just the way the game goes.
Now that we understand variance, let’s get back to BRM. What is it exactly? Let’s say you are the best poker player in the world but you only have 1000$ that you can EVER use to play with. Taking your whole 1000$ on one table and multiplying your stack at an exponential rate might seem like a good idea. Surely nothing can go wrong since you’re the best player in the world right? But variance can be a bitch ;) Even if you’re the best you will lose regularly and you will sometimes get unlucky, it’s just part of the game. The correct move here is to apply BRM, which means only using a small % of your available capital for each game you play in order to reduce the risk of going broke. Using only 100$ per game would already be a lot safer, but you still run the risk of going under on a streak of bad luck. If you only allocate 10$ per game you play, then it becomes virtually impossible for you to ever go broke, even on a huge streak of bad luck. Sure it’s not as exciting and you won’t be making money quite as fast as you could, but this is the way to go to make sure you don’t go broke…
This approach to risk management translates very well to investing:
- Only invest what you can afford to lose. Once the money is on the table it’s as good as gone, which is why you should only use your “spare” cash and never invest with your living expenses or worse, borrow money to invest.
- Diversify your investments. There is always a chance, however slim it might be, that you will lose most of your investment. This is why going all-in on a specific investment is generally a bad idea (this applies particularly well in the crypto space).
Proper BRM allows you to make sure that you will come out ahead in the long run if you play well, which basically comes down to making more good decisions than bad ones. But that’s assuming you don’t let emotions come in the way of your decision-making, which brings us to our next point…
​
- Emotional management (i.e. Handling tilt/Positive mindset)
Nobody likes losing… In the same way we enjoy winning because of the dopamine rush, we feel bad when we lose which is totally natural. Overcoming this and avoiding tilt (irrational decisions made out of angefrustration) is an essential skill for any successful poker player. You might play a sound game of poker and apply good BRM, but you will still lose if you let your emotions get the best of you.
After a loss, rather than being angry and frustrated, you should evaluate your decision-making. If your decision-making was good, you just got unlucky and you shouldn’t worry about it since you are playing for the long run (remember that variance teaches us that anything can happen in the short-term). If your decision-making was bad, you need to learn from your mistakes and move on. The key here is to always have a positive mindset: making mistakes is part of the learning process and should be seen as an occasion to improve. Being angry and ranting, on the other hand, rarely result in anything positive.
Again, this translates very well to investing:
- Don’t be impulsive, don’t let your emotions cloud your judgment. You should not FOMO because the price is pumping, nor should you sell because of FUD or price corrections. If you believe in a project, short-term price changes (did I hear someone say “variance”?) shouldn’t bother you.
- Don’t get stuck up on losses. You bought the top and it crashed immediately after? You sold the bottom right before a huge rally? Don’t let this bother you: what’s done is done and you just need to move on and make the best of your current situation.
- Have a positive mindset. Anger and frustration lead to nothing. Yes you could have bought in 2009 when you first heard about it, hindsight is always 20/20. Stay positive and keep learning/improving yourself.
The good thing about all this is that it goes way beyond poker or investing. Being aware of your emotions and how they affect you, learning how to handle losing even when you were “supposed” to win, etc… All this can tremendously help you in all aspects of life by making you less impulsive and more rational in your decision-making. Now, this leaves us with our last fundamental principle of a sound poker strategy:
​
- Basic stats and probabilities (i.e. Expected value/Odds)
To become an accomplished player, you will inevitably have to learn about these simple mathematical tools that poker players use all the time in their decision-making process, such as odds and expected value. To make it very simple, the expected value (EV) of any bet is (REWARD \ WinRate - RISK), meaning that if you can bet 1000$ with a chance to win 10k$ half of the time, your EV is *(10000\0.5)-1000 = +4000$**. Obviously these are great odds to take as long as you have enough capital to overcome variance. But things would be very different if the odds of winning were only 5% as your EV would then be negative *(10000\0.05)-1000 = -500$.*** Now this is clearly a bet you should not take…
Now that you know probabilities, statistics and game theory are useful decision-making tools in poker, guess what? They are also extremely useful in investing! Even better, the study of game theory with problems such as the “Byzantine generals” or the “Three prisoners” has been, along with cryptography, the foundation on which blockchain technology was built, enabling the trustless and decentralized services that are about to revolutionize our world…
Assuming this was enough to pique your interest and make you want to dig deeper, I’ll just add that just like the other topics we discussed and as you might have guessed, this translates very well to investing and also to pretty much anything in your life:
- Learn how to break down complex situations. Logical thinking paired with a statistical approach will help you break down any complex problem into several easier problems, making the whole thing a lot easier to approach/comprehend.
- Base your decisions on a methodical and rational approach. List every possible outcome along with its associated upside/downside, estimate the probability of each outcome to occur and make the best decision based on the information available.
My point here is that risk management, emotional management and statistics/game theory are all awesome tools that you should definitely add to your arsenal. Not only will it improve your money-management and investing, it will also be beneficial to your decision-making and to your life in general. Of course poker is not the only way to learn about these, but I personally found it to be the best practice ground to refine and improve them, which is why I strongly encourage you all to try it out and study the game.
I hope you enjoyed the article, and I wish you all a happy 2021 bull run! May we all come closer to retirement and financial independence!
​
TL;DR: more than a game, poker is a school of thought. It teaches you to be reasonable, to assess the risk of every single choice you make, to overcome you emotions, to play the long game rather than the short game, to make informed decisions, etc… This has made me a lot wiser in every aspect of my life, which is why I strongly encourage to try it out and read about poker strategy.
Edit: I couldn't crosspost from cc so I just copied the post as I figured it is relevant here too :)

Yeah, I know, another fucking EV. Big whoop. We all know combustion engines are going the way of the rotary phone, what makes this any different from TSLA, NIO, WKHS, BLNK, or even GM and F?
Two words: Outlets and Segway.
​

Part I: The Market

Ayro is an EV with an economic moat. Ever consider why half of the EV plays are for charging stations? It's because these things need a lot of juice, and it's hard to get filled fast. Nio admittedly has a creative approach, but the additional batteries that need to be produced to functionally expand their business model is doomed when they try to scale up. We all know battery metals are in high demand, and they do not have a solution to this problem. And while the many new, competing charging stations plays may yield some much-needed supply for rapid charging on-the-go, there is a whole gigantic market for EV use that doesn't require this constant full-refueling, and just needs a more convenient down-payment cost.
​
If anything came from the slow-motion train wreck that was Nikola, it was an awareness for the potential of EV to disrupt the shipping industry. Couple near-zero fuel costs with quick-developing self-driving tech, and we're looking at a future where Amazon could basically offer free delivery. The only problem is, logistically, a network of EVs doing autonomous delivery is going to require a fuckton of cars. You can't have massive eighteen-wheel semis rolling down fifth avenue or up to college campus dorms all day, even with hydrogen fuel cells; the amount of cash you would have to come up with just as down payment on the trucks alone would be prohibitively expensive.
​
So what does that mean? It means we need last minute delivery. The people who drive the actual vans from the Amazon warehouse to you door? That's the market we're looking at here. And I know you just shuddered at the idea of counter playing the largest business in the world, but that's the beauty of this whole thing: we aren't counter-playing the future of driverless delivery, we're supplying it. There's going to be another Nikola eventually, someone who figures it out properly, and the shipping industry is going to change overnight. Warehouses will be emptied and filled so efficiently that the demand will be on getting from the Warehouse to people's homes. Opinion: The amount of money it will cost for a fleet of EV pick-up trucks/vans, and the amount of time it will take to charge given projections by any of the major charging station plays, cannot compete with the cost and efficiency of Ayro 411 type micro-trucks.
​

Part II: The Product

What the fuck is a 411 micro truck? It's the god-damn future, that's what. The 411 is a light-duty EV made by Club Car. Yes, Club Car, the golf cart company. The company that has produced small scale electric vehicles for recreational and short distance transport since Nineteen-Fifty-Eight. If you come across any number of bot articles entitled "AYRO is a classic pump-and-dump," just remember they're partnered with the longest-standing, most consistently profitable EV company in the world.
​
The Ayro 411 is a miniature truck that can be configured as a flat bed, pick-up, or covered van during the purchase process. There are a number of additional customization upgrades, and the process feels quite akin to purchasing a Tesla Model 3. They cost about $30,000, a price tag that will only be going down as of their completion of a new factory in Texas and a new contract with Karma Automotive to produce 20,000 units over the next three years.
​
So what?
So here's what: the 411 charges on a three prong outlet. No, I'm not fucking joking. This is a truck, a 35 mph, street legal delivery vehicle that requires $0 of additional costs to function. Buy it, plug it in, drive it around. You can't go very far and you can't go very fast but guess what? Ayro doesn't give a fuck! Because that market is already dominated by Tesla, who are years ahead of a dozen other solid competitors. None of them can compete in the short-distance space. The upfront costs of their batteries and recharge stations are too much for the margins of what we're dealing in here. Tesla is only profitable right now because of EV credits; when those dry up, investors better pray they made sufficient preparations to pivot into the solar market with a stiff arm.
​
But the best part is, because Ayro doesn't compete with Tesla, their success is Ayro's. Consider Tesla's own semi play: if they produced the Hydrogen fuel cell behemoth Nikola promised, someone has to come up with a fleet of last minute delivery at some point. Amazon could do it, but guess what? All their vehicles are still combustion. That will only become less profitable (if not outright banned) in the next 10 years or so. Who will be available? Ayro, with customizable 411s. Tag on the inevitable advent of universally applicable self-driving tech, and you have the future of logistics.
​
Even without the delivery angle, these things could be massive on college campuses, at vacation resorts, or in large indoor complexes for such as sporting arenas or exposition centers. Anywhere people use a golf cart to get around now, they could be using an Ayro truck that is probably better suited for the task (except maybe an actual golf course). These could also become a boon for the ride-sharing industry, where fuel costs account for a sizeable loss of profit-margin right now.
Side note: did I mention the 411 has a food-cart model? It's made by Gallery, and it's fucking lit. This will change the game for food trucks, mark my words. Once they figure out how to get one of these bad boys with a stove on it, Ayro is going to blow up all over foodies social media, and its gonna be the new hot thing. "Micro-electric van life" influencers will surely abound. Loathsome, I know, but at least we'll get fucking rich, right?
​

Part III: The Business

Alright, u/y_u_no_mek, I'll admit I'm intrigued. But why should I trust you, a random redditor, with my precious tendies?
You shouldn't. I'm not a financial advisor. I barely have a college degree, more like an adult preschool certificate. But you know who you should trust? Rod "The Iron Cock" Keller, Ayro's CEO and guywhofucks in chief.
If you aren't familiar, in 2012 Big Rod K was already a former VP at Toshiba, Siemans, then DirecTV, before taking over as president of a then little-known and oft-ridiculed company making nifty electric transportation gadgets. Some idiots said they were the future and most people thought they looked pretty fucking stupid. Fast forward three years, and The Rod of God had turned his company into a staple of city-tourism the world over. That company? Segway. What happened to Segway under Rod Keller? It became the largest personal transport vehicle company in the world. Yeah, it's creative semantics. but guess what? He made everyone a shit ton of money. He took one of the stupidest brands/products I can think of, and made it not only profitable, but popular. This isn't an idea that should have failed, it's an idea that DID fail as soon as Keller left the company. Segway may not be the same ballpark as a proper EV, but it is at very least a testament to the man's ability to lead and grow a business. Rock-the-Stock Rod has over 25 years of experience as a tech executive- If you don't trust me, trust him.
The Club Car and Karma Automotive contracts also speak volumes for Ayro's capacity as a serious player, especially in a market where most "competitors" (who are really no threat, as we've established) are brand new startups run by over-eager, over-exuberant leadership with little-to-no experience in a budding sector (See: Nikola).
Which brings me to my penultimate point: Ayro's fundamentals. Yes, they have struggled to turn over strong profit margins in the last few quarters, and even posted some losses as recently as a year ago. But guess what? They have eight quarters of cash to burn. You don't come across that kind of cash-on-hand in the startup space right now, especially not for a company that is aggressively expanding production capacity. You know what I think? I think $AYRO stock is getting hammered by AI traders who see that low profit margin and think "this thing is a load of shit," without realizing that the source of the expense is largely investment in future profits. The company isn't old enough to get us a good sense of their ROCI, but I would venture to guess this next fiscal year will do very well for Rod "the killer" Keller and his three-pronged magic bus.
​

Part IV: The Stonk

Well if you read Lily's blog, you already know the stock market has nothing to do with fundamentals. So what do we know about $AYRO as an options derivative? Well, for one thing it already has fairly massive short interest for a low volume, a metric which will start drawing a lot more attention in the wake of #gamestonk. But more important than that, Ayro is just straight-up undervalued as an EV. EVEN IF the whole EV sector is one giant bubble, the worst of the worst bear case, Ayro can drop at most $7/share. The upside? Fucking massive. I don't know how the rest of you feel about roulette, but I prefer $5 on on 36 to $150 on black. Every EV has the potential to lose massive market cap right now (including Tesla), but the potential upside for Ayro hasn't been limited by runaway speculation quite yet. Compare, for instance, Ayro, Nio, and Tesla.
​
Nio MC: $89 Billion
Limits: Requires huge scale of battery production
​
Fisker MC: $4 Billion
Limits: scale and batteries; market dilution, distance, recharge solutions
​
Workhorse MC: $5 Billion
Limits: scale, market dilution, debts, recharge solutions
​
Tesla MC: $807 Billion
Limits: Long/expensive recharge solutions, implementation of recharge infrastructure, impractical at short-distance scale
​
Ayro MC: ^{$209 Million}
Limits: Surge protector
​
​
Wait did you say millio-

$209 MMMMMMILLION

That's right, Ayro has a market cap of 0.2% of Nio.
​
​
Stop. Take a deep breath. Look at yourself in the mirror. If you could pay $20 or 2 Cents for a bet with a similar payout, which would you take? Neither has shifty leadership. Both have strong growth potential. But one is limited by physical metal in the ground and the other is a functional product. I know which I would take.
​
​
TL;DR
Ayro is a beautiful, highly undervalued growth play with fundamentals that would make Warren Buffet himself shed tears of pure value-investor ichor. Short distance, standard outlet charging tech means it does not compete with Tesla, Nio, Fisker, or any other EV play. Solid, experienced leadership means the company has good financial sense. Market cap is wildly undervalued, even in the face of a potential EV bubble.

We like the stock